Utah, PPP, Republican primary voters -- Romney or nothing?

[pbrower2a]

If the candidates for President next year were Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Perry, and Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?

Michele Bachmann ......................................... 6%
Herman Cain................................................... 4%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 3%
Jon Huntsman................................................. 10%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 5%
Ron Paul......................................................... 4%
Tim Pawlenty .................................................. 1%
Rick Perry ....................................................... 4%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 63%

If Sarah Palin didn’t end up running for President, and the candidates were Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Perry, and Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?

Michele Bachmann ......................................... 8%
Herman Cain................................................... 4%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 2%
Jon Huntsman................................................. 12%
Ron Paul......................................................... 5%
Tim Pawlenty .................................................. 2%
Rick Perry ....................................................... 4%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 60%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_UT_07131118.pdf

[pbrower2a]

The GOP had better nominate Mitt Romney, or the Beehive State might be shaky for a Republican nominee. Utah has some Democrats, and those would probably be enough to defeat several of those nominees.

Are you on something? Utah is probably the last state in America that'll vote for Obama. Any of these candidates would easily defeat President Obama.

The favorable and unfavorable opinion reports are among Utah Republicans. I don't see how President Obama does among Utah Democrats, but any Republican nominee whose favorability  rating is in the tank among Utah Republicans is not going to get help from such Utah Democrats as there are.

President Obama obviously does not need Utah, but I can just imagine him appearing there to say some good things about Mormons in the event that the Republicans nominate a turkey.

Mitt Romney probably would win the state 75-25 even if President Obama has an approval rating of 55% in Utah. The rest? This all surprises me. Maybe Huckabee would do better than the "rest of the pack", but I can't know that as a certainty.

Take a good look at the Senate race. One potential Democratic nominee is practically even with incumbent Orrin Hatch, and way ahead of any Tea Party challenger in the Republican primary.

It is possible for Republicans to lose Utah with a catastrophically-inept nominee who would lose 40 other states. Not counting the LBJ defeat of Goldwater... Harry Truman won the state with a larger margin than the national average in 1948. FDR won the state four times. Offend enough LDS sensibilities, and Utah is no longer a reliable state for one's campaign.

[pbrower2a]

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[pbrower2a]

Before anything I would like to throw a big LMAO at Tim Pawlenty's numbers.

I highly doubt no matter who the candidate is that the state of Utah would be in play unless he or she were to murder their own child or be Casey Anthony and even then it would only be a swing state.

If anything, the large "not sure" numbers may indicate that Utah Republicans are unfamiliar with the 'alternatives' to Mitt Romney -- except Jon Huntsman, Sarah Palin, and of course Barack Obama.

[pbrower2a]

Here is the poll:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_UT_07131118.pdf

This is the statewide poll on the US Senate:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_UT_7121118.pdf

From the statewide US Senate poll I came to the conclusion that if a US Senate seat were shaky in Utah, then there are enough Democrats in the state to challenge a weakened Senate candidate.

So far there is no poll for approval of the President. I draw some conclusions that you might not draw. Still, I am satisfied that

(1) Mitt Romney will win the bulk of delegates from Utah in the Republican National Convention

(2) He would absolutely crush President Obama in a landslide within the state  -- but

(3) the low favorability ratings for potential Republican nominees other than Mitt Romney among Republicans could put even Utah at risk of an Obama win.

President Obama has no cause to visit Utah for any political reason should Mitt Romney be the GOP nominee -- except for some natural disaster, and then only because such is the political norm. But President Obama is as crafty a politician as is possible, and even he could use some scenarios for long-term gain for the Democratic Party. He would say some good things about the LDS Church if it were to his political advantage.

Basically, if Republicans want Utah to be a sure thing, then they had better nominate Mitt Romney.