NH-WMUR/UNH Poll: Only Romney ahead of Obama

[pbrower2a]

Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Bachmann

Obama vs. Palin

Obama vs. Pawlenty

Favorite Sons:


Obama vs. local favorite sons

DeMint -- South Carolina
Santorum -- Pennsylvania
Romney -- Michigan and New Hampshire
Pawlenty -- Minnesota
Thune -- South Dakota
Gingrich -- Georgia
Bachmann -- Minnesota (but I am showing her in Iowa instead because of Pawlenty)
Palin -- Arizona (she is allegedly moving there) and Alaska
Perry -- Texas
Cain -- Georgia (but I will show him in North Carolina)
Ron Paul -- Texas (but I will show him in Oklahoma for this purpose
Johnson -- New Mexico

PPP polled New Hampshire this weekend, so this set is transitory. Palin was not shown.

[pbrower2a]

Even though Romney is the best Republican for NH, I wouldn't rule out an Obama win against him yet. Obama once trailed McCain by 10 points in NH and then won by 10. Bush was leading Kerry in a UNH poll by 6 and Kerry then won the state. Also, Romney already lost 3 points in the last couple of months, because in the previous UNH poll he was leading by 50-43.

My main map shows President Obama winning against Mitt Romney in New Hampshire because of an approval rating at 50%.  It is nearly impossible to have n approval rating of 50% for a politician to have an approval rating that high and still lose. This WMUR/UNH poll has shown a strong  R bias, as I have usually seen.

[pbrower2a]

I'm surprised Bachmann does so well.

What has not been mentioned is that Romney's margin in the WMUR poll has DROPPED 3 points since April 2011. I do think this is one state that Romney could pick up, but there are other states, like GA, where Obama has the better pick-up possibility if Romney is the nominee. I will take 16 EV over 4 EV, its ok with me.

I do not think Bachman could do this well. The newness of her name is showing on this poll, nothing more.

The other state that Mitt Romney could reasonably pick up is Indiana, and I say so only out of enforced ignorance due to the lack of Indiana polls. I think that the last Nevada poll is so stale that it is now unreliable. Even IN + NH + NV is far from enough for the Republicans. I trust that the Obama campaign will flood Nevada again with campaign staff, with many even changing their legal residence to Nevada so that they can vote in Nevada as in 2008. Arizona, too?

There are advantages to being domiciled in an imaginable swing state, like getting an inordinate amount of media attention even if that attention is over trivialities instead of over one's public policy. The Republicans lose potentially a 7-EV advantage with the switch of Arizona for New Hampshire.