Romney 285
Obama 253
Obama vs. Pawlenty vs. Trump. Obama wins, unemployment is around 8.5%, gas is at around $3.20 a gallon, and his approval ratings are around 46%.
The economy had a double-dip recession for which President Obama got the fault. President Obama got the offer to cap income taxes for corporations and the super-rich from the Republican majority (basically, nobody pays more than $1 million in personal income taxes) and a nationwide Right to Work law with the abolition of the minimum-wage law, and threw it away. He thought that he could get away with it, but groups that backed right-wing politicians in 2010 lavished support for every Republican. The Hispanic vote in Colorado, Florida, and Nevada is closer to going with a 50-50 split because when it comes to economics, 'Half a loaf is better than none'.
President Obama tried to improvise a populist campaign against what he considered a pointless and unwise proposal, but money shouted. Not only did President Obama lose, but the Republicans basically undid the 2006 gains of the Democrats in the Senate. The Republicans actually made a net gain in the House.
It would have looked worse for President Obama had it not been for Donald Trump. Without the Trump vote, President Obama would have lost Iowa, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, and perhaps Minnesota. The only power that the Democrats have is the filibuster.