I flat out don't believe this poll. I doubt Obama wins NC again.
Rasmussen has pretty accurately polled NC and their last '10 poll (Oct 13th) showed Obama at a 43% approve 56% disapprove in NC, and I highly doubt he's improved since then.
Doubt is one thing. But unless you have contradictory evidence to this poll, you have no cause to make any decisive assertions about whether President Obama can win the state. I see polls for stronger-R states like Georgia and South Carolina, and they are both on the margin for going for President Obama. You can hedge all that you want, and of course you can see scenarios in which President Obama loses support nationwide with events that have yet to happen. Just don't deny polls unless they are biased or suspect.
The political scene has changed since November 2010. North Carolina has been polled extensively, and it has been surprisingly consistent. The state usually shows President Obama in a virtual tie with Mike Huckabee, a slight but firm lead over Mitt Romney, and overpowering leads over Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin. The only obvious trend is that Sarah Palin is losing whatever credibility she has very fast.
If he must campaign in North Carolina to win the state, then he wins it. I can draw some conclusions about North Carolina:
The only Republicans who have a chance of winning the state's Presidential vote in November 2012 are Washington insiders who don't have voting records to make them easy targets for negative ads by the Democratic Party and haven't made fools of themselves. I interpret that to mean former Governors Huckabee and Romney -- and perhaps former Governor Pawlenty and current Indiana Governor Daniels -- the latter two mostly on 'absence of conflicting evidence'.
