more evidence Palin probably will flame out a lot quicker than people think
I completely disagree. Fact and reason have not slowed the Palin juggernaut one bit. The more proof is shown she can't win, the more supportive her supporters become. Recently, they have begun to make the comparison to Reagan. At NRO, commenters to posts have said there is nothing different between Obama quitting the Senate to become president and Palin quitting the governorship to become a media star and then run for president.
She is the prohibative frontrunner. Despite all of the gaffes, she is still a leader in national polls and she is the leader in Iowa and South Carolina. Since she is going to skip New Hampshire, she needs to win the two states and she will be the nominee. Trust me, she knows this and that's why she is running. Because the core conservative base is so strongly for her, it's not much of a challenge for her.
Only a collapse by the current challengers and the arrival of a white knight can stop Palin. My party is determined to win by losing.
1) I think you’re underestimating the sophistication of the nomination process. It usually forces voters to set aside their self pride and try on different suits to see which one best fits.
2) There is no reason for an unbiased person to pick Palin over Pence once Pence becomes more well known.
1. A sitting Congressman has never been nominated for President by one of the major Parties for a very long time. VP? Sure. Geraldine Ferraro and Jack Kemp, both well-respected Congressmen from New York State, were nominated. Both lost in landslides and did not swing their states' votes.
2. Pence is still a comparative unknown among the vast majority of potential Republican voters in caucuses and primaries. Coming out of nowhere against a faltering leader is a difficult-enough proposition even if one is well known. But a comparative unknown? Pence can win only in the event of a brokered convention in which he is a compromise choice between several candidates who can't win but can't seal the deal, either.
3. Unless the nominating process has no obvious leader after Super Tuesday, the leader of the time almost always wins.
