Who is most likely to beat Obama?

[pbrower2a]

Himself.

At this point re-election is his to lose.

If you want a sports analogy, it is the fourth quarter of a football game and as the quarterback of a team up by two touchdowns  and a field goal and the ball on the opponents' 30-yard line as the two-minute warning approaches he must avoid throwing an interception or handing the ball to a runner who has a tendency to fumble.

We know what the interceptions are and what the fumbles are -- scandals, international debacles, a severe economic downturn, and extreme gaffes in a political campaign.

[pbrower2a]

Himself.

At this point re-election is his to lose.

If you want a sports analogy, it is the fourth quarter of a football game and as the quarterback of a team up by two touchdowns  and a field goal and the ball on the opponents' 30-yard line as the two-minute warning approaches he must avoid throwing an interception or handing the ball to a runner who has a tendency to fumble.

In that situation, the QB will take a knee to run out the clock! Don't you know anything about football?!

Of course I know the usual strategy -- you try to use the clock so that the other side has no chance at getting 17 points. But there might be people on this Forum who know nothing about American football. I could talk about the nickel defense that allows the other team to score a touchdown, but in a time that the team behind can't get away with. 

In essence, the election of 2012 is for President Obama to lose, and not for someone else to win. Vanity and folly can appear in unlikely places, and we all know what can defeat President Obama.

[pbrower2a]

Your just highlighted the Republicans' biggest problem with 2012--all their A-list candidates are relatively new to the job.  McDonnell or Christie would each be excellent Presidential candidates if we could fastforward 4 years to where they would have more than a year in office before running again.

Both are likely candidates for 2016 and could win should the Democratic nominee be weak. One thing is sure: that candidate will not be President Obama. In the meantime, the GOP must undo its extreme image. Should the GOP win one or both Houses of Congress in 2010 and act as they do in winning (they will in no way moderate before January) they will have even more damage to undo.