2012-PPP: Huckabee within 3 points of Obama

[pbrower2a]

I'm so proud of it this guy is definitely the best republican with Romney.
He's even tied with Obama among lower incomes.

There was never a Presidential election in American history as 2008, in which income correlated less with voting than any other. Ethnicity, religion, education, and the urban/rural divide mattered more. Two of the poorest counties in America, Owsley and Martin Counties in Kentucky voted about 3-1 for John McCain. Explanation: they are very white. The richest county in America, Loudoun County in Virginia, voted for Obama. Loudoun County is one of the best-educated counties in America.

Democrats used to win the votes of under-educated, poor white people; such is no longer so. Religion may be the difference; poor whites with low levels of education gravitate heavily toward Protestant fundamentalism which teaches that the Bible is greater truth than, for example, Newton's laws of motion and the atomic theory of matter. Or it could be that Protestant fundamentalists gravitate toward severe poverty.

Don't worry; Huckabee is unlikely to win over the educated people who used to vote regularly for the Republican Party when it wasn't so tied to the superstition-mongers.

[pbrower2a]

General Election

President Barack Obama: 47%
Mike Huckabee: 44%

President Barack Obama: 47%
Mitt Romney: 40%

President Barack Obama: 49%
Newt Gingrich: 41%

President Barack Obama: 52%
Sarah Palin: 38%

Favorables among all voters:

Huckabee: 45-28
Romney: 37-34
Palin: 40-49
Gingrich: 33-42

Favorables among GOP voters:

Palin: 72-16
Huckabee: 66-13
Gingrich: 56-21
Romney: 52-18

PPP conducted a national survey of 909 voters from August 14th to 17th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.3%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_National_820.pdf

Split the difference, leave any remainder as if it is to go to third parties.

Translation into states voting (using the Cook PVI and a +10 gain for an unambiguous Favorite Son effect):

Obama  51, Huckabee 48:

Obama       307
Huckabee   218
Tie                13

Pale colors under 5%, white is a virtual tie

Ohio, Florida, Colorado, and Virginia will be nailbiters.  

Obama 53, Romney 46

Obama   338
Romney  174
Tie            26


It looks much like 2008, doesn't it? Obama barely loses Indiana; Missouri and North Carolina get interesting.


Obama 55, Gingrich 45

Obama   374
Gingrich  153
Tie            13

Gingrich's performances begin to look mediocre in the South. At best for him  he trades Arizona for Indiana.   This time the networks call the election before the votes from the West Coast start coming in.


Obama 57, Palin 43

Obama 401
Palin     135
Tie           3

Such is the brink of a GOP disaster -- with the disparity in popular vote reminiscent of Eisenhower versus Stevenson in 1956.

.....

The Cook PVI rates states on how much more or less Republican or Democratic they voted as opposed to the national average in 2000 and 2008 or in a Congressional district in 2008. Nothing says that the states will vote in any particular pattern, and it can't predict what the percentages will be in 2012. These maps are estimates. Electoral votes are shown for 2008. Relative popularity and unpopularity of politicians will of course change due to events and of course campaign behavior (including selection and positioning of campaign ads).