Are dems punching above weight in Iowa? (user search)
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  Are dems punching above weight in Iowa? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Are dems punching above weight in Iowa?  (Read 1723 times)
Unelectable Bystander
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Posts: 1,110
« on: August 29, 2023, 08:02:18 AM »

Admittedly it's a statistical tie with the margin of error and all that and that the DRA numbers are actually kind of funky to begin with but notable that Trump possibly did better amongst white voters in Virginia than in West Virginia.

EDIT: But per the exit poll Trump won 54% of white voters in Virginia. I just think the DRA numbers are real off.

DRA numbers for the state as a whole are probably more accurate than exit polls, since data smudging and the absentee ballot vagueness of VA disappear in the aggregate.
Just did some quick math and indeed the VRA numbers are impossible.

Virginia was about 58% white alone and 62% white self reported last census. If we take the lower number and don't regard higher whire turnout 0.58×0.75=over 43%, and Trump received 44% in VA. That means he would have to received almost no votes whatsoever from the non-white voters. 1/42=2.3% so accounting for third parties Biden would still have to have won over 95% of the non-white vote!

That’s not what this statistic is saying. It is excluding whites in precincts where they make up less than 90%. In Virginia that is equivalent to saying “Trump received 75 of the vote in the whitest rural areas in the western part of the state and maybe a few NOVA exurbs.”
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