Unelectable Bystander
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,113
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« on: December 15, 2022, 08:39:54 AM » |
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Is it possible that “lower turnout” (relative to presidential) benefits solely democrats in white areas and benefits solely republicans in diverse areas?
This might explain:
-The extent of the R strength in the 4 biggest states (even though all 4 were likely primed to improve on Trump’s numbers even with presidential turnout, for various reasons)
-The rust belt’s relative lean being much further to the right in recent presidential years compared to recent midterms. It might also explain why Wisconsin, where R’s rely more on educated areas compared to Michigan and Pennsylvania, has held up much better for R’s in midterms than the other two.
-Plains states trending left this year
-Nevada
-Georgia not trending as far left as it could have in recent midterms (Kemp’s wins, Walker’s close loss, etc)
-Weird county results, like Mahoning being on of the few areas in Ohio to not swing left
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