Unelectable Bystander
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,111
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« on: October 25, 2022, 05:54:17 PM » |
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3 factors I think. First, it’s a generic D vs generic R in a state that tends to swing with (and even match) the national environment. If it’s truly a good republican year, Nevada should follow that pattern.
Second, there are factors unique to Nevada that make it seem primed to shift right (low college %, relies on driving, etc).
Finally, I think some of us have a bias where we are mentally preparing for the other 3 to lose, so you think “they can’t possibly be so unlucky to lose all 4 of the big races, so Laxalt will definitely win”. In reality, the weakness of others doesn’t actually make him stronger, so we’re probably slightly overestimating his chances and potentially even underestimating the others chances (even though he is by far the most likely to flip a seat red).
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