2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Unelectable Bystander]

Come on guys there is some serious momentum here, the Washington post says so. There’s still time for Dems to win the generic ballot in Wisconsin by 17 points like Biden

[Unelectable Bystander]

Fox already posted 7 Rs on GCB there is no brutal than that

CNN will show possibly Republicans with 8-9 Point lead.

Cut it out, the inerrant pollster king YouGov has spoken and they say it’s D+6

[Unelectable Bystander]

The survey of 1,577 U.S. adults, which was conducted from May 3 to May 6, found that registered voters initially preferred a generic Democrat (44%) over a generic Republican (39%) by 5 percentage points when asked how they would vote in their district if the congressional election were being held today.

But when voters were asked to choose instead between a “pro-choice Democrat” and a “pro-life Republican,” GOP support fell to 31% while Democratic support held steady — more than doubling the gap between the two candidates, to 13 percentage points.

https://news.yahoo.com/new-poll-reveals-warning-signs-for-gop-on-abortion-ahead-of-midterms-205241999.html

Serious question: do you believe YouGov polls and think they provide valuable data?

[Unelectable Bystander]

Monmouth has R+7

50
43

Yeah, Roe being overturned isn't going to save Democrats.

Abortion has never been a winning issue for Democrats and Roe has been a contentious topic in every presidential race I can remember, so not sure what is supposed to be surprising about that?

When the Obama 2012 campaign made it an issue, they only did it through careful and select targeting directed at segments of the electorate already favorably disposed to them (e.g. only on certain radio stations), not in a way that would have attracted the attention of the entire electorate or antagonized other voters.

I can’t imagine it’s helping with Hispanics that MSNBC types are talking about abortion “joyfully”. The best thing for R’s is to overturn it in the middle of inflation and move on. Dems will look more and more out of touch if they keep talking about it in the midst of other issues

[Unelectable Bystander]

I also think a lot will depend on individual GOP candidates, the increasing salience of abortion after red state legislatures make laws punishing women....a lot of people haven't tuned into everything just yet.

I love how quickly you guys switched from "the increasing salience of abortion" to "the increasing salience of abortion after red state legislatures make laws punishing women" and from "after people hear about the Roe v. Wade leak" to "a lot of people haven’t tuned in to everything just yet" after post-leak polling & primary results didn’t produce your desired result and didn’t confirm your preconceived narrative. You couldn’t ask for a better (implicit) admission that the Democratic narrative about abortion dramatically changing the state of the race was always just blatant wishful thinking akin to the 'low-propensity Trump voters will stay home in 2022' (which you were also very vocal about).

Throw in the extremely predictable "candidate quality" takes...

it seems like GOP is going to win generic races and probably blow some big swing state races with horrible candidates.

and some poll 'unskewing'...

Looks like R+4 not 7

and you have your perfect recipe for some delicious coping mechanism.

You gotta be kidding if you think some candidates that take Todd Akin level stances on abortion in statewides races in PA, MI, NV won't cost the GOP some seats. I said GOP is going to take the House minus something completely unforeseen. But laws that have the support of 27% of the country will
hurt the party enacting them, not unlike the way the far left activists nearly poisoned Dems into losing both the presidency and the House in 2020.

And yes candidate quality matters, Mastriano is not Glenn Youngkin. As far as state laws go, don't rule out something completely ridiculous coming after the decision is handed down. Roe being overturned is different than previous years because it was always just a hypothetical.

The problem is that 95% of R candidates who have yet to be elected are declared ‘weak’ by democratic posters on this board. Glenn Youngkin being a recent example. I remember the day after he won the primary everyone talking about how his nomination clinched the win for McAullife. It’s hard to take candidate quality takes seriously after that.

Exactly. It made me laugh a bit that Youngkin is now the epitome of good R candidate (it’s probably true), because not only did people on here think that he was no better than a generic R but most actually thought he was an awful candidate

[Unelectable Bystander]

New NBC poll has GCB tied at 46-46

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/support-abortion-rights-hits-new-high-midterm-outlook-stays-mostly-unc-rcna28869

Great poll for R’s, NBC is extremely D biased

[Unelectable Bystander]

If Dems can outperform Biden's approval by 8% then they're not in terrible shape, given his ~42-43% average approval right now nationally.

This doesn’t really make any sense. For that to be the case, the generic ballot in those districts would need to be 50-50. It’s more likely 45-45 or something like that, meaning that they are barely outperforming Biden with a ton of the undecideds being Biden disapprovers.

Also, they’d be at more than 39% in the poll top line if this over-performance was actually occurring

[Unelectable Bystander]

It’s amazing that the two prominent D hacks on this board are only able to find generic ballots with D leads. It’s radio silence on the R +8 D internal or the R +5 Qpac polls

[Unelectable Bystander]

https://qctimes.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/republican-esther-joy-king-leading-17th-congressional-district-fundraising/article_b8355674-81c0-5c3b-8b29-4b56adb13157.amp.html

By the way for some reason esther joy King is a really good fundraiser for this biden +7 seat in Illinois. Also for some reason IL Dems left this seat really weak.

If it turns out to be a red wave I think it will be characterized by this seat flipping and not being particularly close due to turbo-charged trends and getting no turnout from Rockford

[Unelectable Bystander]

https://twitter.com/amyewalter/status/1529125971089149953

Huh, I thought Republicans were ideological purists and Democrats were the big tent party.

I was thinking the same thing. Why is it that a diverse set of views keeps winning R primaries while D’s continue to throw incumbent moderates out on the street?

[Unelectable Bystander]

D+4 generic ballot on Morning Consult. Was D+2 on May 18th and EVEN on May 4th.
https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1529451927565631488?s=20&t=GE_-ejk...

Does this imply a D trend? If so, Harris just came out with an R +2 poll and the highly regard YouGov is even R +4

Also, that Twitter account is quite bizarre. A dog asking for a treat for releasing (strictly D biased) polls?

[Unelectable Bystander]

Does anybody know which races cook changed today? It’s behind the paywall and charging that much is ridiculous

[Unelectable Bystander]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1532797679247536135?t=RMFe8sG7WYMMLvI1tkZ...

Incredible result for a D-leaning pollster. I think I’m ready to back Youngkin for president. Proven winner

[Unelectable Bystander]

I’ll believe it if we get a bunch of legitimate polls (CNN, Fox, Emerson, Cygnal, maybe even Suffolk/Quinn)  consistently showing the same thing. Marist and Morning Consult are the two worst pollsters, not to mention these articles are so biased they sound like straight up propaganda.

One issue I see right away is that if you multiply the Marist  opposition in each party ID by the 2020 party ID’s (37, 36, 26), you only get about 53.5% opposing instead of 56%. That shows Dems are quite oversampled

[Unelectable Bystander]

Yahoo/YouGov now has D+7, double from their last poll

But perhaps most importantly, the new Yahoo News/YouGov poll shows that 45% of registered voters now say they would vote for a Democrat for Congress if the election were held today, versus 38% who say they would vote for a Republican — a 7-point gap that has nearly doubled since last month. And when explicitly asked to choose between a “pro-choice” Democrat (47%) and a “pro-life” Republican (32%), that same gap actually doubles again, to 15 points.

https://news.yahoo.com/poll-confidence-in-supreme-court-collapses-as-just-33-agree-with-decision-to-overturn-roe-v-wade-090021689.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw&tsrc=twtr

Sorry but you are very gullible if you think there’s any chance of a D+7 vote this year and a D+15 vote in any year

[Unelectable Bystander]

Yahoo/YouGov now has D+7, double from their last poll

But perhaps most importantly, the new Yahoo News/YouGov poll shows that 45% of registered voters now say they would vote for a Democrat for Congress if the election were held today, versus 38% who say they would vote for a Republican — a 7-point gap that has nearly doubled since last month. And when explicitly asked to choose between a “pro-choice” Democrat (47%) and a “pro-life” Republican (32%), that same gap actually doubles again, to 15 points.

https://news.yahoo.com/poll-confidence-in-supreme-court-collapses-as-just-33-agree-with-decision-to-overturn-roe-v-wade-090021689.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw&tsrc=twtr

Sorry but you are very gullible if you think there’s any chance of a D+7 vote this year and a D+15 vote in any year

the way people on this forum just miss the point...

I got the point and I agree that the popular vote could have gone from R+6 to R+2, the same shift they are implying. I was more questioning  why you would post such a laughable poll with no commentary or analysis unless you actually work for the DNC

[Unelectable Bystander]

Yahoo/YouGov now has D+7, double from their last poll

But perhaps most importantly, the new Yahoo News/YouGov poll shows that 45% of registered voters now say they would vote for a Democrat for Congress if the election were held today, versus 38% who say they would vote for a Republican — a 7-point gap that has nearly doubled since last month. And when explicitly asked to choose between a “pro-choice” Democrat (47%) and a “pro-life” Republican (32%), that same gap actually doubles again, to 15 points.

https://news.yahoo.com/poll-confidence-in-supreme-court-collapses-as-just-33-agree-with-decision-to-overturn-roe-v-wade-090021689.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw&tsrc=twtr

Sorry but you are very gullible if you think there’s any chance of a D+7 vote this year and a D+15 vote in any year

the way people on this forum just miss the point...

I got the point and I agree that the popular vote could have gone from R+6 to R+2, the same shift they are implying. I was more questioning  why you would post such a laughable poll with no commentary or analysis unless you actually work for the DNC

Because this is the Generic ballot poll thread and this is a new generic ballot poll. Are you dense? I'm sorry that the result is not to your liking, oh well.

Let me rephrase. Post all the hack polls you want, but I think you should at least occasionally accompany them with some kind of commentary (other than the implied “Blue wave incoming!”). Everybody here knows that a pro-life R would never lose by 15 points to a pro-choice D, so it’s a waste of time unless there’s a new point to be made. The point of the forum is for quality discussion, not convincing us all that we’re always in a blue wave.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Just a reminder that Harvard is registered voters. Even 538 acknowledges that midterms are simultaneously both more republican and more “anti-incumbent” than the usual electorate (meaning 2022 will provide R’s with two boosts) so this points to R +3 or 4

[Unelectable Bystander]

Even 538 acknowledges that midterms are simultaneously both more republican and more “anti-incumbent” than the usual electorate

Really? I don’t think you can argue that 2018 was more Republican than either 2016 or 2020. Can you make that case?

Historically it has been the case that Republicans voted more reliably, but with large numbers of highly-educated Republicans moving away from the party and being replaced with lower-education voters, we could see that trend change.

Republicans benefit from the anti-incumbent factor so far but voters may have started to realize that on some issues, the incumbent President is Clarence Thomas rather than Joe Biden.

That is 538’s interpretation. They said something along the lines of “2018 was a neutral electorate because the anti-incumbent boost canceled out the pro-republican boost”. Now I also don’t buy that Trump would have lost by 8 points in a 2018 presidential election, so I would tend to agree with you that democrats definitely outvoted republicans in 2018. The midterm propensity gap certainly has closed due to R’s improving with uneducated voters and D’s improving with educated voters. I would still say that it slightly favors R’s though, at least until there’s evidence that whites aren’t outvoting minorities in midterms and that older people aren’t outvoting younger people.

This, combined with incumbency effect, makes me quite certain that the likely voters are more right leaning than registered voters in this cycle. Polls have shown the same thing I believe: the likely voter generic ballot is to the right of the registered voter generic ballot at this point

[Unelectable Bystander]

This is a typical midterm, Dems will lose big time, the only question is when do the polls move in the GOP favor like they did for 2014.

Before this Spring I would have agreed with this, but things have changed.  A typical midterm features high motivation by the party out of power and lower motivation by the party in power.  The overturning of Roe v Wade, by all indications, is amping up Democratic energy to a competitive level.  This is not to say that the normal midterm advantage for the out party has been wiped out; that is unlikely.  But it's fair to say that it looks like the advantage will be considerably reduced from a typical midterm.

I agree with the idea that D turnout will be higher than it otherwise would have been before Dobbs, but the way these polls are measuring it is straight up stupid. Sentences like “72% of Dems are more likely to vote while only 30% of R’s are more likely to vote after the decision” are extremely misleading. For example, if those every single one of those 72% of Dems was planning on not voting, then yes it’s huge. If all 72% were already voting, then it’s absolutely meaningless. We should be getting 2x2 tables of voting intention before decision and voting intention after decision by party in order to measure anything.

If I had to guess, I’d say 70-80% of those “more likely to vote” Dems were always going to vote, and 90+% of the “more likely to vote” R’s were always going to vote, so that’ll give D’s some comparative turnout boost. But there’s a lot more R’s in the no effect category and many will be voting

[Unelectable Bystander]

Money doesn’t vote for f**ks sake.

Of course it doesn't. But people really trying to pull this "money doesn't matter!" narrative are just being incredibly naive. Of course it matters, and it especially matters in competitive races.

So funny now that Rs are doing badly in the money race and all of a sudden fundraising makes no difference.

There seems to be a misunderstanding on this board.

Republicans like polls but simultaneous realize that they are generally too favorable to Dems. It’s not about disliking polls that don’t fit the narrative and it’s not unique to this cycle.

Republicans don’t think fundraising means anything and it’s not unique to this cycle. And yes it is becoming apparent that fundraising has been traditionally overrated, as Nate silver just reduced the amount of weight it has in his model

[Unelectable Bystander]

Why is this forum so obsessed with the of Biden disapproving democrat voters? It’s obvious that they exist, it’s not physically possible for democrats to only get 38% of the vote. I believe this is a decent pollster but it’s obvious the undecideds will break R for multiple reasons:

1) This is apparently a registered voter poll even though CNN acknowledges in the article that R’s lead in enthusiasm and motivation

2) The usual midterm electorate already gets whiter than presidential elections and this will be even more so the case this year based on polling. Various polls have shown minorities being apathetic towards Biden, more focused on the economy than culture issues, and in some cases even shifting republican

3) The super majority of undecideds are still Biden disapprovers. Not only do they outnumber Biden approvers almost 2-1 to begin with, but a higher percentage of them are still undecided compared to approvers, based on CNN’s wording. There’s a good chance these people break heavily Republican or just stay home. Yet Dems on this forum truly believe that undecided disapprovers are somehow loyal Dems

[Unelectable Bystander]

Echelon Insights, July 15-18: D+4 among LV, D+7 among RV.

https://twitter.com/EchelonInsights/status/1549857224461369344
More details in other tweets in the thread.

Good, an 11 point shift right from their Biden +15 poll

[Unelectable Bystander]

Watch the polls FAIL like in 2020!

The generic ballot showed a lead for the Democrats just as Youngkin and other fellow GOP members were romping their way through otherwise blue-ish states. I trust them about as much as Alex Jones atm.

Youngkin ran in 2020?

My point was that 2021 showed a continuation from 2020 of polls consistently overestimating the blue team, especially at the broader national level. So I expect a similar outcome this November.

I asked this twice for the people on here fully trusting generic ballot and arguing that 2020 doesn’t prove that the underestimation is systematic. Nobody has a good answer for it. The “environment” had to be something like R+8 at that time in order for those results to have happened. You can argue that Virginia and New Jersey had some unique state-specific issues, but it was also all over the country in local elections such as R’s easily winning Jacksonville/Duval and the Long Island races. The generic ballot at the time was literally a D lead

[Unelectable Bystander]

I’m excited for when the GCB is like D +2 and most people are truly expecting the house to hold. It’ll make for a great meltdown, even better than it would have been before when we were heading for R+7