CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Unelectable Bystander]

What is this, Nov. 7, 2012? The bolded reads like a parody of "emerging Democratic majority" talking points and sounds like something Steve Schmidt and Kyle Kulinski would both (unironically) subscribe to.

Also really hard to take any analysis seriously that labels Dianne Feinstein a "center-right politician." Some people really need to get out of their bubble and actually pay attention to recent political/coalition-related trends rather than having wishful thinking and their personal preferences for what the two parties' coalitions should look like cloud their judgment.

All I see in this response is condescension covering up a completely non-existent argument for your position lol. The fact remains that the GOP's racist rhetoric lost them California for a generation and will do the same. It's well-established in the peer reviewed lit, which I hold in higher esteem tbh than the cantankerous posts of someone who I've seen be wrong many times in this forum. In Nov of 2012, the GOP held numerous seats in CA that are either Dem or soon-to-be Dem (bye Garcia!) and very diverse, so there's some data for you that backs up my claims. Come back and snark at me when the GOP wins a recall instead of wasting milions of dollars to barely outperform their standard performance in what was otherwise a Republican wave year lol. What other trends could you be talking about besides the results of actual elections lol?

My point is that popular culture, despised as it is by Trumpers, still rules public opinion in CA. And it does elsewhere, but has less power. I remember when people like you made the exact same argument you're making now about gay rights. The thinking was that it was an artifact of liberal America and something that rural and southern states couldn't get behind, ever. And nonetheless,  PRRI recentlly found majority support in nearly every state for legal same-sex marriage. And a wealth of empirical literature links that to television, film, and social media disseminating liberal America's changing values on gay rights to young people across the nation. I never said that Republicans demonizing Hollywood is why anyone votes against the GOP, but rather that their culture war has poisoned their image with young and diverse voters. And that's also well supported by data.

What annoys me the most about responses like this it the accusation that I "live in a bubble." Sorry, I live in Los Angeles, the second biggest city in this country and one of the largest in the world. I spend every day talking about politics with my neighbors and community members, and by the way spent a whole year getting them to vote against the Democratic machine for a no-name, DSA candidate in a wealthy and relatively white city council district. So, I have a pretty good pulse on what they think. And I know it's fashionable here, as elsewhere, to finger wag at urbanites about how they "don't understand normal people" because I admittedly don't understand what motivates white, poor people in Montana to vote for a party that takes from them to give to the rich. But you equally don't understand anything about the normal people I encounter every day, who hate the GOP with a burning passion and everything it stands for, and who came out to vote in the millions, many for the first time, to boot Trump out of office and to rescue our governor from a Republican recall. There are millions of progressives in places like California, most of them working class and not some weird rich college kid caricature that fits your narrative. And there are also millions of center-right people of color who will never vote GOP because it's synonymous with racism. I don't get why this is controversial or confusing for you, when Rick Caruso himself just announced he was becoming a Democrat yesterday for the same rationale I just provided. The GOP brand is toxic anywhere that's young, hip, or diverse, and that's not going to change any time soon. Come to LA and ask why Larry Elder motivated so many progressives to come out to vote when they wouldn't have. It's not because of your fantasy that he was somehow conservative in the wrong way lol.

As you yourself note NJ and VA, where the electorate was older, whiter, and had lower turnout, were good races for the GOP while they got buried in CA. So, it looks like your counterevidence actually just bolsters my point. As the rest of the nation tends toward diversity, the Millennial generation, and higher voter turnout, it will pose challenges to a very unpopular, frankly uncool GOP.

This is possibly the single most arrogant and condescending thing I’ve read on this forum, perhaps worse than the original post he was commenting on. Get some fresh air!

[Unelectable Bystander]

What is this, Nov. 7, 2012? The bolded reads like a parody of "emerging Democratic majority" talking points and sounds like something Steve Schmidt and Kyle Kulinski would both (unironically) subscribe to.

Also really hard to take any analysis seriously that labels Dianne Feinstein a "center-right politician." Some people really need to get out of their bubble and actually pay attention to recent political/coalition-related trends rather than having wishful thinking and their personal preferences for what the two parties' coalitions should look like cloud their judgment.

All I see in this response is condescension covering up a completely non-existent argument for your position lol. The fact remains that the GOP's racist rhetoric lost them California for a generation and will do the same. It's well-established in the peer reviewed lit, which I hold in higher esteem tbh than the cantankerous posts of someone who I've seen be wrong many times in this forum. In Nov of 2012, the GOP held numerous seats in CA that are either Dem or soon-to-be Dem (bye Garcia!) and very diverse, so there's some data for you that backs up my claims. Come back and snark at me when the GOP wins a recall instead of wasting milions of dollars to barely outperform their standard performance in what was otherwise a Republican wave year lol. What other trends could you be talking about besides the results of actual elections lol?

My point is that popular culture, despised as it is by Trumpers, still rules public opinion in CA. And it does elsewhere, but has less power. I remember when people like you made the exact same argument you're making now about gay rights. The thinking was that it was an artifact of liberal America and something that rural and southern states couldn't get behind, ever. And nonetheless,  PRRI recentlly found majority support in nearly every state for legal same-sex marriage. And a wealth of empirical literature links that to television, film, and social media disseminating liberal America's changing values on gay rights to young people across the nation. I never said that Republicans demonizing Hollywood is why anyone votes against the GOP, but rather that their culture war has poisoned their image with young and diverse voters. And that's also well supported by data.

What annoys me the most about responses like this it the accusation that I "live in a bubble." Sorry, I live in Los Angeles, the second biggest city in this country and one of the largest in the world. I spend every day talking about politics with my neighbors and community members, and by the way spent a whole year getting them to vote against the Democratic machine for a no-name, DSA candidate in a wealthy and relatively white city council district. So, I have a pretty good pulse on what they think. And I know it's fashionable here, as elsewhere, to finger wag at urbanites about how they "don't understand normal people" because I admittedly don't understand what motivates white, poor people in Montana to vote for a party that takes from them to give to the rich. But you equally don't understand anything about the normal people I encounter every day, who hate the GOP with a burning passion and everything it stands for, and who came out to vote in the millions, many for the first time, to boot Trump out of office and to rescue our governor from a Republican recall. There are millions of progressives in places like California, most of them working class and not some weird rich college kid caricature that fits your narrative. And there are also millions of center-right people of color who will never vote GOP because it's synonymous with racism. I don't get why this is controversial or confusing for you, when Rick Caruso himself just announced he was becoming a Democrat yesterday for the same rationale I just provided. The GOP brand is toxic anywhere that's young, hip, or diverse, and that's not going to change any time soon. Come to LA and ask why Larry Elder motivated so many progressives to come out to vote when they wouldn't have. It's not because of your fantasy that he was somehow conservative in the wrong way lol.

As you yourself note NJ and VA, where the electorate was older, whiter, and had lower turnout, were good races for the GOP while they got buried in CA. So, it looks like your counterevidence actually just bolsters my point. As the rest of the nation tends toward diversity, the Millennial generation, and higher voter turnout, it will pose challenges to a very unpopular, frankly uncool GOP.

This is possibly the single most arrogant and condescending thing I’ve read on this forum, perhaps worse than the original post he was commenting on. Get some fresh air!

Cool, but whether what I said is "condescending" or not, the GOP is just wasting its time in diverse places like California because most of us perceive them as a party for bigots and know-nothings. Up to y'all to decide whether or not accept that reality. Newsom gonna win by 20+ points either way

I have an easy idea, I’ll call you a bigot too. You are clearly intolerant towards those having differing opinions from yourself. Isn’t that the definition of bigotry, and isn’t that an accurate statement? Your bigotry is blinding you from seeing these points but I will make them anyways:

1) Trump does not represent all republicans. Those same diverse people that rejected Trump also voted for a Korean American female republican and a Hispanic male republican. The number of female house republicans multiplied this cycle. The California GOP backed a black man for governor. That doesn’t sound like a racist or a sexist party to me.

2) Nobody cares if the GOP wins the California governor’s mansion and, as far as I’m concerned, it will forever be a lost cause for the GOP because of how many republicans are leaving for Florida and others.

3) Per Gallup, a plurality of Americans and almost an outright majority of Americans currently identify as republican leaning. Per multiple polls, Americans have a higher disapproval rating of the Democratic Party. What you are suggesting is simply untrue on a national scale.

4) Hollywood is one of the most hated institutions in America. It is clearly an asset, not a liability, to oppose institutions that are privileged and wealthy. Republicans should embrace being called the party of stupid people, because it only takes away from them being accused of being the party of wealthy corporations. That is a net benefit.