Colombian congressional and presidential elections - March 13/May 29/June 19, 2022

[Sebastiansg7]

Last Invamer poll, perhaps the top pollster in Colombia:

First Round:

Gustavo Petro - 43.6%
Federico Gutierrez - 26.7%
Rodolfo Hernández - 13.9%
Sergio Fajardo - 6.5%
Milton Rodríguez - 1.5%
Enrique Gómez - 1.1%
Ingrid Betancourt - 0.5%

Second Round Petro vs Gutiérrez:

Gustavo Petro - 52.4%
Federico Gutiérrez - 45.2%

All indicates that the second round will be between Petro and Gutierrez, although there have been indications that Rodolfo Hernández and Sergio Fajardo could join forces, which would be a particular alliance given that both candidates are polar opposites in character -not necessarily so in policy-. However, I don't think that such an alliance would reach the second place that currently Fico Gutiérrez holds.

[Sebastiansg7]

Yes, Rodolfo Hernandez has been doing better in the latest polls, getting very close to Fico Gutierrez. Rodolfo is also more likely to beat Petro in the second round according to the same polls. Right now, right wingers and anti-petristas alike, are debating whether to support Fico who is still ahead by a few points, but is more likely to lose against Petro, or to support Hernandez.

[Sebastiansg7]

Just came back from the polls. Honestly, it didn't seem that there were more people this time than during the parliamentary elections back in march. Anyways, hopefully Fico does not make it to the second round. The guy only knows how to put on a show, as he is an incompetent who has the backing of uribismo behind him.

[Sebastiansg7]

Just came back from the polls. Honestly, it didn't seem that there were more people this time than during the parliamentary elections back in march. Anyways, hopefully Fico does not make it to the second round. The guy only knows how to put on a show, as he is an incompetent who has the backing of uribismo behind him.

Isn't a low turnout rate bad for Rodolfo Hernandéz?

I don't think the low turnout will be low, but I also don't feel like it will be extraordinarly high, although is just anectodal evidence from seeing the turnout in my neighborhood a couple of hours ago.

And a low turnout would definietly be bad for Rodolfo and good for Fico. Rodolfo needs all the new potential voters he can possibly get in order to beat Fico, who has more backing from traditional political structures.

[Sebastiansg7]

First national count:

Federico Gutiérrez - 45.2%
Gustavo Petro - 32.1%
Rodolfo Hernández - 14.1%
Sergio Fajardo - 6.9%
John Milton Rodríguez - 0.4%
Enrique Gómez - 0.2%

[Sebastiansg7]

Was the Colombian high court's abortion ruling this year a very prominent part of the political discourse during the campaign? Did anyone make a big deal of it?

Not really, it quickly leaved the news cycle because other controversial topics took the spotlight, although candidate John Milton Rodríguez did propose a national referendum to override the court's decision.

[Sebastiansg7]

Most analysts were sure that Fico would take the Eje Cafetero Region, but in Caldas Rodolfo is winning, and in both Risaralda and Quindío Petro is winning, which is very shocking to me.

[Sebastiansg7]

This will be an extremely close runoff. I am more leftwing than rightwing, so in theory I should vote for Petro, but Petro does not know how to explain his controversial policies in a satisfactory manner, which leaves me many doubts about him. Rodolfo Hernández, on the other hand, is a populist candidate solely fix on corruption, and with little else to offer so far, the most I've heard him say is a policy of import substitution for agricultural products.

[Sebastiansg7]

The anti-establishment guy who the press is saying is Colombia’s Trump/Bolsonaro is more likely to win against Petro in the runoff, right?

Absolutely. Not only is he more likely win, he might actually do so.

[Sebastiansg7]

This is a superficial observation, but its amusing how the coastal-interior divide in Colombia is an inversion of Peru.

That is because Colombia's hinterland is more developed than the coasts, and has more ethnic minorities, and Petro is popular among the ethnic minority urban and rural poor.

[Sebastiansg7]

I don't see how Petro can break 50%, I think he already lost. I'll probably still vote for him with much skepticism (not particularly a fan of the guy). The problem with Petro is that he carries too much baggage for the majority of people from medium to small cities, and rural areas in the Colombian hinterland.

[Sebastiansg7]

Well, it's been raining in most of the country during this afternoon, this might depress the turnout.

[Sebastiansg7]

It's very surprising to me that the turnout increased, especially in the Caribbean Coast, after the heavy rains that fell ini that region during this afternoon. This is no minor issue since in the 2016 peace agreement referendum, part of the reason why the yes option lost was because turnout was depressed in the caribbean coast because a Hurricane was passing through.

[Sebastiansg7]

Honestly, the Rodolfo campaign during these weeks was very bad. I don't know what was the rationale, perhaps Rodolfo Hernandez did not even want to win in the first place? I don't know.

He didn't show up for the debate, he didn't campaign anywhere, didn't make any trips to the regions where he needed to pick up votes, and during the last two weeks, he spent most of his time in Miami, literally the place where he needed to campaign the least since the immigrant Miami electorate is probably the most right wing, even more right wing than the upper class neighborhoods of Medellin.

[Sebastiansg7]

Honestly, the Rodolfo campaign during these weeks was very bad. I don't know what was the rationale, perhaps Rodolfo Hernandez did not even want to win in the first place? I don't know.

He didn't show up for the debate, he didn't campaign anywhere, didn't make any trips to the regions where he needed to pick up votes, and during the last two weeks, he spent most of his time in Miami, literally the place where he needed to campaign the least since the immigrant Miami electorate is probably the most right wing, even more right wing than the upper class neighborhoods of Medellin.

Wait, he's living in Miami, Florida, USA??? You're kidding me...  

He has a house there, and he stayed in Miami during almost two of the three weeks of the second round campaign, arguing that there were threats against his life.

[Sebastiansg7]

Those Upper class areas are Rodolfo/Right wing territory. Neighborhoods like Chapinero Alto, Santa Barbara, Cedritos and Chicó are the traditional living areas of the upper class, and upper-middle class in the city, and they are safe places for the right. However, there is a considerable center-left and left electorale as well, mostly academics, cultural professionals, intellectuals, and so on.

[Sebastiansg7]

Suba actually has more middle and lower class neighborhoods, the wealthier areas are all in the eastern part of the locality, and have a much lower population density (mostly groups of apartment buildings that we call here conjuntos residenciales). Rodolfo definitely lost this locality, and by a significant margin.

Usaquen is pretty diverse. The southern part, neighborhoods such as Santa Barbara, La Carolina and Unicentro, are very wealthy, and safe for the right in every election. In the middle we have the big Cedritos neighborhood that is mostly middle and upper middle class, and that is a swing area. In the north of Usaquen, we see a socioeconomic profile more similar to the southern part of the city, and Petro must have won here. So my guess is that Rodolfo won Usaquen, but as you have said, by a slimmer margin.

Chapinero on the other hand is mostly upper-middle and upper class, but it has the particularity that lots of intellectuals, university professors, academics, artists, etc, live there, and they tend to be leftists, so even if Chapinero is always won by the right, the margins are never as stark as they are for example in El Poblado in Medellin or in the South of Cali.

[Sebastiansg7]

Another thing that causes the extreme right wing vote in the immigrant community in the US, particularly in Miami, is that many of them are of paisa origin.

In general terms, around 2/3 of people from the Paisa region tend to be naturally right wing, and these characteristics are accentuated when they move to Miami for some reason, probably has to do with their networking with Cuban and Venezuelans, the big trucks, the yachts, and so on, although I doubt that many of the immigrants can take yacht trips, or buy huge expensive trucks.

I can tell you this because I am actually from Medellin (I've been living in Bogota for almost 9 years now).

[Sebastiansg7]

Serious question, is there a more right wing area in South America than El Poblado in Medellín? Those 85+% victories of the right that are common there must be something rare even among the wealthiest boroughs/neighborhoods in the continent.