I was at a bookstore a few years ago, and I came across this book:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Next_100_Years (Wikipedia article also includes a good summary)
It was interesting but it felt a lot more like speculative fiction at the time. Until the beginning of the first section started to become true:
In the 2010s, the conflict between the US and Islamic fundamentalists will die down, and a second Cold War, less extensive and shorter than the first, will take place between the United States and Russia. It will be characterized by Russian attempts to expand its sphere of influence into Central and Eastern Europe, coupled with a buildup of Russian military capabilities. During this period, Russia's military will pose a regional challenge to the United States. The United States will become a close ally to some Central and Eastern European countries, all of whom will be dedicated to resisting Russian geopolitical threats during this period. Friedman speculates in the book that the United States will probably become a close ally of some Eastern European countries: Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania. Around 2015, a Polish-led military alliance of countries in Eastern Europe will begin to form, which is referred to in the book as the "Polish Bloc."Now, I'm not saying everything in the book will happen, in fact a lot of it looks a bit crazy. (U.S. vs. Mexico War, a Japan-Turkish-German-French alliance against the U.S.-China-UK-India, Poland as a leading superpower that dominates Russia?). I do agree with the instability of Russia and China, but the book's splitting of the EU into completely separate states with opposing alliances doesn't seem realistic.
If you've read the book, (or at least read some of the summary) what were your thoughts?
