Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497448650003423235?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...
Out of a force of 190,000, that’s 2-3% attrition in 48 hours. That’s a staggering amount if accurate.

So Ukrainians are inflicting casualties at a 6:1-8:1 rate if I am correct?

If you believe Ukrainian estimates of Russian casualties, which I don't.

I do believe that Russia is taking much heavier than expected casualties based on what we've seen in places like Sumy and Chernihiv.

Which is understandable, but I'm just basing it off the reports we have rn.

Taking into consideration the expected biases of sources helps in piercing the fog of war a tiny bit. I've been hearing that an invading force needs a 3:1 manpower advantage to overwhelm a defending force. Based on the fact that Russia is advancing, but facing unexpected difficulties, I'd guess that Ukraine is inflicting casualties at a 2.5:1 to 3.5:1 ratio.

[Aurelius]

Russia is NOT the same threat as Nazi Germany or even the USSR, and people desperate for action need to stop pretending otherwise.

It's true that there is a certain type of bored, NEET westerner who is hoping for action for action's own sake simply in order to bring excitement to their otherwise dreary life.

However, it's unquestionable that Putin's playbook has shifted from his old approach of nibbling around the edges of his neighbors, to outright conquest. It's very likely that his 2 years of COVID isolation either made him insane, obsessed with his place in the history books, or both.

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1497461221527891969

If Russian forces continue advancing east to Berdyansk, that opens them up for a four-pronged assault on Mariupol from Berdyansk, Donetsk, the Black Sea, and the Russian border. The southern front of this war is not looking good for Ukraine. If Russia can capture Mariupol to link up the occupied areas in the south with DNR and LNR, that's a very big setback for Ukraine.

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1497479675463049221
Kadyrov to deploy Chechen forces.

God help Ukraine and Ukrainians. I'm not a very religious man but I'm praying for them right now.

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/Ondrejcsak/status/1497524166160965636
Slovakia punching way above its weight.

Meanwhile Germany gave 5,000 helmets.

[Aurelius]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-chechen-leader-says-his-forces-deployed-ukraine-2022-02-26/?taid=621a48a73cade0000100f946&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

Chechen deployment now confirmed. God help all Ukrainians, this will be ugly.

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/Ondrejcsak/status/1497524166160965636
Slovakia punching way above its weight.

Meanwhile Germany gave 5,000 helmets.

Germany have actually given quite a lot of anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons now.

Glad to hear it. Hadn't seen that. Wish they'd stop dragging their feet on SWIFT now.

[Aurelius]

!!!

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1497653598498570246?s=20&t=ou2LzDEOjRNuiOnGHK...

About damn time.

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1497654757581893634

[Aurelius]

Ukraine has killed off the Chechen general

https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1497640933625577473?s=21

God is great!

[Aurelius]

Idk how accurate this is

https://mobile.twitter.com/globalismstan/status/1497663038232530944

That's if you uncritically believe Ukrainian estimates of Russian fatalities, which there's no good reason to this early in the war. If those estimates were accurate, Ukraine would be inflicting casualties at a 10:1 ratio, which would mean Russia was not advancing as fast as they are most likely.

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/imraansiddiqi/status/1497607326487826435

The news anchor is objectively correct, but feel free to clutch pearls over the fact that he didn't use the latest approved euphemisms.

[Aurelius]

Idk how accurate this is

https://mobile.twitter.com/globalismstan/status/1497663038232530944

That's if you uncritically believe Ukrainian estimates of Russian fatalities, which there's no good reason to this early in the war. If those estimates were accurate, Ukraine would be inflicting casualties at a 10:1 ratio, which would mean Russia was not advancing as fast as they are most likely.

Honestly, this feel-good that Ukraine is putting out might lull the West into complacency. "We have it under control guys! But still, please send us more arms!"

Doubt it. Even Germany has donated a bunch of equipment in the last few hours. Tiny countries like Slovakia are punching way above their weight in material aid. I would like to hope that European and American leaders are smart enough to distinguish Ukrainian internal morale-boosting propaganda from reality.

[Aurelius]

BREAKING: EU closes entire airspace for Russian planes, German news just report.

https://twitter.com/MatthiasDeiss/status/1497671385686196228

Good to hear. Finland was the last major bordering country with open airspace, and Russia might have retaliated it they'd closed their airspace themselves. EU doing it as a bloc gives Finland cover.

[Aurelius]

The news anchor is objectively correct, but feel free to clutch pearls over the fact that he didn't use the latest approved euphemisms.

Explain further.

By all the objective measures of "civilizedness" - meeting a basic standard of living, state consolidation, developed civil society, state monopoly on force, level of societal violence in peacetime, etc, Ukraine performs far better than Iraq which itself performs far better than Afghanistan.

The direct point he was making is also correct: Baghdad and Kabul have been sites of nearly continuous conflict for some decades now, whereas Kyiv hasn't seen any until now since WW2 and as such has a populace unaccustomed to war.

Unfortunately we have reached a point where it is considered wrongthink to make basic comparisons between nations for fear that people may get offended.

I don't have much interest in discussing this further, I'd much rather focus on the events on the ground in Ukraine.

[Aurelius]

Sumy is a major victory for Ukraine. Kyiv surviving last night also was stunning.

On the flip side, Russia’s taking of Gostomel airbase may doom Kyiv tonight and of course all those troops near Brest are going for an attack on the West where there aren’t so many troops.

I fear that all the people who fled west to Lviv and didn't continue into Poland or Slovakia or Hungary will be in for a nasty surprise soon.

If I were in charge of Ukraine's military strategy, I'd be massing troops and equipment behind the mountains around Uzhhorod to prepare for a last stand in Ukraine's one true natural citadel, as a fallback for if/when Kyiv and other major cities fall.

[Aurelius]

Sumy is a major victory for Ukraine. Kyiv surviving last night also was stunning.

On the flip side, Russia’s taking of Gostomel airbase may doom Kyiv tonight and of course all those troops near Brest are going for an attack on the West where there aren’t so many troops.

I fear that all the people who fled west to Lviv and didn't continue into Poland or Slovakia or Hungary will be in for a nasty surprise soon.

If I were in charge of Ukraine's military strategy, I'd be massing troops and equipment behind the mountains around Uzhhorod to prepare for a last stand in Ukraine's one true natural citadel, as a fallback for if/when Kyiv and other major cities fall.

The terrain of Ukraine is as flat as the American Midwest (North European Plain, remember), and that allows for an army built like the Russians to advance pretty quickly...if they want to. At least, the terrain is permitting for that sort of thing.

Mostly yes. The eastern 2/3 is very flat. The western 1/3 has scattered hills, valleys, and ravines. And the far western 2-3% of the territory is tucked behind 6,000 ft high mountains, creating a nice natural fortress.

[Aurelius]

Map of the current situation:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg/3000px-2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg.png

My analysis:

1. Russia is not far from linking up its southern advance with the Donbas provinces. Mariupol and Berdiansk will be critical. If Russia can take those cities they control Ukraine's entire Azov coast and can push northward to Zaporizhia. Mariupol in particular was a very pro-Russian city during Euromaidan though I suspect less so now.

2. Kharkiv and Sumy are still holding out so far. These two eastern cities will be crucial to stopping Russia's advance from the eastern border. If they can maintain strong resistance and bog down Russia's forces that'll distract them from being able to quickly advance across the wide open tanker country to the west. If those cities fall there's very little between them and Kyiv.

3. Chernihiv remaining standing has been crucial to blocking Russian pathways toward Kyiv. As it stands, this forces them around to the northwestern approach through the Chornobyl zone, and the Kyiv Reservoir prevents them from using the northeast approach without first taking Chernihiv.

4. The southern advance has been the fastest of any front in part because it is the flattest, most wide open land of anywhere in Ukraine. However, the large reservoir along the Dnieper near Nikopol and Zaporizhia will be a major obstacle. I don't know if there are bridges across this reservoir but if so I expect Ukraine will be taking big stands there and ready to destroy the bridges if necessary. Hard to get tanks across a big body of water.

5. More generally, because Eastern Ukraine is so flat and wide open, resistance in the cities crucial to keep Russian forces held up because there is so little in the way of natural terrain to slow them down. The chain of reservoirs on the Dnieper, though, provides a strong line of defense for Ukraine to regroup if the eastern cities fall and Russia sweeps across that expanse. I would not be surprised to see a major engagement in Dnipro or Zaporizhia soon.

6. Looking much farther ahead on this one, but I can see a possibility of Russia taking Mykolaiv and then surging up the Southern Bug to attack Kyiv from the back door, especially if the eastern front turns into a stalemate.

I don't know much about urban warfare so I can't say much about the situation in Kyiv.

Fingers crossed that the crucial cities stay standing and that this broad advance from the southern and eastern fronts does not come to fruition.

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/NatSecGeek/status/1497587401501327361
https://twitter.com/YourAnonNews/status/1497298554381119491
So glad to see Anonymous getting its hands dirty again.

Anonymous are effectively the 21st Century version of Antifa, except mainly focusing on cyber actions vs street fighting.

"You watch the neighborhood, we'll watch the skies."

--Richard "Beebo" Russell

[Aurelius]

The ever strong Ukraine-New Jersey alliance: https://twitter.com/Ukraine/status/1497712275402235907?s=20&t=8ZMsliRwDI1vig...

We need to hear bronz's thoughts on this

It's only natural that people want to live with people who are like themselves. Russians should get a place to live with other Russians, Ukrainians should get a place to live with other Ukrainians, and they should leave each other alone and live in peace. What's so wrong with that?

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/fatimatlis/status/1497797874771451905
Hopefully true

VOA, so I'm skeptical. Hoping that it's true though. Would love to see further confirmation.

[Aurelius]

Sumy is a major victory for Ukraine. Kyiv surviving last night also was stunning.

On the flip side, Russia’s taking of Gostomel airbase may doom Kyiv tonight and of course all those troops near Brest are going for an attack on the West where there aren’t so many troops.

I fear that all the people who fled west to Lviv and didn't continue into Poland or Slovakia or Hungary will be in for a nasty surprise soon.

If I were in charge of Ukraine's military strategy, I'd be massing troops and equipment behind the mountains around Uzhhorod to prepare for a last stand in Ukraine's one true natural citadel, as a fallback for if/when Kyiv and other major cities fall.

The terrain of Ukraine is as flat as the American Midwest (North European Plain, remember), and that allows for an army built like the Russians to advance pretty quickly...if they want to. At least, the terrain is permitting for that sort of thing.

Mostly yes. The eastern 2/3 is very flat. The western 1/3 has scattered hills, valleys, and ravines. And the far western 2-3% of the territory is tucked behind 6,000 ft high mountains, creating a nice natural fortress.

That's partly what I'm getting at actually. Ukraine has its own version of the Driftless (quite hilly terrain and all), but it's mostly flat.
The only really major thing that it has that the Midwest really doesn't an equivalent of, is the Carpathians.

You're right. Ukraine is a midwestern state: South Dakota. And South Dakota is a European nation: Ukraine.

Very flat eastern half? Check. Moderately more rugged western half? Check. Mountain range in the far west? Black Hills :: Carpathians. Elevation of highest mountain? 7,244 ft :: 6,762 feet. Big river running down the middle splitting it in half? Missouri :: Dnieper. A series of big reservoirs along that river? Check. Capital city on that river? Check. Eastern half is richer than western half? Check. Western half is one of the poorest places in its country :: continent? Check. Eastern half is more socially conservative? Check. Western half is more economically conservative? Check. Well known for corn and wheat agriculture? Check. Ethnic minorities in concentrated parts of the western half? Lakota, Dakota :: Hungarians, Bulgarians.

Mind. Blown.

[Aurelius]

In contrast to the based commies in Japan, our breed of commies are f*****g morons.

https://mobile.twitter.com/CpusaDepartment/status/1497944574961938432

Blame America first... never change.

[Aurelius]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/27/world/europe/germany-military-budget-russia-ukraine.html

Here's the article about German military budget increase. I remain skeptical of the 2% target by these liars piggybacking off us.I think 1.75% is actually what should be spent ideally but a target is a target and these cowards have hid behind the US for 15 years

OK, easy now. The US military budget would not be one cent smaller if every NATO member had spent 2% of GDP. Infact, the extremely large US military budget really has no relation to NATO at all.

If Germany properly funded their military, for example, we wouldn't need a bajillion troops stationed in Germany because they'd be able to provide those troops and the equipment themselves.

This is no longer the Marshall Plan era where the US was the only major industrialized country not devastated by WWII. It is long past time for our allies to step up and contribute their fair share, and I'm glad some of them are finally realizing that.

[Aurelius]

I get that national stereotyping is passé, but Chechens just seem like a peculiarly nasty people. Godspeed to the Ukrainians in giving Kadyrov's thugs a beating.