Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Aurelius]

Seeing talk about a "Ghost of Kyiv" - a Mig-29 fighter pilot who has allegedly taken down 4 Russian planes around Kyiv today. If true, Ukraine's got themselves one of the first genuine fighter aces in a long time.

[Aurelius]

Seeing talk about a "Ghost of Kyiv" - a Mig-29 fighter pilot who has allegedly taken down 4 Russian planes around Kyiv today. If true, Ukraine's got themselves one of the first genuine fighter aces in a long time.

Just one more from ace-dom.

If the Ghost is real, they may be there already:
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497017441288916994

The Ghost is in a MiG-29, so this would be a different pilot.

[Aurelius]

https://mobile.twitter.com/hawkerhellfire/status/1496991536571109381
https://mobile.twitter.com/MaxKennerly/status/1497023689212280840

Maybe too soon, but I can already hear the Sabaton song in my mind.

[Aurelius]

https://mobile.twitter.com/OSINT_Ukraine/status/1497091109578706945

Turkey is going to tread very carefully around the Montreux treaty. Still worth watching.

[Aurelius]

https://mobile.twitter.com/OSINT_Ukraine/status/1497100193283686402

Ukraine has launched a ballistic missile into an airbase in Russia. 🇺🇦💪

[Aurelius]

This thread is about the Russia-Ukraine war, not American immigration policy.

[Aurelius]

Call IT support, the simulation broke again.

https://mobile.twitter.com/DonutOperator/status/1497114514713714688

[Aurelius]

A Ukrainian I follow on Twitter is claiming 2,800 Russian casualties. I am extremely skeptical and consider this number to be pulled out of thin air. Impressive PR operation all in all. CNN was mostly uncritically repeating the "800 dead Russians" claim last night.

----

https://mobile.twitter.com/nseskuria/status/1497173675774255118

[Aurelius]

The Ukrainian leadership are, broadly speaking, a fair bit younger than their Russian counterparts and count a number of ‘performers’ (not least Zelensky and Klitschko) in their ranks, so between that and the fact they’ve operated in a semi-democratic environment for a number of years it’s not surprising that they’re better at PR than the Russians (also helps that many western outlets are happy to uncritically repeat anything they say).

Another example:

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497196067271680025

I guess Stalingrad never happened.

And the 2,800 number again:

https://mobile.twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1497214326213652480

[Aurelius]

Apparently China is Ukraine’s largest investor. Second largest export partner. And largest import partner.


China doesn’t care what happens to Russia or Ukraine. Only their bottom line. Their Bottom line will be hurt if Putin continues his schemes.

And if China openly backs Russia, the Western world will cut off acccess For Chinese businessmen.

Russia and China have become important partners. They committed to a "no limits partnership" not long ago. They have similar revanchist interests (Ukraine, Taiwan).

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1497232931940667396

Translation from Baghdad Bob from English if we're being pessimistic:

Russian forces have passed Chernihiv on their way to Kyiv. The bulk of the forces have advanced to about 50km of the city center. Clashes are beginning in the northern suburbs as the main body of the forces approaches.

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/rich_goldberg/status/1497303369865646081?t=-V9Vq7dphxBnvmTDo...
Ugh

Kerry should've been taken to the political glue factory a decade ago. He is vile.

[Aurelius]

This is big:

https://twitter.com/alexrossmusic/status/1497242538415046657

This strikes me as inappropriate BRTD-esque "all Russians are evil" tomfoolery.

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1497316041663332363

Zelensky's former press secretary, so this is highly credible.

There is incentive for both sides to hold talks: Russia has done far worse than most observers had expected, and in the long run Ukraine's army will not be able to hold off Russia's army.

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1497322791095484416
Bulgaria closes its airspace to Russian planes. RIA is a Russian news agency, so this is credible. Russian news is not going to make something like this up.

[Aurelius]

What's the latest credible information on the situation in Kyiv?

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1497316041663332363
Zelensky's former press secretary, so this is highly credible.

There is incentive for both sides to hold talks: Russia has done far worse than most observers had expected, and in the long run Ukraine's army will not be able to hold off Russia's army.

Very good news to hear.
May peace prevail in Ukraine.

If Russia really agreed to these peace talks because their army has fumbled the ball in Ukraine let's hope that this also means that Putin doesn't try to squeeze them dry in negotiations (recognition of Crimea as Russian territory and the entire Donbas as independent, putting into writing that Ukraine won't seek NATO membership etc.). Because if he does we either could be back to square one rather quickly because Ukraine then pulls out of the talks or if Ukraine agrees to those terms Putin will come out of the whole thing victorious after all.

Crimea is already done deal, crucial for Russian navy.

A realistic solution might be:

Russian Crimea

Autonomous Donbas as part of Ukraine

Constitutional neutrality (Austria Style) with Russian guarantees in return

Ukraine can pursue EU

If Russia actually truly just wants security assurances or to dominate its neighborhood like a schoolyard bully, something like this *might* work. And Crimea does actually make more sense with Russia than with Ukraine, so it's not even entirely abhorrent. However, Putin has broken previous treaties with Ukraine, so why should they trust he will hold fast to this one? And furthermore, why should Ukraine agree to give up its dreams of NATO when being a member of that organization would protect it against the exact crap that is happening right now? (I'm not saying NATO should accept Ukraine as a member, just that Ukraine should be allowed to retain its aspirations)

If Putin does want to restore the old Russian Empire, then it will not work. Because in that case, all his talk about blood and soil and how Ukraine is rightful Russian territory isn't just propaganda for domestic consumption, it reflects Putin's actual intentions. Thus it would only delay the next invasion 5 or 10 years. And since the constitutional neutrality would presumably prevent Ukraine from accepting western weapons aid, we couldn't even help them arm up for the next one in the meantime.

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1497231580951162886?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle...

I really hope that this is intended as propaganda for internal consumption, and that the situation is not that dire.

[Aurelius]

The sheer numbers of casualties so far, especially on the Russian side, have been astonishingly violent for this type of war. The waste of life on a tyrant's post-imperial brooding...

I'm skeptical of the casualty numbers. It's very early, fog of war is still thick, and Ukraine has incentive to inflate Russia's casualties. I'm rooting for Ukraine but that doesn't mean we have to uncritically believe everything their spokespeople put out.

[Aurelius]

What progress are the Russian troops making with their "denazification" efforts btw??


https://twitter.com/Ukrainerabbi/status/1497292070276550656

When Russia talks about Nazis in Ukraine, they're playing Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon except it's six degrees from anyone who has expressed even tepid support for Stepan Bandera.

Back in 2014 Russian internal propaganda kept flipping back and forth between "Nazi coup" and "Jewish coup". Nothing to do with actual Nazis.

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497448650003423235?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...
Out of a force of 190,000, that’s 2-3% attrition in 48 hours. That’s a staggering amount if accurate.

So Ukrainians are inflicting casualties at a 6:1-8:1 rate if I am correct?

If you believe Ukrainian estimates of Russian casualties, which I don't.

I do believe that Russia is taking much heavier than expected casualties based on what we've seen in places like Sumy and Chernihiv.

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1497460304443318274
https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1497464792361099264
By some miracle, there were no casualties from this. But so much for Russia making an effort to avoid citizen casualties, "brother peoples" and all that.

[Aurelius]

Zelensky alive and in Kyiv:

https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1497450802851373056

This is great but Brooooooooo stop showing yourself in front of easily recognizable buildings!

You're a symbol at this point, you have a duty to stay alive.

I agree with you, but the bolded is, of course, exactly why he's doing it.

^

If Zelensky martyrs himself, after so publicly putting himself in the storm of battle, that will motivate Ukrainians to fight on even harder, I think.

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1497467189779218433

We ought to be airlifting supplies, both civilian and military, into Lviv at a rate to rival Berlin in 1948.

[Aurelius]

Even if Russia succeeds in sweeping across almost the whole country, I wonder if Ukraine could retreat behind the Carpathians and form a rump state based in Uzhhorod for the time being to regroup. Uzhhorod is only 2 miles from the Slovakian border, and Russia would be taking a massive risk by attacking it. All it would take is one stray missile to trigger Article 5. It would also be a mountainous, geographically secure redoubt in an otherwise flat and wide open country.