Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Aurelius]

Pro-Russian source, affiliated with my favorite batshlt crazy Russian nationalist Anatoly Karlin. Take with a huge grain of salt. The reports out of Kharkiv have been concerning since last night, and internal Ukrainian propaganda seems like it's been saying a lot in what it doesn't say.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1497986649803968515

From a broader perspective, even Karlin seems to believe Russia's strategy is a bad one, as he retweeted this:

https://mobile.twitter.com/blob_watcher/status/1497993708926431232

Remember that MRDA and its converse are good tools to pierce through the propaganda. If a source says something that goes against its usual biases, it's probably worth giving some credence to.

[Aurelius]

Biden and NATO forces should go to Lviv or even better Uzhhorod and demand Putin withdraw immediately or risk war. There is more than enough justification, and I genuinely think MAD paranoia has really gotten blown out of proportion.

Even if it doesn't go nuclear I would like to avoid a world war.

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/b_nishanov/status/1498008314218745861

How can it be that the Russians were pushed back and are still 30km from the city (per US) and they some encircled it including from the south west now?

Who’s lying and why

I trust Klitschko here much more than I trust propagandists like Ponomarenko. Why would the mayor of a city falsely say the city is under siege?

(Note than when I say "propagandist" I'm not saying Ukraine is bad or evil or equating them to Russia. I've been using "propaganda" as a value neutral term for source anslysis. To me it simply means someone whose primary aim is something other than spreading accurate information. Booster accounts that spread morale for their side are an example of this.)

[Aurelius]

If Kyiv is truly under siege that is a very bad development. Either way, it appears that the westward sweep toward Kyiv across the plains of NE Ukraine that I predicted last night is coming true. The latest out of Kharkiv does sound better than what I was hearing last night though.

[Aurelius]

Does Ukraine have drones? Wondering if us Americans could give them some.

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/samueloakford/status/1498020453088043010?t=w6S_KqNFB1aoC7wCx...

Wow. Maybe the Ukrainian numbers that seemed ridiculous were right all along.

[Aurelius]

LMAO

https://mobile.twitter.com/kgb_files/status/1498022629814456324

Unfathomably based. Slava heroyam!

[Aurelius]

That TASS release linked in the tweet doesn't provide numbers, and it claims Russian losses are less than Ukrainian losses. Anyone know what Russian source the twitter guy saw the 4,300 figure in?

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/TheInsiderPaper/status/1498063410189250563

Freedom fries all over again.

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/ArmedForcesUkr/status/1498188528638902275?s=20&t=BHhQ5YG...
Google Translation:

Total estimated losses 🇷🇺 from 24.02 to 28.02 as of 6.00
 Aircraft 29
 helicopters 29
 Tanks 191
 Armored fighting vehicles 816
 Cannon 74
 SAM BEECH 1
 City 21
 Automotive 291
 Tanks 60
 UAV OTR 3
 Ships / boats 2
 Air Defense Means 5
 Personnel approximately 5300 (to be specified)

Even if the number of Russians killed were half what is being reported by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, it would be astonishing. If it really is over 5,000? Wow.

Take it with a huge grain of salt. The progress of the war so far is consistent with a Russian:Ukrainian death ratio of around 3:1 to 4:1.

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1498196443865452545

Mind that air superiority is not air supremacy.

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1498187986634215424

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1498178611916034054

Kyiv Independent, so take it with a grain of salt. If true, reinforces that the Belarus talks were a sham all along.

[Aurelius]

For a bit of comedy, here's a flashback to 2014:

https://twitter.com/JerryDunleavy/status/1485082384764747776?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1498241669166252033

Talks have begun.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1498242274756550665

Putin to call cabinet meeting to discuss economic impact of sanctions.

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/RantyToo/status/1498258214659530758

Let's go General Mud!

[Aurelius]

BREAKING

Mass shelling of urban area of Kharkiv

I will not share Videos of casualties, but can confirm I've seen multiple people dressed as civilians laying on the streets.

https://twitter.com/olehbatkovych/status/1498255697460412417

uKrAiNiAnS aRe BrOtHeR pEoPlEs, wE wAnT tO pEaCeFuLlY wElCoMe tHeM iNtO mOtHeR rUsSiA

[Aurelius]

Vovochka turning Kharkiv into Grozny 2.0.

Have the batshlt crazy commenters on Karlin's blog who want to kill all Ukrainians taken control? Or the LDPR? Or some other group of crazy russkiye ultranationalists?

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1498254388409810944

[Aurelius]

BREAKING: US Treasury prohibits Americans from engaging in transactions with Russia's Central Bank, essentially freezing its assets currently held in the US.

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1498277900621336577

[Aurelius]

We desperately need to get involved NOW.

My guy. Your country is providing equipment and military intelligence to Ukraine, and helped organise one of the most coordinated sanctions packages in history. That’s how the West intervenes.

Sending our planes, ships or troops would be the opening salvo in an East-West war and take us within inches of nuclear war. That’s why we’re running non-direct action, and that’s why I find this cheerleading so disturbing.

Last I heard, Poland is providing MiGs to Ukraine along with pilots to fly the planes. That's as damn close as we can get to actual boots on the ground without provoking a massive broader war.

I actually don't know how it doesn't count as direct intervention. I'll leave that to the strategerists.

[Aurelius]

All I will say is, expect nearly every country that can to try and produce their own nuclear weapons after this. Plenty of countries had the capability but didn’t push it or fully invest into it because there was not enough of an incentive. This (and Iraq to a smaller extent) is the breaking point. I’m glad y’all wanted to avoid nuclear war, but in doing such we have made nuclear war even more likely in our limited future.

Yeah. Nuclear nonproliferation is dead as a dog now, and this was the final nail in the coffin.

Libya had a nuclear weapons program. Gaddafi dismantled it to placate the West. A decade later he was sodomized to death in a drainage ditch, on video.

Iraq had a nuclear weapons program. After the first Gulf War, the coalition destroyed their materials and the UN banned them from restarting it. A decade later, Saddam was dead.

Ukraine inherited nuclear weapons from the Soviet collapse. They agreed to give them up in exchange for the US and Russia both guaranteeing its territorial integrity. This is now the second time Russia has went to war on Ukraine, contravening that guarantee.

Meanwhile, North Korea has spent decades developing nukes, in the midst of massive sanctions meant to try and stop them, and now they have a small but usable arsenal. Kim is still standing (more likely sitting, since he's morbidly obese) and no one dares mess with them.

After seeing all this play out over the last few decades, why the Hell would any national leader be dissuaded from pursuing nukes?

[Aurelius]

Nexta has backtracked almost immediately. Talks are not over, the delegations were taking a break.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498306376916996097?cxt=HHwWgsC4jcTthsspAAAA

Nexta has proven to be an incredibly unreliable news source. I would have been shocked if the talks finished that quickly, so I disregarded that report.

[Aurelius]

Bastards did it

https://mobile.twitter.com/GicAriana/status/1498285954401980418

I hope Putler finds himself a convicted and imprisoned war criminal when this stuff is over.

Preferably an unalived war criminal. I don't want to chance no Napoleon-on-Elba BS.

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/VitalikButerin/status/1498012161439932430

Based.

[Aurelius]

CNN reporting a new advance towards Mykolaiv.

I suspect this is part of a move to attack Kyiv through the back door by going up the Southern Bug and then through Bila Tserkva. Hopefully I am wrong and/or it fails.