Rothenberg Senate Rankings

[Landslide Lyndon]

Unless Crist jumps into the race, then it is the definition of a toss-up.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Unless Crist jumps into the race, then it is the definition of a toss-up.

No it's not.  The Florida GOP machine is considerably impressive and Florida's top two GOP frontrunners (Rubio, Mack) would be favored over the two people already declared for the Dems (Meeks, Gelber).  Meeks comes from one of the most liberal districts in the entire country, but could emerge victor if Hildebrand does something amazing with him, but he's non-amazing until proven otherwise.

I mean, Mack's last name is quite powerful and Rubio could make inroads in a waffling, electorally significant group that's trending Democrat (Hispanics).

All of these could happen. But until they happen the race remains a toss-up.
Just remember that a year ago Florida was considered safe for McCain.

[Landslide Lyndon]

It was considered relatively safe for McCain because the automatic presumption wasn't that Obama was going to win by 7% nationwide.

McCain still did relatively well there, especially considering he was outspent by how much?  3-1, 4-1?  If McCain didn't do horribly overall he would have won the state, and if McCain was the son of someone who was Senator of Florida until 2001...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Connie_Mack_III

Don't forget that Obama was hampered by the whole Democratic primary fiasco.
And we saw how well Tom Kean Jr. fared at New Jersey. After all, this is the same Connie Mack who took heat from his constituents because of his No vote for the stimulus.

[Landslide Lyndon]

That article claiming Connie is taking heat from his district, it wasn't serious article (and the writers of it should be slaughtered for food) and Florida is the political opposite of New Jersey.

Obama was hampered by the whole Democratic primary fiasco how?  Like he was in Michigan?  Are you insane or just crazy?

In what sense the article wasn't serious?

And before calling someone names perhaps you should watch your own arguments.
Florida the exact opposite of New Jersey? And silly me thought Mississippi or Kansas in that context.

And why do you seem so surprised by the fact that Obama was hampered by the Florida debacle?
He couldn't campaign in the state, he couldn't hire staff, he couldn't advertise, like he did in the rest of the states with obvious beneficial results (Indiana and North Carolina anyone?).
And not only that, but he was painted by the Clinton camp as some kind of villain who wanted to disenfranchise the voters of Florida.


  

[Landslide Lyndon]

PA Lean Takeover but NH just Toss Up?

At least in New Hampshire the Democrats have a more than credible candidate who is currently against nobody.
And how someone as cautious as Rothenberg has already written off Specter? I'm not saying that things are looking good for him, but the primaray is one year away. Who knows what happens until then?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Castle's entrance surely alters the race fundamentally but putting it Lean Takeover is a bit drastic IMHO.

Castle, like Beau, has a lot to prove.
Does he have the fire in the belly?
Can he keep the fundraising pace with the Biden/White House machine?
Can he overcome the Democratic tilt of the state in a race where he is not the incumbent?

He is a very strong candidate but he isn't a Mark Warner. And he certainly won't have running against him a Jim Gilmore.   

[Landslide Lyndon]

Can he keep the fundraising pace with the Biden/White House machine?

It's Delaware.  The standard NRSC McConnell-Cornyn money machine will be more than enough.  I fully expect McCain to throw 500k Castle's way as well.

It's my understanding that the Philadelphia market ain't cheap.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Is Gillibrand really safe? Her approval ratings aren't too hot...

Pataki was the only Republican who could have taken her down, and he's out.

No, Rudy can take her out..

LOL!

The only thing Rudy can take out is the garbage.