GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[Landslide Lyndon]

Early vote numbers for the 1st day Georgia senate runoff

https://www.georgiavotes.com/

15,829 have voted. Don't think much can be inferred yet.

I don't think we can infer much from early voting numbers, period.

Jon Ralston disagrees.

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WTF is wrong with these people?

https://twitter.com/isaacstanbecker/status/1598738872355065856

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Word on the ground is there has been high turnout of both werewolves and vampires.

But what about Libertarian zombies?

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https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1600298717667418112

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https://twitter.com/GartonArthur/status/1600309939058221059

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https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1600310238489366530

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https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1600313575226060800

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https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1600314000943640576

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https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1600314708157833218

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https://twitter.com/dcg1114/status/1600314911972012033

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https://twitter.com/ET_Californian/status/1600325699415441408

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https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1591846859798360064

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https://twitter.com/DanaHoule/status/1600375402878435328

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https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1600531473135636480

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Any theory for why Walker improved so much in Northern Georgia specifically? It's really the only region that had a clear swing toward him from November (the rest of rural GA was a wash and obviously metro Atlanta and other major cities swung toward Warnock). Why could that be? I heard it was raining pretty bad there on Election Day, but if that depressed turnout it should have hit Republicans harder since proportionally more Democrats voted early.

Perhaps Hispanic dropoff, similar to what happened in West Texas?

Are there so many Hispanics living at Georgia's Appalachian counties?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Any theory for why Walker improved so much in Northern Georgia specifically? It's really the only region that had a clear swing toward him from November (the rest of rural GA was a wash and obviously metro Atlanta and other major cities swung toward Warnock). Why could that be? I heard it was raining pretty bad there on Election Day, but if that depressed turnout it should have hit Republicans harder since proportionally more Democrats voted early.

Perhaps Hispanic dropoff, similar to what happened in West Texas?

Are there so many Hispanics living at Georgia's Appalachian counties?

It’s like 10%, but that could def matter around the margins.

There are 10% Hispanics in the entire state but I'd expect the vast majority of them to live in Atlanta, not Rabun county.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Overall, polling was great again! Warnock +3 in the end, and that was close to the average. Warnock expanding on his previous high of +2.0 over Loeffler is really impressive, especially in a Biden midterm.

Really irked me too how the CNN panel reacted last night. Instead of giving Warnock credit, it was nothing but "Walker was bad!" Yes, Walker WAS bad, but Warnock likewise was a fantastic candidate and deserves just as much credit. Dana Bash was of course cringe as usual, not only realizing that Warnock's lead would grow (it was like +0.8 at this moment) when she was like "WHY IS THIS SO CLOSE?!!!!" to Amy Klobuchar, despite them all also dooming that night acting as if Walker was going to win, and acting like GA is some blue bastion when Warnock will end up with the best Dem margin in decades.

The rest of the panel was a mess too. Duncan in GA is ridiculous, he refused to give Warnock credit either, and acted like a normal Republican would've won easily. The rest of the panel also was a mess, especially Van Jones, who couldn't just give Warnock/Dems credit and they all kept both sides-ing everything saying that "both sides need to take an evaluation after tonight" as if Democrats and Warnock did not just do smething incredible in the last month. Like, they are allowed to take a victory lap for a day! Jesus christ.

The best was that annoying Republican (not Josh Holmes but something similar) who is always on their panels saying something like "after this midterm, voters clearly want new leaders and new blood" trying to equate Biden and Trump and how both should step aside in 2024, as if Biden did not just deliver an incredible midterm performance! Absolute insanity.

These people act as if all those awful candidates were imposed by Trump and not chosen by the Republican voters.
Or as if Republicans had never fielded wackos and weirdos before 2016.

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Seems like my prediction wasn't that far off. Congrats to the Rev, who ran an incredible campaign.

Are there any crosstabs already? What percentage of the black vote did Warnock win? I think it's fair to say that once again black women in particular delivered this amazing result!

One of the election nerds on twitter said that from a first look Warnock probably won blacks by 93-7 and that there were precincts in DeKalb where he got 98-99%.