IA-Selzer: Trump +7

[Landslide Lyndon]

Woof!

https://twitter.com/RABAresearch/status/1322695513746165760

[Landslide Lyndon]

Is it true that Selzer changed methodology since their last poll? That seems kind of ...important.

https://twitter.com/fawfulfan/status/1322692201118277632

[Landslide Lyndon]

Greenfield and/or Biden need to release their statewide internals TONIGHT to rebut this. If they don’t, the next 48 hours are going to be a disaster.

how often do we get leaked internals from a top Presidential campaign anyways?

that being said, prepare for a PPP poll to squirt out or something

There was a "leaked" internal a month ago that showed Biden 3 points behind. Obviously they still think it's competitive otherwise they wouldn't waste his time sending him there a couple of days before the election.

[Landslide Lyndon]

This has to be the longest poll thread of 2020

Tara Reade says hi.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I just checked and WTF is this.

One GA poll with Biden at +5 or +7... "Outlier, two-page thread"

One Iowa poll with Trump at +7... *17 PAGES!*

People. Get...A...Grip.

The reason this poll is getting so much attention is not because of the poll itself or its direct results.

The reason it is getting a lot of attention is because it is the only poll from a credible pollster we have seen in a long time that suggests Trump has any real path to winning at all. There is a big difference between "basically no chance of winning" and "small but real" chance of winning.

Another thing that some people noted is that Selzer didn't weight for education, and that may play a part in this result. Indeed, that is quite plausible. She may have gotten a less educated sample.

One of Selzer's methodological calling cards has long been that she deliberately tries not to assume too much about the electorate and especially not to limit who she includes in a poll or counts as a "likely voter" too much. That can have its pluses and its minuses.

But one of its pluses is that it is basically means her poll is listening "close to the ground." It lets her pick up on late breaking trends that other polls might miss, at the cost of possibly being over-sensitive.

The one thing that we have all known for a long time that Trump needs to have any realistic chance of winning is big enthusiasm and big election day turnout from WWC voters.

The thing is though that this poll doesn't show a groundswell of WWC support for Trump. He is pretty much at the same spot where he was a month ago. What it shows is that for no apparent reason Biden lost 1/8th of his voters (when the opposite happened everywhere else in the country).

[Landslide Lyndon]

Why is this 19 pages?

Because THIS IS ATLAS!

[Landslide Lyndon]

They badly missed the governor race two years ago. And the Republican caucuses in 2016.
This might be the coup de grace. 

[Landslide Lyndon]

BTW, even if Biden wins I bet you that Selzer will say that this poll was good and it's just that undecideds broke late and massively in one direction, just like they did four years ago.