2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Landslide Lyndon]

What's up with Ron Kind? His opponent raised a lot of money or something else?

[Landslide Lyndon]

This strategy won't work for the simple reason that Republicans did nothing during the last four years to differentiate themselves from Trump. Voters at focus groups aren't just pissed at Trump, they are pissed with everyone having an R next to their names and want to flush them down the toilet. It's no coincidence that in almost every senate race the Republican running gets almost the same vote share as Trump's approval rating.

[Landslide Lyndon]

A Republican internal also showed Shalala losing by 6 in 2018. This district is even more Democratic than FL-27, so let's say I'm skeptical that Gimenez will run 20+ points ahead of Trump.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1287790516399214599

[Landslide Lyndon]

TX-22
Meeting Street Insights/Nehls internal

Nehls 44%
Kulkarni 32%
LeBlanc 5%
Undecided 19%

https://www.congressionalleadershipfund.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/CLF-TX-22-July-Survey-Memo.pdf

44% is a believable number.

You think the Republicans will only get around 44% here?

What's certain is that Kulkarni will get much more than 32%. He got 46 two years ago against an uncontroversial incumbent.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1289216123926450176

[Landslide Lyndon]

MI-10 - Republican primary
WPAi/Club for Growth/Hernandez internal

Hernandez 33% (+6)
McClain 27% (-5)
Slocum 10% (-2)
Undecided 30% (+1)

Favorables:
Hernandez 45/7
McClain 37/8
Slocum 17/4

https://cdn.clubforgrowth.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/CfGPAC_MI_CD10_PollingMemo.pdf

Another failure to nominate a woman in a safely Republican seat.

Though Hernandez is Hispanic. That has to count for something, especially since this seat is over 90% white.

See if the gop nominated the women it would be proof of racism
Catch 22

We are all aware that Republicans are equal opportunity bigots.

[Landslide Lyndon]

My guess is MO-02.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1290799946267070467

[Landslide Lyndon]

Monmouth polled IA's CDs:



https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_IA_080620/

I am very surprised about the first and second districts. I figured IA-01 would be very close and IA-02 would be a more comfortable Dem lead. Though I expected Feenstra to lead big.

Small sample sizes. Even a Republican internal a week ago could only find a tie between Meeks and Hart.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Wasserman changed a few House ratings:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1291718992378449925

Huh! I thought Upton was safe after all the stuff that came out about his opponent.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://www.denverpost.com/2020/08/13/3rd-congressional-district-colorado-boebert-mitsch-bush/

A closely watched congressional contest in western and southern Colorado is tied, according to a poll conducted in early August and released Thursday.

The survey of 400 likely voters in the 3rd Congressional District found Diane Mitsch Bush, a Democrat, with 43% support and Lauren Boebert, a Republican, with 42%. Four percent of voters were undecided and three other candidates split the remaining 11%.

[Landslide Lyndon]

More RMG polls!

IL-13

Londrigan 43%
Davis 41%

https://www.termlimits.com/il13-poll/

MN-1

Hagedorn 41%
Feehan 38%

https://www.termlimits.com/mn1-poll/

Plausible results although the huge number of undecided is not helpful.

[Landslide Lyndon]

CA-50 (J. Wallin Opinion Research - probably an internal)

Campa-Najjar 42.3%
Issa 38.9%

https://static.politico.com/e4/c1/36749f924e3da50c59adff1969fb/ca-50-poll-redacted.jpg

Decimals and too many undecided = trash poll.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/MelissaRyan/status/1297960487922147328

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/ehananoki/status/1298302575272497168

[Landslide Lyndon]

Chamber of Commerce is endorsing a bunch of House Democrats, including several vulnerable freshmen:

https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/1300798594660945920

What's more impressive is that few of them can be called centrists.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1300941685518741507

[Landslide Lyndon]

Why was Schrier's seat moved to Lean? Is that just because she didn't get a majority in the primary? Did she draw a strong opponent? All of the above?

[Landslide Lyndon]

We had the same conversation back in July when the NBC/WSJ poll was D+4.
When something looks like an outlier then it's probably an outlier.

[Landslide Lyndon]

8 competitive districts (4, 10, 21, 22, 25, 39, 48, 50) (n=141):

Republican 54% (+10)
Democrat 42% (-10)

LMAO!

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/Meg_Cunn/status/1307539029932597251

[Landslide Lyndon]

I saw that some House debates took place yesterday. Did anyone watch any of them?

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/TheNJGlobe/status/1311467806811193346

[Landslide Lyndon]

!!!!!!!!

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1311772882142461957

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1312064833739661313