2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Landslide Lyndon]

Steve Watkins had a very poor fundraising quarter.

His likely Dem opponent outraised him, and his primary challenger has more COH.

Why is LaTurner's fundraising so pathetic? The guy was supposed to be a senate contender.

[Landslide Lyndon]

LOL, great news for Christy Smith.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1252417321685053440

[Landslide Lyndon]

Steve Watkins had a very poor fundraising quarter.

His likely Dem opponent outraised him, and his primary challenger has more COH.

Why is LaTurner's fundraising so pathetic? The guy was supposed to be a senate contender.

He was recruited into this race essentially to help stop Kobach in the Senate race, and to have a viable alternative in case Watkins implodes further as well. Possible the party is abandoning him now that they've gotten what they needed from him.

That's a really scummy thing to do and will destroy their credibility. Then again looking how Virginia Republicans managed to become irrelevant in less than a decade...

[Landslide Lyndon]

If you want a good laugh, McLOLghlin has the generic ballot at D+1.

https://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/April-National-Monthly-RELEASE-1.pdf

[Landslide Lyndon]

I think the PA-01 change may be a bit much. This is a presidential year, so even if the nominee is weak, it's still possible they're taken over the finish line by Biden.

Fitzpatrick is someone who has proven ability to run ahead of the ticket. In 2018, the district was Casey +15 and Wolf +19, and he still managed to win, even with a weak opponent. He has one of, if not the, most moderate voting records of any House Republican, and his very popular late brother was his immediate predecessor.

Chet Edwards and Mike Coffman say hi.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Because the dscc is run by morons that's why! They should spend a cent on IA and go all in on GA, GA-S and TX. What, do they want to have a useless 51-52 seat majority that cant pass any legislation?

Republicans are also spending big in Iowa so there must be something both parties see there.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Apparently, Riggleman in VA-05 is expected to lose the nomination to Bob Good.

https://twitter.com/vapoliticalnews/status/1258150366060953600?s=21

This probably moves the seat from Likely R to Lean R.

And all because he officiated a same sex wedding. This is why I don't understand how some gay people can be Republicans.

No, because he's also batsh**t crazy and writes books about Bigfoot.

The Bigfoot thing was widely known back in 2018 but Republicans had no problem. He started having problems only after the marriage he officiated.   

[Landslide Lyndon]

Is he Allen West's long lost brother?

[Landslide Lyndon]

I suppose you can say this is the first triage of the cycle?

https://twitter.com/kateirby/status/1263500785964417025?s=20

Oh boy, wait till these folks at NRCC learn about the things their presidential candidate has said.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Edmondson won by double digits Horn's district in the gubernatorial election, so a slight Biden win isn't all that surprising.

[Landslide Lyndon]

If you need a good laugh, McLOLghlin just released a poll that found generic ballot D+1.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1275174544303685640

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/707753/democratic-poll-finds-narrow-lead-for-perry

PA-10
GBAO Strategies/DePasquale internal
May 28-31, 2020
600 likely voters
MoE: 4%

Perry 50%
De Pasquale 47%

Underwhelming numbers for one of Democrats' most prized recruits.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://www.postbulletin.com/news/government-and-politics/6550329-A-tale-of-two-polls

MN-01 poll
Harper Polling (R)/Hagedorn internal
March 10-12, 2020 (no idea why it's been released now...not been anything better since for Hagedorn? I'd had this district down as safe R)
406 likely voters
MoE: 4.86%

Hagedorn 49%
Feehan 33%
Undecided 18%

Two points.

1) The poll is three months old.
2) Harper found Hagerdon beating Feehan by 14 in 2018. He won by less than a point.   

[Landslide Lyndon]

Kendra Horn is making an ad buy in OK-05, starting tomorrow (after the primary):

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1277985545185112069

I'd bet good money that Biden carries Horn's district and at the end she wins by 3-4%.

[Landslide Lyndon]

THIS!

https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1280961056261767168

[Landslide Lyndon]

Hahahahaha!!!!

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1281303765987897344

[Landslide Lyndon]

NE-02

GQR/Eastman internal
June 30-July 5
502 LV
MoE: 4.4%

Eastman 50%
Bacon 49%
Undecided 1%

Eastman raised 715k. This time money won't be a problem.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000173-56e2-d535-ab7f-76ebc7780000
PA-01
Public Opinion Strategies/Fitzpatrick internal
July 11-14
400 likely voters
MoE: 4.9%

Fitzpatrick 53%
Finello 39%

Yeah, and Will Hurd was ahead by 15 in his district.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Dem internal of KY-06 has Josh Hicks beating Andy Barr 50-48.

https://medium.com/@caroline_24867/inching-ahead-how-democratic-investment-could-put-josh-hicks-across-the-line-d901299eea07

[Landslide Lyndon]

Not sure if this is the appropriate thread but help needed here!

I’m in the fortunate position where I have some extra cash each month that I’d like to donate to Democratic candidates. Can anyone point me to challengers/incumbents who would most benefit from some more donations? Whether it’s their expensive media market or that their challenger is also raising good money.

I have donated to Tipirneni in AZ06 since I’ll be moving to her district before the election. I know folks like Mark Kelly and Elissa Slotkin don’t need my $100!

Texas challengers will need as much money as they can get.

[Landslide Lyndon]

That's ...bizarre.

https://twitter.com/KCMikeMahoney/status/1285300600591323136

[Landslide Lyndon]

I just saw that Harley Rouda (CA-48) challenged Michelle Steel to 8 debates, and she hasn’t responded. I wonder if he benefited more than most CA Dems from the quality of the incumbent he was challenging and this seat snaps back.

Other statewide California Democrats won CA-48 in 2018 aside from Newsom, so I doubt it.

The only statewide Democrat who won this district in a D vs. R race was Yee, and even she barely.
I expect Biden to carry it comfortably but it's obvious that Republicans have still considerable downballot strength here.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Morning Consult
July 17-19
1991 RV
MoE: 2%

Democratic 47%
Republican 37%
Undecided 16%

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2020/07/22072029/200766_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v2.pdf

So much for all those chicken littles who were worried that people will vote Republican downballot to put a check on president Biden.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Morning Consult
July 17-19
1991 RV
MoE: 2%

Democratic 47%
Republican 37%
Undecided 16%

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2020/07/22072029/200766_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v2.pdf

So much for all those chicken littles who were worried that people will vote Republican downballot to put a check on president Biden.

FINALLY! I was wondering why MC stopped doing their GCB like 3 months ago

Trends?

Their last poll in May was D+5.