Greek parliamentary election, 7 July 2019

[Landslide Lyndon]

Our long national nightmare is over.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I thought the EU election results are mostly inline with polling over the last few months.  So these results are not a surprise.  I assume Tsipras is calling elections early since these results confirms those polls that put ND well ahead ?

He wanted to do the election in October but after such a crushing defeat he had no choice. He would be worse than a lame duck.

I think Greek Solution is a great name for a party (just wondering why voters don't give a massive support to someone offering a solution), but I want the Panhellenic Socialist Movement back again.

Greek Solution is a far-right party, founded and led by a pro-Putin, anti-EU, crackpot who is famous for selling "authentic handwritten letters by Jesus" and miracle ointments that cure every disease. It's performance is a total surprise and an embarrassment for our country and our political system.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I have a map of the January 2015 election

SYRIZA has now been obliterated from the countryside.
ND carried two prefectures of Crete (a progressive stronghold) which hadn't happened for at least 40 years.
In total, SYRIZA only carried 6 out of 60 electoral districts.

[Landslide Lyndon]

1) These are the northern suburbs of Athens. Very affluent and very right-wing.

2) Piraeus proper isn't left wing at all. But its suburbs (where I live) are almost exclusively working-class. Traditionally they were a communist stronghold.

[Landslide Lyndon]

1) These are the northern suburbs of Athens. Very affluent and very right-wing.

2) Piraeus proper isn't left wing at all. But its suburbs (where I live) are almost exclusively working-class. Traditionally they were a communist stronghold.

And Thessaloniki? Why is more firmly left wing than Athens? Is it more working class?

Locally they are very right-wing. Nationally, they are more swingy.
SYRIZA fared poorly in Macedonia due to the Prespes agreement.

[Landslide Lyndon]

just a note though, it's actually being held on July 7th, the original June 30th date was only speculation

It wasn't speculation, it was actually announced by the Press secretary.
But they changed it one day later, supposedly because school exams for university admission won't be over by then.
In reality Tsipras delayed the election to have the chance to appoint the leadership of our supreme court whose current term expires on June 30.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Two questions:

One, Syriza spent a lot of the last few years clashing with the Greek Orthodox church on various issues. How close is ND and its electoral base to the church?

Two, is it possible for Tsipras to cobble together a leftist coalition with Kinema and the Communists even if ND is the top party, or does the electoral system pretty much ensure that whomever gets 35 percent of the vote is going to get a majority? Are the Commies even politically viable for a coalition?

ND is very close to the church. As a matter of fact too close for what is ostensibly a western secular party.
SYRIZA passed some legislation which was opposed by the church but they never seriously challenged her. When the education minister tried to take the teaching of Bible out of school curriculum, the Archbishop of Athens demanded publicly his dismissal and Tsipras promptly acquiesced.

On sixth of the chamber - 50 seats out of 300, are awarded to to plurality leader. So, whoever comes in first will always be forming the government.

   

Not only that, there is no chance in hell for KKE to support any kind of coalition government. This is a hard stalinist party which believes that everyone else is a puppet of big business, EU, and NATO.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Are ND voters generally quite religious?

More than your average voter, but still it's a generational thing. Younger voters aren't all that religious.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Did Boutaris endorse anybody in Thessaloniki? I wonder how popular he was at the end, given that Thessaloniki is the Macedonian naming dispute ground zero.

Boutaris is a sui generis personality with friends (and enemies) all across the political spectrum.
He was a good mayor and is still pretty popular.
He didn't endorse anyone, he never does. He prefers to stay above the fray.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Any updates?

Nothing notable. Polls show ND winning by more or less the same margin as last month's elections, which will probably give them a rather comfortable parliamentary majority.
Campaigning has been very low-key for two reasons.

1) We just had en election and everyone seems to have accepted that ND will win by a wide margin.

2) Summer is here and people are more preoccupied with their vacations. 

[Landslide Lyndon]

Are there any signals from ND and other parties about possible coalitions if no party wins a majority? Which is more likely - ND-KA or ND-EL?

In the extremely unlikely scenario that ND doesn't get an absolute majority, I think that there will be no coalition government. Both SYRIZA and KINAL have absolutely no incentive to cooperate with a center-right party like ND, it would be electoral suicide to do it and PASOK experienced it first hand during the 2012-15 Samaras government.

I think it's more likely that a couple of MPs from the populist far-right Greek Solution will defect and vote for a ND government (if Greek Solution fails to clear the 3% threshold then there is zero chance that ND doesn't get a majority).

[Landslide Lyndon]

And if Varoufakis gets over threshold, can he overtake Syriza as main left-wing party or a PASOK(KINAL) comeback is more likely?

No. The guy is a charlatan and a narcissist. He makes Trump look like a humble statesman.
Whenever some poor journalist dares to question the policies and negotiating strategy he followed during his stint as Minister of Finance he visibly loses his cool and starts insulting the questioner.
He commands the loyalty of enough lefties to stay somewhat relevant but the vast majority of people have moved on.

PASOK has a good chance to become the dominant center-left party again after SYRIZA's crushing defeat. The party has deep roots in Greek society. It still controls many trade unions and local offices all over the country (way more than SYRIZA ever did).
I'm personally sure that without charismatic Tsipras at the helm and without the levers of power at its disposal, SYRIZA will disintegrate and become a fringe leftie party again.

[Landslide Lyndon]

The guy is a charlatan and a narcissist. He makes Trump look like a humble statesman.

I would contend that you calling him a charlatan reveals more about yourself than about him.

Yes, it reveals that I live in the real world and not a fantasyland like you and the rest of his groupies.

Unlike Trump, he can talk at length about the economics of the EU, inflation, market imbalances, game theory.

As a matter of fact, that's the only thing he is capable of. When he became Minister and had the chance to actually do something he failed miserably.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Which parties are supportive of/opposed to the Prespa agreement?

Only SYRIZA and Varoufakis.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Which parties are supportive of/opposed to the Prespa agreement?

Only SYRIZA and Varoufakis.

Why does PAS... Kinal oppose it?

Because they think it's a bad deal.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Instead of North Macedonia why not Slavic Macedonia.  That makes it clear the people and language have nothing to do with the ancient Macedonians

Because ethnic Albanians are one third of the population and would never accept that name.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Will the heat wave reduce turnout and as a result ND underperform?

No. The weather might negatively affect participation but I think it will hurt more SYRIZA whose supporters have mostly accepted defeat and might think that voting is a waste of time.

[Landslide Lyndon]

The good is that Golden Dawn's days as a parliamentary party are over.

The bad is that SYRIZA still got more than 30% after four years of disastrous governance.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Turnout is actually around 57%, which is pretty damn good considering the circumstances.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I think we all know that a ND government would have been little different than SYRIZA in the end. At the very least, SYRIZA treated refugees with some respect for a while and achieved a historic accord with Macedonia (that's probably toilet paper now?).
 

The Prespes agreement is between the states of Greece and North Macedonia. A new government can't just cancel it.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Turnout is actually around 57%, which is pretty damn good considering the circumstances.

Yes, it’s going up slightly.

But what about Athos ?

It is still grey on the map.

Is the area exempt from voting ?

Athos is an autonomous area supervised by the greek state. There are people of all nationalities that live there, so most of them can't vote.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I'm not particularly optimistic about the new government.
But I'm pretty damn sure that it can't be any worse that what we got the last four years.

[Landslide Lyndon]

A bit late but here is an excellent thread on why Tsipras is so despised and lost big this year's elections.

https://twitter.com/nchrysoloras/status/1147518758321348609

https://twitter.com/nchrysoloras/status/1147518764684103680

https://twitter.com/nchrysoloras/status/1147518768039546880

https://twitter.com/nchrysoloras/status/1147518773668265984

https://twitter.com/nchrysoloras/status/1147518781901721602

https://twitter.com/nchrysoloras/status/1147518784833544192

https://twitter.com/nchrysoloras/status/1147518787253616640