This is going to be close - but they will both end up with the same amount of delegates. In 2008, Clinton won the state but Obama gained more delegates.
According to the 2008 entrance poll, the electorate was 80% DEM; 15% IND and 4% REP.
The racial breakdown was 65% white, 15% AA and 15% Hispanic, 5% Asian/Other. I think this is pretty reasonable to assume in 2016 - roughly 2/3 white and 1/3 non-white.
From the last poll from Overtime, Clinton was running 70/30 with AA and 60/40 with Hispanics. That seems reasonable as of now - I think this really depends on whether Sanders makes inroads. I would expect Clinton to hit him on his vote against comp immigration reform and highlight her endorsements from Dreamers. But I think this state can go either way - the caucus procedure is just too funky to predict.
Jon Ralston predicts that more than 40% of caucusgoers will be minorities this time, which makes his assertion that the Clinton campaign is in panic mode somewhat mystifying. If indeed there is such a surge in Hispanics and blacks then she will have a relatively easy win.
Poll
