Greece parliamentary election - September 20, 2015

[Landslide Lyndon]

A bunch of polls came out.  All of them had Syriza with a 1%-3% lead over ND and ANEL not making it past 3% threshold (although ANEL tend to under-poll.)    None of them have any chance of Sryiza-ANEL getting a majority even if ANEL makes it past 3%.  Since Tsipras ruled out working with ND, PASOK and Potami post-election and if Syriza is the largest party, then the only way out is another election of Tsipras moves aside for a grand coalition to be led by someone else from Syriza.

Or - more likely - Tsipras eating his own words.

He left himself a bit wiggle room. He said that there won't be a coalition government "with him as prime minister". So he left open the possibility of one with another person as PM.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Maybe they can bring back another "technocrat"? I wonder what Lucas Papademos is doing nowadays...

No, technocrat is a dirty word for the Greek Left. They'd rather see a fascist become PM than someone like Papadimos.

[Landslide Lyndon]

PASOK and DIMAR will run together as the Democratic Coalition.

What a joke! DIMAR took less than 0,5% in January and a significant part of them (among whom former president Fotis Kouvelis) disagreed with this move and will probably run with SYRIZA.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Fotis Kouvelis has now endorsed Syriza.

GAME CHANGER!!!

[Landslide Lyndon]

SYRIZA will lose. Even his MPs seem resigned to that reality and are going through the motions of defending the previous government's record.
They have nothing to sell anymore and every day we see reports about massive defections to LAE.

[Landslide Lyndon]

SYRIZA will lose. Even his MPs seem resigned to that reality and are going through the motions of defending the previous government's record.
They have nothing to sell anymore and every day we see reports about massive defections to LAE.

As much as I despise Sryiza and Tsipras this seems to be bad news.  If a ND government comes into power we will have a re-run of 2013-2014 where ND will try to carry out reforms but Sryiza will snipe from the opposition.  It is better to make Syriza own the deal they signed and carry it out.

Only this time SYRIZA will have no credibility criticizing the implementation of a program they negotiated and voted for.
Besides that, they have already clarified that they will support, more or less, the new program even if they lose the election.

Switch the bonus and you get a centre-right majority of ND, Potami and Union of Centrists.

Don't get fooled. Union of Centrists is a joke party headed by a man with clear mental issues that makes Beppe Grillo look like a real statesman.
No serious party will ever even think to hold any kind of talks and legitimize them.

[Landslide Lyndon]

LAOS has announced they are not running either this time. So one less micro-partyo on the ballot.

SYRIZA's chief spokesperson now says they're willing to work with PASOK and Potami. New tunes.

Tsipras's refusal to cooperate with anyone but ANEL proves to be catastrophic.
Voters are tired of the back-to-back elections and yearn for some stability. So they prefer to vote ND, even if they disagree politically, just because they have declared that they are willing to form a coalition government with anyone of the pro-EU parties.

[Landslide Lyndon]

LAOS has announced they are not running either this time. So one less micro-partyo on the ballot.

This probably benefits ANEL?

Probably a tiny bit, but not much - and ANEL is likely tainted by being allied with Syriza. LAOS is practically irrelevant by now anyway.

Last time ND campaigned to the right on immigration and law & order and got a lot of former LAOS supporters. There is a bloc of floating right wingers that both ND and ANEL could theoretically get, but not sure how much Syriza hurts ANEL among right wingers outside of their core audience. px might know, but it is a "niche-market".

ANEL is hurt not so much because of its collaboration with SYRIZA per se. They are hurt because despite all their anti-austerity hysteria (Kammenos went so far to ask his supporters to lynch a PASOK MP who voted for the first package in 2010), eventually they too voted for the new program.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Most LAOS voters were fascists that have gone to Golden Dawn. The rest had mostly gone to ND (if they were pro-bailout) or ANEL (if they were anti-bailout conspiracy theorists).
If there are any floating right-wingers they will probably go to ND now that there seems to be a good chance to win the election.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Don't get fooled. Union of Centrists is a joke party headed by a man with clear mental issues that makes Beppe Grillo look like a real statesman.
No serious party will ever even think to hold any kind of talks and legitimize them.

Why is EK getting such a surge in support in the polls this election?  It is about voting for a non-mainstream non-establishment but centrist/pro-Euro/liberal party?

It's simply a protest vote against the mainstream parties. I doubt that most people know what the party stands for or who are its candidates, besides president Vasilis Leventis.
Think about voters in the US, disgusted at both parties, that decide to vote en masse for Vermin Supreme.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Don't get fooled. Union of Centrists is a joke party headed by a man with clear mental issues that makes Beppe Grillo look like a real statesman.
No serious party will ever even think to hold any kind of talks and legitimize them.

Why is EK getting such a surge in support in the polls this election?  It is about voting for a non-mainstream non-establishment but centrist/pro-Euro/liberal party?

Supported by some disgruntled ND barons.

wot?

[Landslide Lyndon]

ND has the momentum.
SYRIZA was caught flat-footed not only by the voters desire for coalition governments but by the popularity of ND's new leader, Meimarakis. They honestly believed that Tsipras's personal charisma and youth would lead them (again) to an easy victory over his veteran (and much less charismatic) opponent.

[Landslide Lyndon]

How much will (illegal) immigration be considered when voting, considering most Greeks appear to be resigned to their fate.

Obviously the flood of immigrants hasn't helped SYRIZA at all, especially considering that the minister responsible for immigration policy was one the most inept and widely ridiculed members of Tsipras's cabinet.

[Landslide Lyndon]

It seems all the last minute polls show a very small SYRIZA lead over ND so most likely SYRIZA will most likely come out ahead.  Of course the main unknown would be the turnout rate of SYRIZA voters.

It also seems a lot of polls are "doctored", there are far too many polls showing a tie for this to be statistically credible.

Yeah, the last polls seem like a blatant case of herding to me. It's hard to believe that in two days there were 4-5% swings.
But yes, the conventional wisdom is that SYRIZA has a small lead and is a favorite to win if its disaffected voters come home.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Looks like it will be SYRIZA-ANEL again.

Tsipras should seriously consider swapping them with Potami. The advantages of not being bound by Potami are gone now that they're bound by the new agreement anyway.

There's absolutely no way SYRIZA will work with Potami for two reasons.  Potami has attacked SYRIZA for how they have handled the refugee crisis by taking a very right-wing position on the issue.
The SYRIZA government also stopped the gold mining project in Skouries which had led to enormous environmental devastation.  The company that is running the project is partially owned by the Bobolas family, the oligarchs who are major stakeholders of Mega Channel (the Greek Fox News) where Theodorakis worked.  Potami after the Tsipras government resigned tried to make the Thanou-government re-open the gold mines, which has caused more tension between the two parties.  
The Ecologist Greens who are SYRIZA allies have vetoed having Potami in any government coalition.

That's a load of bull. Skouries are owned 95% by a Canadian company. Bobolas had the rest of 5% until a couple of years ago but he has since sold his stake. He is just a convenient boogeyman for leftists, much like Soros is for conservatives in the US.
And while Mega isn't a exactly a bastion of objectivity and cool-headed analysis, they certainly are not the Greek equivalent to Fox News.

Also, the Potami never tried to persuade the interim government to reopen the mines, I don't know where you got that from. They, and every other party of the opposition including communists, just criticized SYRIZA for shutting down the mine citing environmental concerns despite the fact that our supreme court green-lighted the project. 

[Landslide Lyndon]

Excuse me if I don't consider you the most objective person when it comes to SYRIZA.  I would suggest you visit this site to learn more about the environmental devastation in Skouries:
http://antigoldgr.org/en/

Or maybe you can watch this documentary: http://webtv.ert.gr/ert3/16sep2015-antidrastirio/

Do you think this is right?
 

I would assume that the people who live in Skouries and are protesting against the project know more about the issue than you.

FYI, ND carried the city adjacent to the mine by 10 points. And I think that the voters there are much more familiar with the situation than you, me or a bunch of professional lefties from all over Europe who came here to protest.

And BTW, I'll stop accusing SYRIZA of hypocrisy when they decide to close down all our carbon-fueled electricity plants which pollute and destroy the environment for years now all over Greece.