Is it safe to assume that most of the seats that Democrats gain will be those outside the South?
Yes. Outside of maybe Arkansas, I doubt the Democrats will see a single gain in the South (not counting Florida as part of the South).
How about Virginia?
They could also gain seats in Alabama and South Carolina if the DOJ insists for a second VRA seat, but that's a big if.
At the beginning of the year I'd say Democrats would gain around 15 seats. But with Republican's popularity sinking fast and the Ryan budget, I could see them gaining 20-25 and retaking narrowly the House.
