Early Voting thread.

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

Florida numbers as of this morning

VBM D+52k
IP R+23K

Total D+29k

Note that not all counties are open for early voting until Thursday

Will be interesting to see if Republicans continue to have a smaller edge than in 2020 in in-person. Would then confirm that there's a decent chunk of GOPers who are back to VBM.

Hm, why would you assume that?

Not assuming, just saying it's a possiiblity. Florida historically had been very good for GOP with VBM up until Trump's anti-VBM nonsense in 2020. So it wouldn't be surprising imo if the GOP went back to more VBM without him being so prominent

It's very low possibility based on what exactly? Nothing if you ask me. The writing is well on the wall for Dems in Florida. Only 30k vote advantage and at this pace by the end of the week Reps will outnumber ballots cast in VBM + IP. I don't see a reason why would Reps go to the VBM more this year, it's much more probable that they will vote instead on election day.

I tend to agree with this take. Comparing the VBM percentage of each party's final vote total, the 2020 general and 2022 primaries look extremely similar... like within a couple of percent. I would have to find my notes but I think when I did the math, I came to 35% VBM for Rs in 2020 vs 37% in the 2022 primaries and 55% for Ds in 2020 vs 54% in the primary. I have my doubts voting patterns change that much from the primaries to now but I guess time will tell.

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

https://twitter.com/SimonWDC/status/1584953574504960000

Basically red states and swing states are the bright spot for Dems currently. Blue states plus IA/NV/NC/AZ are the only places looking good for the GOP. I do think I recall that North Carolina saw a similar pattern at the beginning of their early vote where Dems were outpacing 2020 for a while, but the GOP has been steadily gaining (not just gaining percentage, which is to be expected, but gaining relative to the same time in 2020).

This should tell a lot in the next couple of weeks. If these numbers hold up and Dems are straight up winning the early vote in Texas or Ohio, a wave is probably out of the question. If those numbers become more R favorable as time goes on the same way NC has, it could be a sign that special elections/first few days of early voting metrics are being skewed by dem super voter intensity.

I don't know why people trust Target Smart in states without party registration like TX. Their modeled party "data" is often horribly inaccurate.