More bizarre and misinformed points from jaichind:
1. The federal government faces borrowing costs that are unprecedented....over the past four years. In 2018, nominal interest rates on 10-year treasuries were similar. Of course, the real interest rate of a 10 year treasury note is negative at the moment. It's unclear how jaichind can motivate his claims about interest rates today having an impact on the level of interest payments going forward in light of this. If markets are tanking in response to rate hikes that are projected to bring the federal funds rate to their maximum in 2018, give or take a few 0.5 percentage points, this something about the neutral rate of interest as well.
2. Bluntly, his last paragraph is masturbatory. However much he might wish for there to be a fiscal reckoning, however much he might wish for Russia to defeat Ukraine, none of this is necessary. Zero justification is provided for his fantastical claims.
Here's my prediction: I think it's far more likely that the US experiences a deflationary episode by late 2023 than for the US to suffer another year where the headline rate of inflation exceeds 4 percent. In fact, my baseline prediction is that in 2023, the headline rate of inflation will be lower than 2 percent. The core rate of inflation will likely exceed 2 percent or something like this. To be clear, the transmission lag of monetary policy is very long - usual estimates are that it takes at least 4 quarters for the impact of rate hikes to be fully-felt. The best guess is that it takes ~8-9 quarters.
We're still in a regime of secular stagnation, where governments can basically run ponzi schemes. You may return to usual business in another year. Prices will be moderate, growth will be sluggish and economics will be boring again soon.
What makes you think inflation will be under control by then? I can see interest rate hikes, even small ones, cooling off the asset/equity bubbles we've been seeing that were inflated largely by low-interest debt... but what I don't see is how commodities naturally resolve themselves. There too much at play outside of the fed's control. Worker productivity has been in decline for a few quarters now (maybe people leaving the workforce and fueling labor shortages?), widespread drought is killing crop yields, sanctions from the Ukraine war situation are driving up global oil prices, especially with diesel where North American sour crude isn't as amenable to refining low sulfur diesel, there's bird flu infecting chickens and the higher interest will likely also significantly slow private sector investment into increased output across the board. Not to mention, prices have gone up most among necessities like oil and food... understandably the last things most people cut from their budget as they are necessary for the activities such as being alive and commuting to work. To me this feels like a coming period of prolonged stagflation.
