Is Dallas County lost for the GOP?

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

I’m starting to thing Texas is most analogous to Arkansas in that a few high profile individuals are keeping the opposition dammed up so they don’t dominate the state. In a few cycles once they retire or there’s a good enormous ty year for democrats to off them there’s no turning back

It's way too early to determine that. TX hasn't even managed to vote D at the presidential level yet. Arkansas had solid down-ballot D control long after Bush made it a lock for Rs in presidential races. Also unlike Arkansas, TX does have a significant countervailing trend among Latinos. Particularly in south TX but you can also see it on trend maps in the urban counties. It's also way too early to tell how much of this is permanent vs how much was unique to covid and Trump's personality. If those narrow margins hold up in an R wave year, you might be right. But if the statewide races are all double digits in 2022, I think blue Texas is more of a mirage. If Dems are going to have a shot though, they need to duplicate their turbocharged turnout from 2018-2020. Because under historical Texas turnout scenarios, Ds will lose badly. You see this in basically every TX special election. The highest propensity voters there still seem to be very Republican.

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

Is this where the discussion of Democratic self-segregation into heavily Democratic communities, the "Big Sort" discussion, white flight, etc. will all be rehashed? If so, can we just recognize those factors and move back to the previous discussion?

A Dallas County that's 55-60% Democratic is, as discussed above, underwhelming compared to most of the countries other "big city" counties, and, as recognized above, that's only partially because of outlying areas that are within the county. The same fact is true for rather different reasons regarding Harris County at a dead-even split, compounded by Houston's status as the capital of the global oil industry as a natural right wing tendency. A competitive Texas would at least start off with a Dallas that votes like Travis does now and a Bexar and Harris that vote like Dallas does now, along with cuts in the GOP majorities in the suburban areas, a 50/50 Tarrant, and high turnout in the Rio Grande Valley. None of those factors are there and many look near-impossible to build. I find a lot of the "Texas will be a swing state in the next 10 years" chat to be eye-rolling.

Hm, how does this hold up? I said that a competitive TX would have a "Dallas that votes like Travis does now," so... Obama 2012 won Travis by 24, Biden 2020 won it by 32, so condition more than met. I said a Bexar and Harris that vote like Dallas does now, so...Dallas in 2012 was Obama +15, in 2020 Harris was Biden +13 and Bexar Biden +18. I said substantial cuts in the suburban areas...check, more than I could've imagined. I said a 50/50 Tarrant...check. (49/49) I said high turnout in the Rio Grande Valley...check.

So did all of this produce a competitive Texas? Well, it produced a Texas that was Trump +5.6 rather than Romney +15.8 back in 2012. Past me would be shocked by this, back then I'd have thought all of that would lead to near-50/50 TX. Still, good indication that the gap closed a LOT.

My hunch is high rural turnout and RGV turnout actually being to the Dems' detriment are responsible for that 5.6%. I don't think Dems are coming that close again until we have another Republican president, particularly if it's Donald Trump.