Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[rob in cal]

   So, I have this recurring fantasy of an FPO-SPO coalition emerging after the next parliamentary election, a sort of reverse model of Burgenland, in this case FPO would name Chancellor.  The FPO electorate is so heavily working class that I would think they would support such a coalition.  The FPO would in this scenario move closer to SPO on domestic issues perhaps, with the SPO coming much closer to FPO on immigration issues.  This would likely lead to a huge disruption in the SPO of course, with massive party splits possible.  The remaining pro coalition forces could be termed Ficoites, after Slovakia's Robert Fico.
   Wonder how realistic this scenario is.

[rob in cal]

 I think that's smart campaigning by Hofer, showing him looking like a pretty normal person, which for someone perceived to be this extreme far-right candidate by some helps to reassure voters.

[rob in cal]

   Of course if money savings was a big issue, we in the US could save a lot by going to a unicameral legislature (bye bye Senate), or at the very least unicameral legislature for states. Also, longer terms for elected officials would help, and then there's the massive overstaffing at the voting precincts (I think there's the same amount of people working for a very low turnout special election as there are for the generals)

[rob in cal]

   Tender, interesting poll.  I wonder if the recent high profile terror attacks are having an effect, even though they aren't in Austria.  Also interesting is that "Asyl politik" is still right up there as a big factor, even though this year hasn't seen as many, I believe, as last year, coming into western Europe.
   Has Hofer said anything about Hungary under Victor Orban? I would think Orban would be a model for Hofer.

[rob in cal]

   Pretty strong words from Chancellor Kern.  I wonder how SPO Burgenland premier Niessl feels about this.  I guess this means that Kern wouldn't be part of any possible, however unlikely it may be, FPO-SPO federal coalition.

[rob in cal]

  Tender, I still fondly remember my week or so spent in the Salzkammergut in the summer of 89. If in fact Hofer is improving in the polls, I wonder if it isn't in just such regions, as opposed to gains in more urban areas.

[rob in cal]

   Fascinating that the term Oxit is now in use in an actual political poster.  Also interesting is the poster "for our well-loved Austria", sounds more like what Hofer would use.  I'm thinking VDB should have a poster saying, "for a more diverse, more multi-cultural Austria" as he stands for that much more than Hofer does.

[rob in cal]

    Well, if any category of voters would be switchable it makes sense that it would be OVP voters, and that's where Hofers path to victory lies, in getting more of them on board.

[rob in cal]

  Tender, both candidates have called for more direct democracy.  Any ideas on exactly what they mean?  Are they supportive of going all-out Swiss, or just small changes of existing laws?

[rob in cal]

  So on election day what results will we have to look at after the polls close? Exit polls, partial returns?

[rob in cal]

  There are probably several of us on Atlas who wouldn't mind a third Hofer VDB match as its helping us get through a dry spell in European national elections.

[rob in cal]

   Assuming some of those anti-Hofer stickers that Omega saw said "eat the rich" that would be ironic since Hofer would have won the first round of the election had it not been for the vote of the wealthy.  Also ironic is the fact that leftist groups are so strongly against the candidate who is so strongly supported by the blue collar working class. I guess its not the mid 20th century anymore.

[rob in cal]

   Too bad if in fact the election is further postponed because of the glue crisis.  At least we'll have the Hungarian referendum to get excited about on Oct. 2.
 

[rob in cal]

  Tender, in that case, maybe the delay will benefit Hofer, in that some new political development will take place to change the electoral dynamic.

[rob in cal]

   Tender, what are the latest developments with Austria reaching its quota of migrants for the year? I thought it was going to hit the limit around last month.

[rob in cal]

   Tender, when will postal ballots be sent out, and more importantly will they have the right glue this time?

[rob in cal]

  I love how in the photo accompanying the article about Pinkafeld there are mountains in the background, giving the impression that Burgenland is like the Tyrol or something.

[rob in cal]

   Well, I think the polls in for the first round were way off, but that was a multi-candidate field.  For the second round they were pretty close, IIRC, predicting a very close finish which we got.

[rob in cal]

  Tender, when will we get country-wide numbers for total postal ballots requested?

[rob in cal]

   Tender, interesting observations.  I believe a few weeks ago you were thinking that turnout might be weaker among some pro-Hofer voters that you knew, so do you sense that they too will be voting?

[rob in cal]

  Tender if this trend holds throughout Austria of less postal ballots I wonder if its from both glue gate, as well as annulment of the last runoff in which, IIRC, there were questions about proper handling of postal ballots.  So maybe a lot of potential postal voters now are more concerned about the whole postal process.

[rob in cal]

   Some positives for Hofer might be that the biggest declines in postal votes is Vienna, and Carinthia is down the least.
   

[rob in cal]

   Oh, certainly early voting misreadings are quite common by everybody, but I would think anything indicating less electoral activity coming out of Vienna would most likely be good news for Hofer.

[rob in cal]

   Anyone else planning my strategy for following the returns? I'm just going to be on the official results page and constantly refreshing. I don't want to see any exit polls, which just take the drama away.  Also going with the assumption that Hofer needs a margin of somewhere over 200k votes on Sunday to make up for Vdb  expected win with the postal ballots.

[rob in cal]

  So much for early parliamentary elections I suppose.