Johnson pulls off reelection in 1968, setting the stage for a showdown in '72.

[its_gi_brown]

President Lyndon Johnson sat back in his chair and grinned to his loyal Vice President, Hubert Humphrey.
“We did it. We actually did it,” said LBJ with a sense of satisfaction. “With all that proof of Nixon sabotaging the peace agreements, he won’t be in the White House. He’ll be in the big house.”
Humphrey laughed heartily, reached over, and patted Johnson on the back. Humphrey was happy that Johnson had been reelected. He had campaigned heavily for him in this close race, and their work had paid off. It was a job well done. But secretly, Johnson’s re-election was not the thing he was most happy for. Humphrey knew what this meant for him. He was already the presumptive Democratic nominee in 1972, and the fight may have been over for Johnson, but it was only starting for him. He stood up and walked to the door.
“I’m going to call Muriel. And again, congratulations on reelection, you’ve earned it,” he said earnestly.
“Same to you, Hubert,” replied Johnson.


When the last vote was counted, Johnson won 296 electoral votes to Nixon’s 189. George Wallace, the third party candidate, won 53.

Most analysts and pundits agree that Johnson only pulled ahead significantly in the last few days of the race, after he publicly released evidence which proved that Nixon had sabotaged the Vietnam peace talks. His closest victory was Oregon, which he won by 7,752 votes.

[its_gi_brown]

Thanks. I need to post twenty times before I can send links, so I need to post a few quick times before I can continue this

[its_gi_brown]

Good point. I modified the original post with this in mind.

[its_gi_brown]

1968 United States presidential election

Red denotes states won by Johnson, blue denotes those won by Nixon, and green denotes those won by Wallace.

Electoral Vote

Johnson: 296
Nixon:189
Wallace: 53

Popular Vote

Johnson: 32,450,235
Nixon: 31,551,342
Wallace: 9,619,802

Popular Vote (%)

Johnson: 44.37%
Nixon: 43.15%
Wallace: 12.48%

House of Representatives election results

Democratic: 252
Republican: 183

Senate election results

Democratic: 60
Republican: 30

[its_gi_brown]

A few key plans for LBJ's second term
as of January 20, 1969

Vietnam

After it was shown that Richard Nixon sabotaged peace talks with the North Vietnamese, the Johnson Administration renewed its attempts at peace with the North Vietnamese. President Johnson promises that a ceasefire will be in effect and all American troops will be withdrawn by July 4, 1970 or earlier.

The Great Society

President Johnson's administration plans to stay on the same plan regarding the Great Society programs. Johnson has stated that these programs are effective in reducing poverty, but if any of them stop working, he will not hesitate to augment them accordingly.

Civil Rights

As with the Great Society, the Johnson administration is keeping the same course as it has been for the past six years. It will continue to push for equal rights for racial minorities.

Law and Order

The Johnson administration views the rioting and lawbreaking of the past few years as indefensible, and new focus will be given to this issue. More funding will be allocated to police departments, and there will be more investment in low-income areas.




LBJ's approval rating
January 20, 1969

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the current president, Lyndon Johnson, is handling his job as president?

Approve: 69%
Disapprove: 29%

Note the prominent presidential honeymoon immediately after the inauguration. Expect his approval rating to slip over time as it wears off.

[its_gi_brown]

A look at a few potential Republican candidates for 1972
as of March 4, 1969

• Nelson Rockefeller

Office: Governor of New York

Views: Liberal

Pros: He would help the Republican Party compete with Humphrey in the north, and he is well-known and personally liked.

Cons: If both candidates are northern liberals, another Southern third party candidate might spring up, costing the Republicans precious electoral votes they would otherwise win.

Chance of running: 75%

• Ronald Reagan

Office: Governor of California

Views: Conservative

Pros: He is charismatic and funny, well-known, and will give a boost in conservative areas such as the South, and his home region of the West Coast.

Cons: His conservative views will alienate northerners, and will only help Humphrey's lead in those states. Also, he used to be a Democrat.

Chance of running: 80%

• John Anderson

Office: Congressman from Illinois' 16th Congressional District

Views: Moderate, but a wild card

Pros: He is a respected congressman from a crucial state, and he balances the differing wings of the party well. He also has a reputation for being fiercely independent.

Cons: He used to be very conservative. He has since moderated these views heavily, but this leaves him vulnerable to attack for flip-flopping. Also, his staunch opposition to the Vietnam War might dampen conservative enthusiasm for him.

Chance of running: 60%

• Daniel Evans

Office: United States Senator from Washington

Views: Moderate

Pros: He won in a liberal state, is very popular on the West Coast, and gave a warmly received 1968 keynote address at the RNC.

Cons: He may be too moderate for a national-level Republican nominee. He does not deliver a clear advantage outside of Washington

Chance of running: 50&

• John Tower

Office: United States Senator from Texas

Views: Conservative

Pros: Comes from a swing state and is an experienced senator

Cons: He is relatively little-known nationally and his staunch opposition of the Civil Rights Act would hurt his chances in the North

Chance of running: 40%




LBJ's approval rating
March 4, 1969

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the current president, Lyndon Johnson, is handling his job as president?

Approve: 65%
Disapprove: 32%

[its_gi_brown]

The situation of the 1970 midterms
as of June 17, 1969


House of Representatives forecasts from major organizations and pundits

Democratic: 251
Republican: 184

Democratic: 247
Republican: 188

Democratic: 271
Republican: 164

Democratic: 241
Republican: 194

Democratic: 262
Republican: 173

Democratic: 251
Republican: 184

Democratic: 250
Republican: 185

Democratic: 269
Republican: 166


Average:

Democratic: 255
Republican: 180


United States Senate predictions from major organizations and pundits

Democratic: 62
Republican: 38

Democratic: 64
Republican: 38

Democratic: 58
Republican: 42

Democratic: 65
Republican: 35

Democratic: 61
Republican: 39

Democratic: 60
Republican: 30

Democratic: 61
Republican: 39

Democratic: 59
Republican: 41


Average:

Democratic: 61
Republican: 39


Midterm elections consensus:

Although midterm elections generally hurt the party in power, the Democratic Party has made few mistakes in this new term, and the popularity of their handling of the country will likely continue into 1970.




LBJ's approval rating
June 17, 1969

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the current president, Lyndon Johnson, is handling his job as president?

Approve: 62%
Disapprove: 34%

[its_gi_brown]

Johnson Administration starts peace negotiations with the North Vietnamese
August 19, 1969


Last Friday, Lyndon B. Johnson's office released a statement saying that the North Vietnamese government and the South Vietnamese government had agreed, tentatively, to negotiate a peace agreement. It is unclear how long these negotiations will last, but President Johnson appears to be taking seriously his goal of removing all US troops from Vietnam and reaching peace by July 4, 1970. The outcome of this may have drastic political ramifications. A failure to meet this deadline or reach peace at all would hurt congressional Democrats' chances badly in 1970, giving the beleaguered Republicans a badly-needed boost. However, if peace is reached by these deadlines, the Democrats will only pull away with their lead and coast to victory. These are the two possible outcomes, and the pressure is on for LBJ to pull it off again.

In other news, there is already speculation about the Republican field in 1972. California governor Ronald Reagan, New York governor Nelson Rockefeller, and maverick congressman John Anderson are expected to seek their party's nomination. Whoever the Republican nominee is, he will find a daunting task in defeating Vice President Hubert Humphrey in 1972, provided the Democratic Party maintains its popularity.




LBJ's approval rating
August 19, 1969

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the current president, Lyndon Johnson, is handling his job as president?

Approve: 65%
Disapprove: 31%

[its_gi_brown]

The GOP presidential primary field
as of August 29, 1969

Polling of potential field of candidates:

Rockefeller: 20%
Reagan: 19%
Anderson: 15%
Tower: 11%
Evans: 10%
Agnew: 7%
Goldwater: 6%
Others: 12%

Reagan: 22%
Rockefeller: 20%
Anderson: 14%
Evans: 10%
Tower: 10%
Agnew: 5%
Goldwater: 4%
Others: 15%

Rockefeller: 23%
Reagan: 21%
Anderson: 16%
Evans: 11%
Tower: 10%
Agnew: 4%
Goldwater: 4%
Others: 11%

Rockefeller: 22%
Reagan: 19%
Anderson: 15%
Evans: 12%
Tower: 11%
Agnew: 4%
Goldwater: 3%
Nixon: 2%
Others: 12%

Reagan: 22%
Rockefeller: 20%
Anderson: 17%
Evans: 11%
Tower: 11%
Agnew: 3%
Goldwater: 3%
Others: 13%


Average (only major candidates):

Rockefeller: 21%
Reagan: 21%
Anderson: 15%
Evans: 11%
Tower: 11%




LBJ's approval rating
August 29, 1969

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the current president, Lyndon Johnson, is handling his job as president?

Approve: 64%
Disapprove: 32%

[its_gi_brown]

Problems with the Vietnam peace talks
September 28, 1969


An anonymous US State Department official leaked several details about the ongoing Vietnam peace negotiations to several news outlets yesterday. According to these leaks, talks are stalling, and the frustrated Johnson Administration cannot settle on terms to cease fire on. This is a minor blow to them, and if they do not break through, they may fail to reach an agreement by the Fourth of July. The Democrats are all too aware that they risk losing their wide lead over the Republicans for the 1970 midterms.

In the meantime, economic growth has slowed slightly over the past month, made evident by lackluster showings in the stock market. It is unclear if this is just an anomaly, or it is part of a larger trend. This only adds to the frustration of congressional Democrats as they plan for the midterms.




LBJ's approval rating
September 28, 1969

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the current president, Lyndon Johnson, is handling his job as president?

Approve: 56%
Disapprove: 40%

The combination of the stock market stagnating, Vietnam peace talks stalling, and Johnson's approval honeymoon ending have hurt his approval rating, although he remains in the positive for now.

[its_gi_brown]

The situation of the 1970 midterms
as of October 3, 1969


House of Representatives forecasts from major organizations and pundits

Democratic: 230
Republican: 205

Democratic: 245
Republican: 190

Democratic: 245
Republican: 190

Democratic: 232
Republican: 203

Democratic: 237
Republican: 198

Democratic: 241
Republican: 194

Democratic: 234
Republican: 201

Republican: 222
Democratic: 213


Average:

Democratic: 235
Republican: 200


United States Senate predictions from major organizations and pundits

Democratic: 53
Republican: 47

Democratic: 51
Republican: 49

Democratic: 52
Republican: 48

Democratic: 53
Republican: 47

Democratic: 50
Republican: 50

Republican: 52
Democratic: 48

Democratic: 54
Republican: 46

Democratic: 51
Republican: 49


Average:

Democratic: 52
Republican: 48




LBJ's approval rating
October 3, 1969

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the current president, Lyndon Johnson, is handling his job as president?

Approve: 53%
Disapprove: 47%

[its_gi_brown]

Polling for each potential Republican candidate against Hubert Humphrey
October 29, 1969


Hubert Humphrey: 49%
Nelson A. Rockefeller: 49%

Hubert Humphrey: 50%
Ronald W. Reagan: 49%

Hubert Humphrey: 51%
John Anderson: 49%

Hubert Humphrey: 52%
Daniel Evans: 47%

Hubert Humphrey: 53%
John Tower: 46%




LBJ's approval rating
October 29, 1969

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the current president, Lyndon Johnson, is handling his job as president?

Approve: 51%
Disapprove: 48%

[its_gi_brown]

The 1969 gubernatorial elections
November 5, 1969


Another demoralizing blow to the Democrats happened today when they lost both the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections to their Republican opponents. This only confirms the fact that the Republicans are gaining lost ground after their election defeat in 1968. With the midterms looming large in a year, all signs point to this being a close race with an unusually ferocious Republican party. The pressure is on for the Democrats as election day approaches.


New Jersey gubernatorial election:

William Cahill (R): 60%
Robert Meyner (D): 38%


Virginia gubernatorial election:

Linwood Holton (R): 53%
William Battle (D): 45%




LBJ's approval rating
November 5, 1969

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the current president, Lyndon Johnson, is handling his job as president?

Approve: 49%
Disapprove: 49%

[its_gi_brown]

Breakthrough in the Vietnam peace talks!
November 22, 1969


News has just hit that President Johnson and leaders in North and South Vietnam are making new ground in peace talks, and a ceasefire will come within weeks. Although some are dismayed that the ceasefire is not coming sooner, most people are relieved that it's happening at all, after the disastrous State Department leaks almost two months ago. Nobody is more relieved than Democrats in Congress, who have been the beneficiaries of significant swings in polling the past few days. Even Vice President Hubert Humphrey, the presumptive Democratic nominee in 1972, has enjoyed a several-point boost in the polls against all of his potential Republican opponents.

The Democrats are once again the favorites in the rapidly approaching 1970 midterms, but although their lead is significant, it is not the end for Republicans.




LBJ's approval rating
November 22, 1969

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the current president, Lyndon Johnson, is handling his job as president?

Approve: 54%
Disapprove: 44%

[its_gi_brown]

Vietnam ceasefire goes into effect
January 1, 1970


The long-anticipated ceasefire went into effect today, a result of the Johnson Administration's tedious negotiations with the governments of North and South Vietnam. If all goes according to plan, United States troops will be slowly withdrawn on a schedule which starts now and ends on July 4.

Americans from the East Coast to the West are celebrating an end to this unpopular war, and now all eyes are on the Johnson Administration to preform an orderly, responsible withdrawal of American troops.

Congressional Democrats are also celebrating, as they have been the beneficiary of a several-point boost in the polls from the ceasefire.




LBJ's approval rating
January 1, 1970

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the current president, Lyndon Johnson, is handling his job as president?

Approve: 56%
Disapprove: 41%

[its_gi_brown]

Great timeline so far (this is Liam, jsyk)

yeah thanks my dude!

[its_gi_brown]

A (way too early) look at the 1972 electoral map
February 14, 1970

Republican: 194
Democratic: 148
Tossup: 196

Republicans are predicted to have an advantage in blue states, while Democrats are predicted to have an advantage in red states. Grey states are tossups, which could go either way.

There will be scattered map updates in the future, especially when we know the Republican nominee. States such as Michigan, Alaska, and Pennsylvania are marked for one party, but may become tossups in the future because of their relatively slim polling margins. Expect substantial changes to this map by election day once we have a more complete picture of the race.




LBJ's approval rating
February 14, 1970

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the current president, Lyndon Johnson, is handling his job as president?

Approve: 54%
Disapprove: 40%

[its_gi_brown]

A Catastrophe: The Unfolding Situation in Vietnam
March 1, 1970


Chaos has erupted in Vietnam during President Johnson's troop withdrawal today as Vietnamese citizens mobbed the American airport in Hanoi to catch a ride out of Vietnam, which they believe will fall imminently without American support. News footage of desperate Vietnamese citizens clinging to the sides of lumbering American transport jets has been seen on practically every television in America - much to the dismay of President Lyndon Johnson and the Department of Defense, who wanted a neat, orderly withdrawal from the war-torn country. During a press conference today, the following exchange took place:

REPORTER: Mr. President, does a withdrawal of all American troops from Vietnam, who bore the brunt of the fighting, mean that the country would fall to North Vietnam if it was attacked again?

PREISDENT JOHNSON: Absolutely not. The Republic of Vietnam has an army of 400,000 men trained by us to fight there. A withdrawal of our guys from there does not equal the fall of South Vietnam.

Critics of President Johnson cite the unpopularity of the Diem government currently in power  and the corruption and weakness of the South Vietnamese government as reasons the ARVN (Army of the Republic of Vietnam) would not hold out long, or even at all against an advancing North Vietnamese army.

Whatever ends up happening with this evacuation, one thing is certain: The events unfolding right now are hurting President Lyndon B. Johnson and the Democrats badly, and a poll released several hours ago shows their several-point lead is nearly gone, and still falling.




LBJ's approval rating
March 1, 1970

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the current president, Lyndon Johnson, is handling his job as president?

Approve: 51%
Disapprove: 47%

[its_gi_brown]

American Troops Dead as Hectic Withdrawal Goes Awry
March 4, 1970


The situation in Vietnam just got several times worse yesterday as an American helicopter loaded with civilians crashed into the US airport in Hanoi today, killing the crew of eight, the eight civilians being evacuated with them, and twenty-one others inside the airport where it crashed. A halt to all flights out of the airport has been ordered, and hasty repairs are being made to the building where it was hit.

It is unclear what exactly caused the helicopter to crash. One explanation is that the helicopter was overloaded with refugees and crashed because there was too much weight, while others have said that it was mistaken for a combat helicopter and shot down by the Viet Cong.

It has also been reported that the Viet Cong have been gathering in secret and preparing for one final attack to drive Americans out of the country, which has been disputed by both the American and North Vietnamese governments. Notably, the Viet Cong leadership has not released their own statement concerning these rumors.

This only adds to the chaos of the evacuation, hurting the current administration even more as they struggle to control the mass exodus. Midterm polls from after this event have not been released yet, but it is likely that this will only hurt the Democrats more in the upcoming midterm elections in November.




LBJ's approval rating
March 4, 1970

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the current president, Lyndon Johnson, is handling his job as president?

Disapprove: 49%
Approve: 49%

[its_gi_brown]

The situation of the 1970 midterms
as of March 14, 1970


House of Representatives forecasts from major organizations and pundits

Democratic: 222
Republican: 213

Democratic: 219
Republican: 216

Democratic: 229
Republican: 206

Republican: 230
Democratic: 205

Democratic: 218
Republican: 217

Republican: 220
Democratic: 215

Republican: 226
Democratic: 209

Democratic: 231
Republican: 204


Average:

Democratic: 219
Republican: 216


United States Senate predictions from major organizations and pundits

Republican: 53
Democratic: 47

Republican: 52
Democratic: 48

Democratic: 51
Republican: 49

Republican: 52
Democratic: 48

Democratic: 50
Republican: 50

Republican: 53
Democratic: 47

Democratic: 50
Republican: 50

Democratic: 51
Republican: 49


Average:

Republican: 51
Democratic: 49




LBJ's approval rating
March 14, 1970

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the current president, Lyndon Johnson, is handling his job as president?

Disapprove: 49%
Approve: 47%

[its_gi_brown]

Despite Chaos in Vietnam, the Economy is Strong
March 22, 1970


As the hectic Vietnam pullout continues overseas, the economy remains surprisingly strong ever since its recovery in late 1969. Lyndon Johnson, despite currently having a negative approval rating because of the catastrophic pullout from Vietnam, has received generally positive marks from economists and ordinary Americans alike for his handling of the economy. This likely mitigates at least part of the extent of the Vietnam pullout, according to a panel of political pundits on Saturday.




LBJ's approval ratings
March 22, 1970

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the current president, Lyndon Johnson, is handling the economy? Base your answer purely off of the economy of the past year and not the recent events in Vietnam.

Approve: 59%
Disapprove: 36%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the current president, Lyndon Johnson, is handling his job as president in general?

Disapprove: 49%
Approve: 46%

[its_gi_brown]

Skirmishes with Viet Cong rattle US withdrawal
April 5, 1970


Viet Cong forces engaged with American rear guard forces near the 17th parallel today, confirming the worst of the Department of Defense's fears: There will be an attack on South Vietnam after we withdraw, and the Viet Cong will act with possible PAVN (People's Army of North Vietnam) support. This revelation has seriously jeopardized Lyndon Johnson's pullout plan, with the deadline looming in three months.

Now, Lyndon Johnson has a dilemma on his hands: Will he pull out and leave South Vietnam to fend for itself, where it has a serious chance of falling, or will he stay and fight, almost certainly staying past his July 4th pullout deadline?

President Johnson's office has yet to publish a statement regarding their plan of action after these events. Either response will hurt him, and by extension the Democratic Party, with the midterms coming rapidly.




LBJ's approval ratings
April 5, 1970

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the current president, Lyndon Johnson, is handling his job as president?

Disapprove: 50%
Approve: 45%

[its_gi_brown]

Johnson Administration makes decision regarding a plan in Vietnam
April 7, 1970


President Lyndon Johnson had a press conference today, in which he clearly stated his plan for Vietnam. This comes after skirmishes with Viet Cong guerillas along the 17th parallel rocked his plan, and only further harmed his image to the American public. His decision was surprisingly swift regarding the events, and we have yet to know how it will effect the upcoming elections in contrast to the other option.


REPORTER: Mr. President, what exactly is your plan for Vietnam with the fighting on the parallel? Will you stay in Vietnam or go?

JOHNSON: I've been expecting this question now, and you all deserve an answer. We will still be out by the fourth. I made a promise to the American people and I intend to keep it. I know people will be upset with me, but I tell it like it is, and what it is is a no-win war if our peace agreement breaks down within months. I can't justify getting American boys killed in a country with its own army and weapons.




LBJ's approval ratings
April 7, 1970

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the current president, Lyndon Johnson, is handling his job as president?

Disapprove: 49%
Approve: 45%

[its_gi_brown]

United States withdrawal from Vietnam proceeds
April 11, 1970


Approximately 70% of US troops have now left Vietnam, according to last week's State Department progress report. South Vietnam has now engaged in open combat with Viet Cong guerillas, and they seem to be dealing with them effectively, but it is now likely that North Vietnam, with its professional army, will intervene and fight the South in open warfare. However, South Vietnam's current success in dealing with the Viet Cong have caused the panic in the nation to recede enough to resume the orderly evacuation of American troops from the country.

Many military analysts here in the USA have stated their belief that the confidence people have in South Vietnam is misplaced and that it will fall within a year of American withdrawal, but the Johnson Administration is nonetheless enjoying a surge of popularity from the now-smooth withdrawal.




LBJ's approval ratings
April 11, 1970

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the current president, Lyndon Johnson, is handling his job as president?

Disapprove: 48%
Approve: 47%

[its_gi_brown]

It's looking good for LBJ's Vietnam withdrawal gamble, for now
June 15, 1970


90% of American troops are now out of Vietnam, and South Vietnam is in full-on combat with the Viet Cong guerillas. The ARVN seems to be barely holding off waves of Viet Cong attacks. Nonetheless, the fact that the beleaguered South Vietnamese are above water at all is good for President Johnson and his Democratic allies in Washington. This is demonstrable by the fact that Johnson's approval rating is positive for the first time since March, a significant achievement for the Johnson Administration. Polling also has the Democratic Party winning the House and the Senate, but by slim margins. If the Democratic Party holds this until election day, they will win narrowly, but all of their hopes rely on the South Vietnamese staving off destruction, or their gamble will have failed.




LBJ's approval ratings
June 15, 1970

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the current president, Lyndon Johnson, is handling his job as president?

Approve: 47%
Dispprove: 47%