I think, at this point, the 2012 map looks like this:
The states i'm not confident on there though are TX, AK, TN and KY. TX only goes to Obama counting on demographic changes and a weak Republican candidate. TN and KY go to Obama if he gets a massive landslide. In a landslide situaiton, they'd probably be the closest states. AK is Obama's if Palin doesn't get the nomination and he has a great first term, he was within 5%-10% over the summer before Palin was picked as McCain's running mate.
I've left MN, WI and MI grey since they were quite close until McCain basically gave up on them in September.
