EP elections 2014 - Predictions Thread (user search)
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  EP elections 2014 - Predictions Thread (search mode)
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Junior Chimp
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« on: May 18, 2014, 07:07:14 PM »

I'm not making a call on percentages but the order in the UK will go UKIP, Labour, Tory, Green, LibDem.
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,940
United Kingdom
« Reply #1 on: May 20, 2014, 04:48:28 PM »

I am hoping for a full blown repeat of the famous Literal Democrat fiasco.

Which one? I don't think anything - even losing every MEP and coming fifth - can be as humiliating as 2011 was.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Devon_and_East_Plymouth_%28European_Parliament_constituency%29#Results

But yeah, on paper, the Libs losing everything would be a worse result the 2011, but the focus isn't on them this year in the way it was in 2011.
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,940
United Kingdom
« Reply #2 on: May 24, 2014, 06:26:07 PM »

I'm not making a call on percentages but the order in the UK will go UKIP, Labour, Tory, Green, LibDem.

I'm becoming a little bit more optimistic that Labour will pip the purple peril for first.  The polls are all over the place, but recently more of them have shown a small Labour lead, and I think it's quite likely that UKIP will lose a percentage point or two of their more gullible voters to "An Independence From Europe".

Reflecting on the local results, I'm feeling a bit more optimistic that Labour could just about do the impossible and slide past UKIP. I'm looking at the 'An Independence from Europe effect', a weak UKIP result in Scotland, a sort've weak result in Wales and, as with the locals, an under-performance in London. Have to wonder what the effect of many of their strong councils in the South not being up on Thursday will have, compared to very strong showings for Labour in Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds, etc...
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