Eastleigh By-Election

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We Labour hacks will have a fun time seeing the government tear itself to shreds here. Can't wait.

Being realistic, it'll be a LibDem hold, but both coalition parties will be down quite a bit. Labour'll be up a few points, but UKIP'll surge (maybe even finish in 3rd, maybe not).

Lab-Lib tactical voting should be the thing to watch here for those wanting it to tell a story about 2015. Wait for Clegg to swing hard-left for the next few weeks, making his bizarre behaviour since the start of the year look okay.

And the irony here will be that it could be FPTP and UKIP which saves the LibDem's skin.

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Sigh of relief through CCHQ.

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Who's more of a liability to their side here, Nick or Dave? This'll be all about the Labour tactical voters since Farage isn't going for it.

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But have a look at 2010: they had a much larger lead in the borough elections than Huhne did in the big ticket fight.

Might that suggest that Huhne was not much of an asset locally, and may not, in consequence, be much of a loss?

Looking at the local election figures, if they can't hold on here in a by-election they won't hold on anywhere.

Or there's a section of voters in Eastleigh who trust the Liberals with the council, but want to vote for a party which is actually relevant when they have to pick a government.

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28th February.

http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/02/06/if-the-betting-markets-have-got-eastleigh-right-then-the-tories-are-heading-for-a-senstational-by-election-victory/

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National Health Action party are standing, the anti-Health and Social Care act movement of GPs.

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Keep in mind as well, many of their 'safe' seats have sizeable student populations in them as well and by 2015, all undergraduates on 3 year courses will be hit with the £9000. Leeds North West, Fife, etc will be rather interesting to watch on election night.

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The Labour shortlist is...

John O'Farrell - Labour candidate in Windsor & Maidenhead in 2001. And, perhaps more to the point, a well-known writer and broadcaster notable especially (in this context) for that unique political memoir Things Can Only Get Better.

Darren Paffey - Southampton City Councillor (for Peartree; a very much former LibDem stronghold). His day job is as a lecturer at Southampton Uni.

Sarah Rabbitts - a 'communications professional' and former BBC consultant.

I imagine the candidate will be gifted a safe seat in 2015.

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Seems to be a pretty decent pick for a no-hoper like Eastleigh. Only bad for the LibDems really.

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A little jibe sent from Mr. O'Farrell to Maria Hutchings

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That's potentially against electoral  law. It doesn't appear to have the correct electoral imprint on any of the documents, so breaks the relevant regulations on electoral practice.

Were I the LibDem team, I'd be ensuring the police are made aware of the Labour Party breaking the Representation of the People Act, 1983.

It's not campaign material though. It's a personal gift, funded out of O'Farrell's own pocket. A joke.

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That's potentially against electoral  law. It doesn't appear to have the correct electoral imprint on any of the documents, so breaks the relevant regulations on electoral practice.

Were I the LibDem team, I'd be ensuring the police are made aware of the Labour Party breaking the Representation of the People Act, 1983.

It's not campaign material though. It's a personal gift, funded out of O'Farrell's own pocket. A joke.

From the moment a writ is called, all behaviour by candidates are put under the rules on election expenditure. Any material directly related to the election, especially that sent from a candidate, is subject to electoral expenditure rules. If a candidate has sent a communication during election time relating to other election candidates, as he has, and has done so without the full and proper electoral administration, then he has potentially broken the law.

Joke or not, it's the regulations.

He can share a cell with Chris Huhne then.

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Last ditch effort from the blues.

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How were the Tories so seemingly unprepared for this by-election? If this is how they do things, I don't think Labour's got that much to worry about across the rest of the country.

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It's a bit... surprising. Might reflect organisational weakness in the borough?

Could it be Cameron making it fail on purpose in order to please Clegg and keep him in line?

Well, he's definitely done it before with Oldham, but the water's a lot muddier now, of course.

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New Populus poll out (with changes from the GE)

33 (-14) - Liberal
28 (-11) - Conservative
21 (+17) - UKIP
11 (+1) - Labour

Abysmal showing from the main 3. Signs that Labour leaners have moved to the Liberals and UKIP since they were on 19 at the beginning of the month with Populus.

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33%'s not so bad for the Lib Dems. Just holding on is a good result, and they only got 35% in 1997. Seems like Labour should be trying harder; had they done things right, they should have been competitive here with the LDs and Conservatives about even. 28% in the 1994 by-election would put them tied for second at the moment and within striking distance. UKIP obviously eating into the Conservative vote considerably, and preventing them from taking the seat from the LDs. If another big UKIP vote actually materializes in a competitive by-election, it should be very worrying for the Conservatives (especially in LD-Con marginals, but also in many Lab-Con marginals).

Labour have just trolled for the whole campaign here, they don't need to win, but 11% would look bad. They won't be the story on the election night though.

The fallout for Cameron could be messy if they lose. Still, in a by-election, a 5% lead with 5 days to go is nothing.

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It would be hilarious if UKIP pulled an upset and won here.

Weirder things have happened at by-elections. It's unlikely, but they only need about 30-35%.

The reaction from the Coalition parties would be hilarious.

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Any final predictions?

32%
26%
22%
13%
7% for the others.

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The BBC have got This Week anchoring the live by-election coverage after Question Time (as usual) 11:35 - 2:30 on BBC1 and BBC News.

The first time the BBC has bothered putting anything remotely 'special' on for a by-election since Oldham East I believe.

I won't be near a TV/Laptop tomorrow now, so being the sad person that I am, I'm iPlayering it first thing.

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The idea of UKIP in second is really gaining steam today I notice.

I don't see how the PM's backbenchers could live with that. If Labour are winning seats like Corby, then the Tories need seats like Eastleigh to make up for it or they may as well resign and let Ed Miliband form a government today.

They can't afford to be seen as getting a hammering tonight, but no doubt if they do, it'll be Labour's (admittedly poor) result that their spin will be focusing on.

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Wow, you can tell they're a bit worried:

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If anyone can say that the government losing 28% of the vote is positive for them, they're crazy.

Just watching Farage on This Week, he's moaning about the "3 main social democrat parties". The man's mental.

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Wonder if the Liberals can hold on here in 2015...

Any thoughts?

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Obviously the more significant candidates there are, the lower the percentage vote needed to win a first past the post election. I seem to recall that there were results in Papua New Guinea where single member, first past the post seats were won with as little as about 5% of the vote.

In the UK there have been general election results, where the winning candidate had a lower percentage vote than in the Eastleigh by-election; but probably not in England. Belfast North in the 1979 general election, is the lowest I have found in a quick and superficial search (27.6% according to F.W.S. Craig).

Norwich South and it's not to find one in the Scottish results through the years.