Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014

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Darling was much less calm and collected than in the first debate, from the get-go. He seemed constantly rattled and the audience didn't exactly seem the most balanced lot.

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Guardian/ICM poll on the debate has 71% saying Salmond won, 29% Darling.

Well if shouty Salmond had let anybody get a word in edgeways...

He wasn't particularly shouty in either debate. I'll take the 51-49 to no voting intention with ICM. It's a good start.

From an English non-Tory perspective an awful lot of what Salmond says is more an argument for having a better government in Westminster than for Scottish independence.  So it surprises me that you seem so enthusiastic about his campaign.

From an English Labourite, Salmond's agenda just seems needlessly divisive. As much as Cameron's agenda is divisive, just in a different way.

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDi1OXJn4Vw

I can't believe this. Horrendous to watch.

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Yougov coming into line a bit today. No lead is down to 6% from 22% in July.

EDIT: 53-47

I bet both Cameron and Miliband are pretty nervous right now.

Not really. They're still ahead.

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Been a while since politicians displayed such open panic about something.

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PMQs were cancelled so the Big Three can go to Scotland to campaign? And that's supposed to help the No campaign?

Miliband's one thing, but Cameron and Clegg should be as far away from Scotland as they physically can be.

Also, I've just seen on the news that Ed was with Mayor Joe in Liverpool campaigning for Better Together. There's 10 days left, what a waste of time! They should be camped out north of the border by now anyway.

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If Scotland votes yes, will Miliband fall?

No. Keep you eye on Cameron though, he is leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party after all.

A Yes vote brings, of course, a complete unknown. Literally anything could happen. I imagine the rUK public reaction to negotiations will be something akin to "well stuff them then, they don't want us, don't give anything away" even though, right now, the public would prefer Scotland to stay. Could be an issue in the GE and if the Tories and the public don't think Cameron is the guy to take a hardline on negotiations, who knows what the Tory power brokers would do...

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Are Scots naturally late deciders? In 2007 and 2011, Labour led in the polls until late in the day. Are we just seeing a repeat of this dynamic?

Also, on Mark Carney's words today, does he have the same opinion of the nats in Quebec?

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Is there going to be a "unity rally"?

Probably not. Cameron, Miliband and Clegg are here on Wednesday. Nigel Farage is here on Friday and the Orange Order are marching 15,000 to 25,000 strong in Edinburgh at the weekend.

Will there be a 'secession rally'?

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One thing that worries me as a No supporter is that in the 2011 election, the pollsters (although they picked up the SNP surge) were miles of on the result. YouGov had the SNP at 35%!

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As a student, just wondering if Scotland votes Yes, will rUK students starting at Scottish universities within days lose support from Student Finance England post-independence in 2016?

Also worth noting while im on the topic, that most new students/returning students at new Scottish addresses, won't be registered to vote with the week of the referendum being the week many students return to university. A good few thousand rUKers living in Scotland going without the vote next Thursday...

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Ed Miliband calls for locations all around England to raise the Scottish saltire in "solidarity" with Scotland.  Cameron assents and starts raising it above Downing Street.  In the first try to get it up, it falls to the ground after it gets half way up the flagpole.  Metaphor ensues?

Shouldn't Tories be eager to get rid off Scotland?

You'd think, but the Tories have always been very keen on "Queen and country".

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I'm of the view if it ain't broke don't fix it. The United Kingdom as it stands works pretty well overall for all the different countries of the union.

Having said that if the Scots vote for independence the Westminster government really should insist that Scotland will have to have it's own currency.

Using the UK's currency makes no sense for Scotland. Independence should mean true financial independence as well as political sovereignty.

Well exactly. They can't ask for independence just as long as they can keep the good bits of the union. The rUK public wouldn't have it.

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Why wouldn't an independent Scotland simply use the Euro - like Ireland?

I think Scotland would have to apply to join the Euro, and I don't know if their economic indicators will support it, not after they take the big economic hit from separation and losing many companies to the U.K.

While Scotland would need to apply to join the Euro, that is not the reason and their economy would easily meet the requirements for membership. The Euro is simply not an attractive option at the moment.

Alex Salmond is still a politician and the SNP is still a political party. To even whisper about joining the euro would spell electoral armageddon.

If it was in any way feasible, it would've been one of the first suggestions.

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No back ahead with YouGov

52-48 from 49-51.

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No back ahead with YouGov

52-48 from 49-51.

Well, I guess it was fun while it lasted.

The one with Yes ahead looks like more of an outlier. The one before that one was 53-47.

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A legal question, the Yes vote won what happens in the general election? will the Scottish MPs take their seats and be able to vote despite the fact that they will soon be out of the union? if Labour win due to the Scottish vote what happens?

I feel like a generation of future law students will suffer studying this cluster of a constitutional problem.

That's been the £1,000,000 question south of the border and the answer so far has basically been we'll cross that bridge when it comes.

Some have said that Scottish MPs may just be banned from voting on English matters until secession in 2016. I'd imagine if the government's majority rests on Scottish MPs, there'd have to be a snap election post-secession.

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"Expected declaration time" is the biggest lie told on election nights.

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Okay, so Yes Scotland are having a hissy fit over BBC bias.

One of the truisms of British politics is that all sides think the BBC is biased towards the other side. I, personally, think the BBC's coverage has been quite balanced during the referendum.

Yes Scotland also forget they've been backed by Murdoch anyway, but selective amnesia is something that's defined their campaign, so I'm not shocked at this selective outrage.

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Unless Al, in his usual arrogant and condescending way,

Pot, meet kettle.

Anyhoo, my reason for posting here are to say that I'm a huge believer in popular soverignty, but it's downright foolish to leave such a mammoth vastly-reaching event utterly affecting every person to a simple 50%+1 vote. The fact that such an irrevocable change of history should be potentially determined by the momentary (dis)approval of the of the PM or Home Secretary, or some non-story like this twisting the vote based on a momentary sway of fleeting opinion, or bad weather >iminishing turnout in a pro-union stronghold.

There REALLY should be some type of super-majority required; at least 60%, if not 2/3 support. Fwiw, I felt the same way about the Quebec independence referendum,  and and Southern sucession as well.

That is all.

Exactly, the nats love saying that the referendum shouldn't be about Salmond and Sturgeon, completely not realising that they've based a lot of their campaign on bashing Cameron (and Thatcher, of course).

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It's the undecideds, stupid.

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Alex Salmond is predicting another referendum in 2017.

With the SNP at 51% for the next Scottish election - it might well happen...

Scottish Parliament 2016 Projection (based on today's Survation poll)
SNP - 69 seats (N/C)
Labour - 28 seats (-9)
Conservative - 15 seats (N/C)
Green - 7 seats (+5)
UKIP - 5 seats (+5)
Lib Dem - 4 seats (-1)
Socialists - 1 seat (+1)
Independent - 0 seats (-1)

The pro-independence front is up to 77 (+5) in this projection, with the SNP staying strong and the Greens and Socialists gaining.

If the polls since the referendum are to be believed - then a majority want independence right now.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11095188/Alex-Salmond-pledges-no-second-Scottish-referendum.html Reminder of this.

And these polls showing independence ahead are, of course, hypothetical. Do you all really need reminding that in the real thing, just 3 months ago, 'No' won by a larger than expected margin.