UK General Discussion

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So much for Cam's referendum bounce.

It's too bad the election isn't for another two years. 

You're missing the point

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Indeed, when I think of the threatened back of a taxi rump of remaining Liberals, an Eastleigh MP is in there.

Who else is in your taxi?

(Assume capacity 6, as in 1951/55/59.)

Surely Carmichael, Farron, Kennedy, Mark Williams, Cable and, from your suggestion, Huhne.

Of course, what's actually working in the LibDem's favour, with there being more Lib-Con fights than Lib-Lab, is that Tory support is falling away now too. The polls we got in 2011 of results like 42-38-10 would have been even more of a disaster for the Libs. And it goes without saying that, in 2015, freak results (like Eastleigh possible could be) should be expected.

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Who else is in your taxi?

(Assume capacity 6, as in 1951/55/59.)

Surely Carmichael, Farron, Kennedy, Mark Williams, Cable and, from your suggestion, Huhne.

I presume you mean Thornton...

Apart from that, I agree with you except for Williams.  I think if the Lib Dems do that badly (which I don't really think likely, btw) Plaid should take Ceredigion back.

I meant Huhne, if we'd been talking back when it looked like they'd scrape 8-9 seats.

And, to me, Ceredigion seems like on of the most unpredictable seats in the country.

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John Denham's retirement in the very marginal Southampton Itchen should make a competitive and open contest.

Any inroads in places like this for the Liberals will be struck down by the fact that the Liberals aren't at 24% anymore...

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The big news tonight comes from Moodys. They've downgraded the credit rating.

With less significance, a UKIP MEP has defected to the Tories.

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All this means that there will be no British say in the Conclave.

Oh no.

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Just seen a random tweet saying that UKIP are in the same position Labour was in 100 years ago. They're a hilarious bunch.

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Just seen a random tweet saying that UKIP are in the same position Labour was in 100 years ago. They're a hilarious bunch.

100 years ago, Labour had over 40 MPs.

To be fair, UKIP is polling better than Labour did in the PV in the Dec 1910 election.

What electoral reform will be undertaken in the UK, which will allow the UKIP to gain voters (or the other parties to lose voters), in the way that universal suffrage allowed Labour to gain voters in the years following 1910?

None.

And UKIP's main demographic, (small-c) conservative, old, rich, white men have never really struggled with the franchise.

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I see Miriam caved to Nick Clegg. They're sending their son to a Catholic comprehensive (a "strict" one, for good measure).

All this comes after the kick off last month over Mrs González-Clegg wanting to send their son to a private.

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the Labour vote actually declines

It didn't.

What I really want to see is a by-election in a seat like Cambridge or Bristol West, I want to see if students stick with Lib Dems.

They haven't been and they won't.

With what local elections had shown us about Eastleigh, this result could've been predicted (albeit, not the UKIP surge, but the Liberal win). In a local campaign, which wouldn't decide the government at the end of the day, the Liberals had no business losing. And even then, their voters didn't stick with them - their decline in vote share (-14.48%) was the second worst we've seen for them in all of this parliament's by-elections (the first being Manchester Central) and this was completely in line with their national polling position (the UKPR average has them at 10%, down 14 on 2010).

Local results in seats like Norwich, Cambridge, Leeds NW, Fife, Cardiff, Withington have been brutal for them. Not to mention in their university targets: Oxford, Sheffield Central, Edinburgh, Durham, Newcastle...

Bristol though, to be fair, could be one of the places where they don't do as badly as expected. They're still the biggest group on the council and they still have the upper hand going into the May locals, although Labour could edge them out.

I'd think that in 2015, these are the seats in which we'll see most clearly this 'realignment of the left' that's being talked up. These as well as decent swings to Labour in already safe northern cities like Liverpool (where the shift away from the Liberals started at the 2010 election, even before the coalition), Manchester and Newcastle.

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The Labour vote did decline in Eastleigh, so after 3 years of "brutal cuts" as Labour say, they failed to increse their number of supporters, that is pathetic.

Eastleigh Labour vote
2010 - 5,153
2013 - 4,088

Labour is in for a 1992 style shock, not a 1983 style win.

And the governing parties lost 20,000 votes between them and nearly 30% of the vote share, so I don't get your point really.

Unless you're suggesting that UKIP will be swept into number 10 in 2015? Aha.

I mean you guys are suggesting that Lib Dem voters will naturally swing to Labour, where did that happen in Eastleigh, lol it didn't.

Eastleigh's been the exception, not the rule.

Before the last election, the Tories did crap in places where they had no hope like Glasgow NE, Livingston and Sedgefield and still won.

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Yeah, if the AV referendum was held now, the Tories wouldn't be so harsh about it...

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Dodged a bullet as far as I'm concerned. If and when the Right ever do become converts to the cause of electoral reform*, I'll be glad that AV's dead and buried as an option, so they'll have to offer something which doesn't just allow them to use other parties voters as ammunition (meanwhile rewarding those parties with no extra seats).  

*which I'm reasonably optimistic might happen if we're entering 4 party politics for a sustained period, and one which overwhelmingly hinders the Right's chance of governing.

MMP

Yeah, AV deserved the kicking it got as anyone registered on a site like this should recognise.

MMP or AV+ on the other hand...

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I am not a tory btw (I really couldn't care less what neo-liberal party rules the UK) but the UKIP split is not just bad news for the tories, UKIP are attracting voters from all the parties for example in Rotherham the Labour vote increased by 1.62%, yet the Liberal Democrat vote declined by 13.87% so the idea that Liberal Democrats are naturally swinging to Labour across the board is not correct.

I stand by my opinion, that yes there will be Labour gains in the next election and yes they have a good chance of entering government but it will be with the Liberal Democrats, they will not get a majority no party will, the UKIP surge wont last long either, remember there was a BNP surge in Labour seats during the mid 2000s, nothing came of that. When it comes down to it, you vote for Labour or the Tories or against such.

True, but with the Liberals in such decline, there'll be less space in terms of seats for there to be a hung parliament. For that to happen, you need strong non-Lab/Con force(s) actually winning seats.

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People need to read the whole conversation before they comment. Eastleigh is not the only seat that Liberal Democrats did not swing heavily to Labour, Rotherham is another.

While we're drawing such conclusions, I can only assume George Galloway'll win a landslide for Respect in 2015.

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Cameron telling a stinker at PMQs. Apparently he thinks parents with disabled kids are exempt from the bedroom tax... when they're not (just those who need overnight care).

How can he put through policies like this which he doesn't even understand himself?

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Sort of on that topic, who do people think will win Bradford West in the next General Election?

Galloway marginally.

Yeah, it's Galloway's to lose. Definitely has more chance of getting himself rooted in than he did in Bethnal Green.

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In reference to the Eastleigh conversation, Smithson's helpfully posted the 26 seats Labour need to become the largest party...



Keep in mind that the swing they got in target 22 was 12.7%.

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Backbenchers saying it's Osbourne churning out the Theresa May/Phil Hammond stuff.

Budget day's gonna be fun this year.

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?&v=u2bicGi6Kfo

Chuka's starstruck.

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Ashdown calls on activists to help "win" a second term.

No party that loses 10-15% on their previous election has a mandate to be part of the government. Wasn't that part of the reasoning they had for saying no to Labour in 2010?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21724754

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Ashdown calls on activists to help "win" a second term.

No party that loses 10-15% on their previous election has a mandate to be part of the government. Wasn't that part of the reasoning they had for saying no to Labour in 2010?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21724754

They said no to Labour because the two parties didn't have a majority together, so they couldn't form a government, and Labour didn't want to go scrounging for votes from the nationalists and NI parties. But, hey, feel free to believe your own propaganda.

That was the primary reason, yes.

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Ashdown calls on activists to help "win" a second term.

No party that loses 10-15% on their previous election has a mandate to be part of the government. Wasn't that part of the reasoning they had for saying no to Labour in 2010?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21724754

They said no to Labour because the two parties didn't have a majority together, so they couldn't form a government, and Labour didn't want to go scrounging for votes from the nationalists and NI parties. But, hey, feel free to believe your own propaganda.

Even before the election Clegg made it clear they were going to ask the party with the most seats (code for Tories). Even if Labour had the seats he would have went with the Tories, I've seen nothing to suggest it was arithmetic working against his preference (in a way Hughes and Kennedy have made clear since) and plenty to suggest he's more at home with Tories - like the FDP to the CDU.

Things'll get dicey if there's another hung parliament in 2015. Labour will at least want Clegg's head (in the same way they demanded Brown's and then still said no) and even then, the rank-and-file will struggle to stomach it after 2010-15.

But this is interesting:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/jan/20/miliband-clegg-relationship-improving

On another topic, all eyes were on Theresa May today. It's being seen as a bit've a warning shot at the PM, of sorts. Don't see how she'd play with the public as leader, she comes off as abrasive to me and she always seems to be bested by Yvette Cooper.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-mays-speech-leaves-tories-in-no-doubt--shes-after-the-top-job-8527924.html

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This whole idea of pulling out of the ECHR disturbs me. How many dictatorships would cite our example in response?

Just goes to show that UKIP holds more sway with this government than the Liberals ever have.

Truly disturbing.