France 2012: the official thread

[You kip if you want to...]

Is that Montebourg at 18%? If it is, good for him.

But still, if the PS nominate Aubry, they will confirm their status as a complete and utter joke. Defeat from the jaws of victory - again.

[You kip if you want to...]

I hear the PS website broke down today with everyone trying to find their polling place. lol.

[You kip if you want to...]

If we were in the US, Montebourg would be the VP nominee tonight

Montebourg and Royal will say how to vote tomorrow and "soon", respectively.
Hard to say from what they said.
But if Hollande changes his positioning to please Montebourg, he'd be a Romney

Valls will vote Hollande, without surprise.

1 821 778

38.95
30.64
17.3
6.86
5.65
0.6

Whoever Sego backs will lead to some awkwardness either way. I'm thinking she'll go with Hollande.

[You kip if you want to...]

Baylet endorsed Hollande, from what I saw on a computer screen in the living room.

http://www.leparisien.fr/flash-actualite-politique/primaire-ps-jean-michel-baylet-prg-appelle-a-soutenir-hollande-10-10-2011-1647697.php

[You kip if you want to...]

I really hate to ask such a seemingly simple question, but I just started following this thread and really don't have an opinion of any of the candidates (Aubry, Hollande, or Sarkozy for that matter).  But is Sarkozy really in as much trouble as the polls seem to suggest, and if so who is the stronger candidate in you opinions to beat him (Aubry or Hollande)?

Yes, he is and Hollande.

[You kip if you want to...]

Just watching Hollande on tonight's TF1 20h. He seems rather insincere (trying too hard to be 'normal'), but maybe that's just me...

[You kip if you want to...]

Montebourg has overplayed his result, I think (now, some of his supporters speak about creating a "movement": my God, this will not be well received by socialists !)

Pulling a Palin.

[You kip if you want to...]

The PS site is awful. The map could atleast be coloured or something, come on.

[You kip if you want to...]

Coming up to about 10% reporting, Hollande at 56.81%.

[You kip if you want to...]

Hollande's won this. Now, onto beating Sarko.

[You kip if you want to...]

Considering all of the other candidates basically endorsed Francois, this shouldn't really be a surprise...

[You kip if you want to...]

Francois' over a million.

[You kip if you want to...]

The big news re: legislative elections is the PS-Greenies deal, which is causing quite a stir in both parties thanks to stuff like nuclear energy. Anyways, the Greenies seem to have gotten quite a fair bit of seats and stand a chance at winning in some 10-20 of them. Duflot will be running in a PS-held seat in Paris, which the incumbent doesn't like and which Delanoe and Hidalgo are also pissed off about.

Is there any chance of France ever having PR for parliamentary elections so as to avoid such disputes and infighting in the future? 

Probably not. This happens in every constituency system...

[You kip if you want to...]

The big news re: legislative elections is the PS-Greenies deal, which is causing quite a stir in both parties thanks to stuff like nuclear energy. Anyways, the Greenies seem to have gotten quite a fair bit of seats and stand a chance at winning in some 10-20 of them. Duflot will be running in a PS-held seat in Paris, which the incumbent doesn't like and which Delanoe and Hidalgo are also pissed off about.

Is there any chance of France ever having PR for parliamentary elections so as to avoid such disputes and infighting in the future? 

The PS-Green deal involves some sort of MMP system for the next elections, with some 20% of seats elected by PR.

Apparently no deal whatsoever between the FG and PS-Greens. All PCF incumbents will have PS and Green opponents.

If it's only 20%, there's barely much point.

[You kip if you want to...]

last IFOP poll


hollande 32.5  (-2.5)
sarkozy 26 (+1)
le pen 19 (+2)

Surge-kozy begins.

Or, the Marine-Momentum!

[You kip if you want to...]

I've just heard about a LH2 poll giving 30 to Hollande and 29 for Sarkozy. Was it published ?

I know LH2 sucks, but how can this be true ?

Eurocrisis bounce?

[You kip if you want to...]

A win's a win even if it's by 1 vote. Sarko only wins if Hollande doesn't finish in the top 2. No French president's ever been elected by an astonishing margin, all that.

How's Sarko's response to the conference the other week and David Cameron's 'flounce bounce' (the veto) been received over there?

[You kip if you want to...]

Errrr....best of luck to him.

The Mirror gives Le President de la Republique a sex change.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[You kip if you want to...]

If the PS manages to lose yet again, I think it's time for them to disband and let another party take up the left-wing mantle. This is ridiculous.

This.

[You kip if you want to...]

Hello everybody,

It seems that Paris Match and IFOP have started a daily poll

Hollande 27%
Sarkozy 23.5%
Le Pen 21.5%
Bayrou 13%

In the second round, always the same gap between Hollande and Sarkozy : 57-43

Marinementum again?

[You kip if you want to...]

LOL, Ségo. Although, no need for her to be shafted.

http://www.huffingtonpost.fr/2012/01/23/bourget-segolene-royal_n_1222803.html?ref=france

[You kip if you want to...]

Just reading that the Sarko camp called Hollande's rally "arrogant" and "self important".

[You kip if you want to...]

Just read on SPIEGEL Online that Angela Merkel is planning to actively campaign for Sarkozy. This unprecedented move has supposedly pissed off Hollande and the French socialists pretty bad.

Any word on this in French media??

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/0,1518,813455,00.html

This may backfire. Merkel is the new Bismarck. French people should HATE her ¬¬

Merkel's actively backing Sarko? Definately want Hollande to win now.

[You kip if you want to...]

What are the chances that Marine doesn't make the ballot (she's at 340 signitures) and would this be good for Sarko, by default?

[You kip if you want to...]

Sarko on gay marriage:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I don't think i've ever read anything so populist. "In these troubled times", eugh, troll President.