Welsh Assembly Elections 2011

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Lib Dems HOLD Montgomeryshire (Lib Dem 39% Con 30%)

Does Lembit losing imply rough seas ahead for the Liberals at assembly level?

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(Llafur, btw, is a very pretty word)

How's it pronounced? Like Laugher?

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Yeah....Wales had never exactly been the Lib Dems' hotbed.

It's never really been a hot bed for anything other Labour since the 1920s...

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The latest YouGov (I suspect that I may have missed one, but it doesn't matter greatly right now) has attracted attention elsewhere, but here it is here also:

Constituency: Llafur 44, Con 23, Plaid 21, LDem 6
List: Llafur 42, Con 22, Plaid 21, LDem 5, UKIP 5

The LibDems tied with the Communist Party in the North region.

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YouGov/ITV Wales
24th-28th January 2011

Constituency
45 (+1)
21 (nc)
21 (-2)
7 (+1)

Regions
41 (-1)
21 (-1)
20 (+1)
8 (+3)

UKPR says this would give Labour the majority.

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LDem 5, UKIP 5, Greens 4

Please can UKIP and the Greens gain ground

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The Greens are at 11% in South Central. They'd win AMs on that. They're good at targetting resources, the Greens. UKIP aren't.

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And now, a poll by a different outfit. Clarity for the Western Mail...

Llafur 50.8, Con 20.3, Plaid 16.7, LDem 7.6, Other 1.5, Greens 1.4, UKIP 1.2, BNP 0.4

Treat with as much salt as you fell appropriate.

A whole grit bin.

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Another YouGov poll was out the other day...

Constituency: Llafur 49, Con 20, Plaid 17, LDem 8
List: Llafur 44, Con 20, Plaid 18, LDem 8, UKIP 4, Greenies 2

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Something important to note at this point I think; everyone seems to be operating under the assumption that only a relatively small number of seats will change hands overall (the media narrative is 'can Labour win a majority?') but if the sort of polling numbers seen recently are repeated at the ballot box then a lot of constituency seats may end up joining in for the ride.

Put it like this... in 2003 (when Labour won thirty seats) on the constituency vote the Party had a lead over Plaid of 18.8, over the Tories of 20.1 and over the LibDems of 25.9. If we assume that this latest offering from YouGov is accurate and is also the final result (there are reasons to question this, of course, but let's run with the idea for now) then Labour would have a lead of 32 over Plaid, 29 over the Tories and 41 (!) over the LibDems. Does that look like a repeat of 2003 to you?

I'm not exactly predicting that to occur, but I'm surprised that the thought has not crossed the mind of many (any?) commentators. I suppose this odd fact might just come from a failure to understand the electoral system.

They might just be trying to find a story. A foregone conclusion is never interesting for the media.