Scottish Parliamentary Elections (May 5, 2011)

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http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2772

My guess is that a Lab minority is coming to Scotland. Would they really coalition with the Liberals while attacking the Westminister Liberals for doing just that with the Tories?

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http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2987

Labour majority.

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The AV referendum result will apparently delay the result until the Saturday

http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/scotland/Holyrood-result-to-be-delayed.6706200.jp

If the use those %*£!ing machines again we'll know the result by next year

Bloody hell. You'd think they'd try and be more efficient if they're gonna spend £100 million on a referendum.

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TNS-BMRB/Herald:

Constituency
44 (-5)
29 (-4)
12 (+3)
11 (+4)

Regionals
39 (-8)
29 (-4)
11 (+2)
10 (+3)
6 (+3)

Seats (from Scotland Votes)
59 (+13)
39 (-8)
12 (-5)
12 (-4)
6 (+4)
1 (nc)

TNS changed their methods, explaining the big swings here. Also, the last TNS was quite suspect anyway - Labour was up on 49%.

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Which of the following is most likely?

Labour/Green coalition
Labour/Liberal
Labour minority
SNP minority
SNP/Green
SNP/Tory
SNP/Liberal

I've been reading about Labour/Green or SNP/Tory trying to form if the numbers are there...

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New poll; was on STV earlier - not sure who it was by

Labour  38/35
SNP      37/35
Tory     15/14
Lib Dem  7/8
Green     -/5

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It was by The New Saints, so is best ignored.

Still, the movement away from Labour towards the SNP (and the Tories?) is undoubtable and I hope that Miliband and Gray are worried by it.

I can't see a Scots Labour government being able to do much with a 1 or 2 seat lead since the Tories and the SNP are hardly viable partners and Lab-Lib bridges seem to be very much on fire.

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As long as the SNP remain strong, relative to their 2007 performance, it will be very difficult due to the maths with the D'Hondt system for the parties outside of the main four to make any seats. It is unlikely that the Greens will make much advance on their current 2 seats. It is increasingly likely that there won't be the Green presence Labour need to get a majority.

It is important to note that both the Lib Dems and the Tories have said that the arrangement that existed from 2007-11 allowing a minority government (and quite the minority at that) to hold power will not be tolerated. So a minority government is not on the cards.

Labour have not had a good relationship with the other parties at Holyrood. The Parliament structure, it's comittee's and it's compactness promotes close association. Labour will sit at committee and oppose, the Tories and the Lib Dems will negotiate and the pattern repeats itself. The last Budget, in which every party (bar the Greens) got concessions was a good example of this level of co-operation. But Labour voted it down, despite getting what they wanted.

Remember, that the shock of 2007 was that the Liberal Democrats were not willing to go into any coalition with Labour. They were burnt out. They will be even more burnt out this time. An informal 'supply' deal with the Tories could be tempting. It would allow both parties to be safe face publically. But if the gap between Labour and the SNP is close, you can bet that the SNP will try and get in there first.

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Also. First of the Leader's Debates tonight

BBC1 Scotland?

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I'm feeling that Salmond will still be FM after the election... If that was the case, May 5th would be a crap night for Lib, Lab and Con, bit like last year I guess.

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Yup, the SNP are staying. Bad times for Ed.

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Lab, 36. SNP, 9. Greens, -4. Liberals, -7. Tory, -10.

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lolmorgothpress

(see their cover from the last election for the cause of the laughter)

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Anyway... so far at least do we seem (the record of Scottish polls being a little dodgy at times - though better than the ones out here, naturally) to be seeing Labour boosted by better Labour turnout, while the SNP benefit from switchers from the national Coalition partners? I mean in crude generalising terms.

SNP 2007 votes are going to Labour and 2007 Lib/Con voters are making up for it, and more. Crudely.

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Eugh.

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Poll due tonight reportedly places the SNP 'close to a majority'

Given the sort of numbers needed for that, sounds like an outlier or something by one of those dubious little outfits, but better to wait and see.

It's for Newsnight apparently, so...

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10% regional and 11% const lead for the SNP. Just nearly choked on my Pepsi.

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Well, Gray won't be Leader of the Opposition much longer anyway, whether his constituents sack him or the party does...

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Alex Salmond has just ruled out a coalition with the Tories. It was never on the cards anyway; it's barred in the SNP's constitution

Is it? How so? I never knew

But anyway, I'm sure the Liberals will be all too happy to be a junior partner. They'll end up as avid nationalists the day after the election.

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Alex Salmond has just ruled out a coalition with the Tories. It was never on the cards anyway; it's barred in the SNP's constitution

Is it? How so? I never knew

But anyway, I'm sure the Liberals will be all too happy to be a junior partner. They'll end up as avid nationalists the day after the election.

The likely outcome is an SNP minority government with a continued 'confidence and supply' agreement with the Tories.

I thought all sides were aiming for a coalition this time round.

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Who did the poll?

Ipsos Mori for The Times and Newsnight

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Finally got round to watching the debate. Does Iain Gray know it's not a great idea to be a lecturer and talk down to voters? ANYONE would be put off by him!

Alex Salmond is... Alex Salmond.
Goldie comes across as competent.
Tavish comes across quite well, if quiet, could never vote Liberal though. Nick Clegg came across well too, last year.

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Two new polls to give SNP 'significant' leads.

Atleast Ed still has the locals (hopefully)...

A bad night for all 3 parties really. A bit like last year.

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The Wedding and all the Union Jacks-a-flyin' to knock a point or two off the SNP's poll rating?

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I thought that was common knowledge...

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What are the chances of the Liberals becoming Scotland's 5th party?

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Holyrood constituency: CON 15%(-2), LAB 27%(-6), LDEM 10%(-7), SNP 45%(+11)
Holyrood regional: CON 16%(+2), LAB 25%(-4), LDEM 9%(-2), SNP 38%(+7), Green 8%(+4)

From TNS