No. Virginia will never vote Republcian at the presidential level as long as MAGA controls the GOP. Youngkin was able to con people to think he was a George W. Bush/Mitt Romney Republican.
If the 2024 Republian nominee is MAGA, VA is safe D
Virginia would not vote for a George W. Bush Republican today despite the 21,000 Cia Agents (of which I doubt even a majority live in Virginia).
Mitt Romney did not even carry it.
Mitt Romney won 47%. Obama won the state by 3.88%, winning nationally by 3.86%. I suspect that had Mitt Romney won the presidential election he’d probably win Virginia