House Results without Gerrymandering

[Pres Mike]

What does the state delegations map look like?

Right now its 22-26-2

Democrats control 22 state delegations. Republicans control 26. MN and NC are equal.

Perhaps AZ stays a Democratic delegation? Perhaps IA is split?

In the event of a 269-269 electoral tie, the House votes. You would need 26 state delegations so it might be wise for Democrats to try win MT-1, denying Republicans 26 delegations.

I suspect after the 2030 census, Georgia might have a split delegation. With Atlanta's explosive growth, it would be hard to gerrymander that city.

[Pres Mike]

What does the state delegations map look like?

19D-26R-5T

I gave Dems one more district in Texas based on politicallefty's comments, and I assigned the two uncertain Dem seats to SC and NE rather than CO and VA for the sake of geographic diversity. Still, despite gaining 6 seats, Democrats actually fare much worse in terms of state delegations due to RI, NV and OR ending up tied.

Fascinating 

A 269-269 is unlikely after the 2020 census but not impossible

If Republicans flipped GA, AZ, NV and NE-2 than it’s 269. But it’s unlikely Nevada would flip before Wisconsin