US House Redistricting: Idaho

[BoiseBoy]

Idaho uses a six-person commission to draw its maps.

Commissioners for the upcoming cycle include:

• Bart Davis, former state senator (District 33) and senate majority leader (R)
• Nels Mitchell, lawyer and 2014 senate nominee (D)
• Amber Pence, aide to former Boise mayor Dave Bieter (D)
• Eric Redman, former state representative (District 2B) (R)
• Dan Schmidt, former state senator (District 5 and 6) (D)
• Tom Dayley, former state representative (District 21B) and former state director of the FSA (R)

Idaho will have two congressional districts and 35 state legislative districts.

In terms of the congressional map, I expect one that minimally changes the existing map. ID-02 is currently underpopulated and will likely take in more of Boise.



I have no idea what to expect for the state legislative map.

Thoughts?

[BoiseBoy]

I wonder if there’s any viable way to make a little change map without a Boise “snake”?

The biggest question is going to be whether Dems have a realistic path to break the GOP’s supermajority in the state legislature. ID geography currently favors the GOP, so it’s really about Will they go out of their way to “unpack” Boise.

It would be hard to crack the supermajority. I would say there's no realistic path for that whatsoever. Democrats would need hold 24 seats or more (out of 70 house seats) to break our supermajority. They currently hold 12.

In the senate, Democrats would need to hold 12 or more seats out of 35. They currently hold 7.

My best efforts to gerrymander the map for Democrats has led to 8 Democrat senate seats (which would translate to 15-16 house seats).

Democrats will not have a chance to break our supermajority until Ada and Canyon shift left enough to where they can pick up a few seats from there, and maybe one or two in Idaho Falls or Coeur d'Alene. Breaking up Boise, if it stretched into some of the rurals, would be majorly unpopular, and also in violation of our redistricting guidelines.

As for our national congress, our north is very different from the rest of the state, culturally and economically. If ID-02 did not reach into Boise, it would have to snake up into the panhandle.

Also, Boise REALLY does not fit with North Idaho. That would not go over well. We are very different kinds of Idahoans. Idaho really needed/needs a third district. This would solve so many problems. We could have one district focusing on Ada/Canyon, one district for central/east/southern Idaho, and one for west/north Idaho. I suppose we have to wait until 2032.

[BoiseBoy]

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=416549.0
We already have a thread.

If mods could merge this thread into the existing one, that would be great.

[BoiseBoy]

This is a least change map with a deviation of 19 people (and probably the most realistic map going forward as I don't see a North/East and South/West district working out). The current ID-02, needing to take in more of Ada County as it's about 35,000 people short, does so here. It's very similar to the map I posted on August 2, with a few precincts swapped due to the Census data release.

[BoiseBoy]

The Idaho Commission will hold its first three public meetings on September 1, 2, and 3 at the State Capitol in Boise.

https://legislature.idaho.gov/redistricting/2021/

[BoiseBoy]

Population deviation of 2 (+/- 1)

CD1: Trump +20.8, Little +13.1
CD2: Trump +43.4, Little +32.8

I don't know how happy the North will be if they're paired with "liberal city" Boise. I still think an East/West split is the most practical and likely for a 2 CD Idaho.

[BoiseBoy]

An article discussing possible county splits in North Idaho for the new legislative map:
https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2021/aug/31/redistricting-committee-likely-to-split-northern-i/

Today is also the first day the commission will meet. It will be largely uneventful. At 11 AM MST, they will review their requirements for redistricting. They will also discuss the history of redistricting in the state at some point. At 3 PM MST, they will review the current lines and look at Maptitude (the software they will use to draw lines).

September 2 and 3 is when they will actually begin to draw preliminary maps.

If you wish, you can watch here starting at 9:30 AM MST:
https://www.idahoptv.org/shows/idahoinsession/

[BoiseBoy]

The second CD map is not going to be enacted. No way.

I'm fine with the state legislature map but a few of the district shapes bug me (like stretching outer Twin into Fairfield)

[BoiseBoy]

A lot of Ada County residents are pushing for the county to be kept whole, which would likely mean a Southwestern Idaho district (similar to what the commission's second plan looks like) if they got their wish. I prefer the least-change plan, and I still feel that is the most likely outcome.

https://twitter.com/lfinneytweets/status/1439317981721346048?s=20

[BoiseBoy]

The Idaho Redistricting Commission will have its maps completed by the end of November:

https://twitter.com/LillianBelle2/status/1444837551592783872?s=20

[BoiseBoy]

Did ID get the worst deal in terms of threshold for a new CD? 919k people per district...?

We really need a third district. Here’s hoping for 2031.

[BoiseBoy]

The Commission has another draft legislative map up (L02). I greatly preferred the first one to this current iteration. It seems like the panhandle is really getting shafted here with ugly lines.

https://legislature.idaho.gov/wp-content/uploads/redistricting/2021/maps/L02.pdf

[BoiseBoy]

The commission has posted another congressional map today (C03). It has a total population deviation of 0. This will likely be the final map, and a vote will be held Friday November 5.

[BoiseBoy]

Final votes on legislative and congressional maps will be today at 3:35 Mountain Time.

You can watch the meeting here: https://www.idahoptv.org/shows/idahoinsession/

[BoiseBoy]

The commission has passed legislative map L03 6-0 and has passed congressional map C03 4-2. Four votes are needed, so Idaho is done with redistricting!

[BoiseBoy]

The commission has passed legislative map L03 6-0 and has passed congressional map C03 4-2. Four votes are needed, so Idaho is done with redistricting!

Who were the no votes?

Nels Mitchell and Dan Schmidt. Two of the three Democrats on the commission.

[BoiseBoy]

The commission has passed legislative map L03 6-0 and has passed congressional map C03 4-2. Four votes are needed, so Idaho is done with redistricting!

Who were the no votes?

Nels Mitchell and Dan Schmidt. Two of the three Democrats on the commission.

Did they want a Boise district?

Essentially, both of them have concerns with county/city splitting. The new map cuts into Ada County, and splits Eagle.

[BoiseBoy]

The state legislative map was challenged in court, with the claim that it split counties and precincts unnecessarily. The Idaho Supreme Court has upheld the map.

A separate challenge was made against the congressional map. No ruling has been made yet.

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1486845139230367751?s=20&t=zl0Lj0gK...

[BoiseBoy]

The congressional map has been upheld by the Idaho Supreme Court in a unanimous decision. It was alleged that the map was submitted late and unnecessarily split precincts.

https://twitter.com/idcourts/status/1492207612166770688