2020 Oregon Redistricting

[BoiseBoy]

Not a map per say, but here is an article from The Oregonian published today.

It's a subscriber exclusive, so unless you have a subscription (like I do) it's behind the paywall unless you want to pay a few $$$ to get a "new subscriber discount".

Don't want to exceed guidelines when it comes to copywrite articles but here's one item which stood out from what is a very well written article:

Communities of interest

This time around, lawmakers will base the maps on 2020 population data the Census Bureau plans to release Thursday. It will show which areas of the state have grown and shrunk in population and provide some information about the “communities of interest” Salinas referenced, a broad term in Oregon law that can be interpreted as neighborhoods, school districts, unincorporated communities and other ties that connect people.

One such tie Democrats will be eyeing is race and ethnicity, particularly among the state’s fast-growing number of Latinos who are citizens of voting age. While Latinos make up an estimated 13% of the state’s population, just one House district, corresponding to less than 2% of the 60 House seats, has a majority Latino population. That is House District 22, centered on Woodburn and held for a third term by Rep. Teresa Alonso León, who immigrated to the U.S. as a child with her migrant farmworker parents.

In addition to overall population counts, the census information will show the race and ethnicity of voting-age adults and of children. The census does not ask people about their party registration or preferences, but party registration by address is available from the state elections office....   

....Salinas said population estimates in recent years have shown significant population growth in parts of Washington County — Portland State University’s modeling predicted a countywide increase from the 2010 census to 2020 census of more than 73,000 people. And, if the actual census population count bears that out, Salinas said it could make sense to “start there to see where our sixth congressional district is.” The university’s population modeling showed a still larger increase of 79,000 residents in Multnomah County.

https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2021/08/oregon-lawmakers-prepare-to-draw-new-congressional-legislative-districts.html

I read it using a paywall bypass and it says they plan to release drafts on September 3rd. Also lots of signs that the Democrats will indeed pursue a fair map which likely dooms DeFazio and probably isn't good news for Schrader or Dem prospects in the new seat, either

The article says they hope to post them BY September 3, so we could get a peek at the draft maps earlier. Starting September 8, public forums will be held to get feedback on the drafts. The week of September 20, the legislature will have a special session to vote on the drafts.

[BoiseBoy]

"Oregon lawmakers are about to debate new political maps. Can they find agreement?"

https://www.opb.org/article/2021/09/02/oregon-lawmakers-debate-redistricting/

[BoiseBoy]

<br /><br /><br /><br />State Senate's Proposed Maps.<br /><br />F I V E - O N E<br />I<br />V<br />E<br />-<br />O<br />N<br />E<br /><br />[/img]

I would love to have a 2R, 3D, 1 Tossup for proportionality sake but that's not a realistic outcome.
Plan B as posted on their site seems to have 2 R districts at least.

[BoiseBoy]

Ran the 2016 presidential numbers for Plan A

OR-01: Clinton+35.1
OR-02: Trump+28.3
OR-03: Clinton+29.8
OR-04: Clinton+7.9
OR-05: Clinton+12.4
OR-06: Clinton+8.8


DO IT FUTURE GOVERNOR KOTEK

What are Plan B's numbers?

[BoiseBoy]

2 Safe R, 3 Safe D, one Likely D (Clinton +8):

[BoiseBoy]

PlanScore ratings for the three state house map proposals:

A (37-23 D)



B (30-30 D)



C (37-23 D)

[BoiseBoy]

If we lived in a better world with a guarantee that Republicans would not gerrymander Florida, Texas, or Ohio, I would greatly prefer the Plan B map. It's far more aesthetically pleasing.

[BoiseBoy]

So just to clarify, this map is most likely the final map? From what I've read the House Redistricting Committee has passed it and there will be a full House vote at 1 PM Pacific?

[BoiseBoy]

Well congrats to Oregon I guess for finishing first. I was hoping for a 4-2 map (3-3 is unrealistic) but the state GOP really blew it on this one.

[BoiseBoy]

Does anyone know if the new map's available to view in DRA anywhere?

Here. I wish DRA had 2020 data for Oregon.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/6aac3f95-4660-4fbf-b7e0-3dee7aa517d5

[BoiseBoy]

DRA has added 2020 Presidential data so here is how all the districts voted on the new map.



OR-01: Biden 67.8, Trump 28.9 (D+38.9) (+10 more D from old lines)
OR-02: Trump 60.7, Biden 36.4 (R+24.3) (+10.8 more R from old lines)
OR-03: Biden 72.0, Trump 25.0 (D+47.0) (+3.6 more R from old lines)
OR-04: Biden 54.7, Trump 42.0 (D+12.7) (+8.8 more D from old lines)
OR-05: Biden 52.8, Trump 44.0 (D+8.8) (+0.8 more R from old lines)
OR-06: Biden 54.8, Trump 41.7 (D+13.1)

[BoiseBoy]

DRA has added 2020 Presidential data so here is how all the districts voted on the new map.



OR-01: Biden 67.8, Trump 28.9 (D+38.9) (+10 more D from 2016)
OR-02: Trump 60.7, Biden 36.4 (R+24.3) (+10.8 more R from 2016)
OR-03: Biden 72.0, Trump 25.0 (D+47.0) (+3.6 more R from 2016)
OR-04: Biden 54.7, Trump 42.0 (D+12.7) (+8.8 more D from 2016)
OR-05: Biden 52.8, Trump 44.0 (D+8.8) (+0.8 more R from 2016)
OR-06: Biden 54.8, Trump 41.7 (D+13.1)

It’d be nice to see what the 2016 results looked like on the upcoming 2022 district map. I highly doubt either the current or the upcoming OR-1 swung that much from HRC to Biden.

OR-01: Clinton 60.7, Trump 28.1 (D+32.6) (+10.7 more D from old lines)
OR-02: Trump 59.0, Clinton 31.3 (R+27.7) (+8.3 more R from old lines)
OR-03: Clinton 66.6, Trump 23.4 (D+43.2) (+3.5 more R from old lines)
OR-04: Clinton 48.5, Trump 40.5 (D+8.0) (+7.9 more D from old lines)
OR-05: Clinton 45.9, Trump 43.0 (D+2.9) (+1.2 more R from old lines)
OR-06: Clinton 47.4, Trump 40.7 (D+6.7)

[BoiseBoy]

Oregon Republicans have sued to block the new maps, declaring them unconstitutional.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/576330-oregon-republicans-sue-to-block-democrats-redistricting-plan

[BoiseBoy]

Independent redistricting has failed to make it onto the ballot for 2022. It will be refilled and will attempt to make it onto the 2024 ballot.

https://twitter.com/redistrictnet/status/1521162818816512001?s=21&t=Aq7fXk8B...