FL- St Pete is not an accurate poll at all

[THG]

1) https://thehill.com/campaign-polls/414865-poll-gillum-leads-desantis-by-7-points-in-florida-governor-race

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/280161-st-pete-polls-andrew-gillum-holds-5-point-lead-heading-into-election-day/

^ This was before the election in 2018.

Yeah, remember the now infamous Gillum+5 poll? It was them. Using their own logic DeSantis probably would defeat Crist by 7 or 8 points (which is what I expect the margin to be in 2022).

2) They also had Fried tied with DeSantis last month and didn't poll Crist. Now according to their inaccurate methodology, Ron is leading Fried by 3-4 points and tied with Crist. So would that not technically mean that Ron has actually expanded his lead inspite the COVID surge in Florida? What?

3) It says it has DeSantis up by 2% in Tampa Bay, 51% in Palm Beach!, and tied in Orlando (LMFAOOOOO). But Ron is allegedly down big in Miami, which swung heavily Republican in 2020. Crist getting 20% of the Republican vote as well (he barely got any of the Republican vote as an independent in 2010, and siphoned off far more Dem support) makes no sense.




I know certain people on here love wishcasting about Florida, but if this poll is really your best source, I do not know what to tell you. I may not take you seriously no matter how hard you try to sell me this gobbledygook- but some of you might want a career in sales, because you lot are brilliant at attempting to justify this drivel.

[THG]

First of all, calm down. Second of all, I do not think this needed an entire new thread. You can air your grievances about the pollster in the original.

Fair enough- this is simply a compilation of the worst hits of the aforementioned pollster.

[THG]

1) https://thehill.com/campaign-polls/414865-poll-gillum-leads-desantis-by-7-points-in-florida-governor-race

^ This was before the election in 2018.

Yeah, remember the now infamous Gillum+7 poll? It was them. Using their own logic DeSantis probably would defeat Crist by 7 or 8 points (which is what I expect the margin to be in 2022).

Lol you are linking to a Quinnipiac poll.

This is how the polling outfit "St. Pete Polls" actually has performed:

In the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election, it underestimated the Republican margin by 4.5% (final poll D+1.1%)
In the 2018 U.S. Senate Election in FL, it underestimated the Republican margin by 3.8% (final poll D+3.7%)
In the 2018 Florida Gubernatorial Election, it underestimated the Republican margin by 4.5% (final poll D+4.1%)

They also had Fried tied with DeSantis last month, and had this big hit:

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/280161-st-pete-polls-andrew-gillum-holds-5-point-lead-heading-into-election-day/

I cannot fathom defending such a garbage poll, lol. They have been consistently terrible and cannot figure out sample sizes. And they’re especially horrible months or years before an election.

[THG]

You are sweating sooo hard over a poll in August. Has the possibility that your new god-emperor may not be invulnerable shattered your brain or something?

You’re the one touting a historically garbage poll as fact, not me.

I simply get annoyed when people begin to act like garbage polls from a year before the election are indicative of anything- especially when they’re so obviously incorrect.

[THG]

You are sweating sooo hard over a poll in August. Has the possibility that your new god-emperor may not be invulnerable shattered your brain or something?

You’re the one touting a historically garbage poll as fact, not me.

I simply get annoyed when people begin to act like garbage polls from a year before the election are indicative of anything- especially when they’re so obviously incorrect.

It's indicative of the current state of the electorate, which is all that polls ever are or claim to be; their track record has a mild Dem house effect but it's generally pretty good. You're concluding that it's "obviously incorrect" based on your personal biases — you don't want this poll to be true. But, unfortunately, that's not how polling works.

Considering the fact that they had Gillum and Nelson winning by 5 or so points in their final poll and Biden winning by anywhere from 1 to 6 points in Florida, I'd say that they are certainly not indicative of the current state of the electorate in Florida.

I know that this poll isn't true, because they have historically been off by around 5 points at a MINIMUM. This means that my opinion isn't based off of personal biases but facts.

You may want it to be true, but it isn't, and if you choose to use a poll that has historically been wrong by around 5 points at minimum, feel free to do so. It doesn't make you any more correct or any less delusional. 

[THG]

The pollster has had some flaws in the past but the news can't hurt badly for Crist no matter how you spin it.

I always thought that DeSantis wasn't going to win by any more than a Bush 2004 margin and that if he was approaching double-digits, it's going to be a very good night for the GOP in general.

I always had DeSantis winning by 5-9 points vs Charlie.

I don’t expect him to win by 15 like some people on here do.