If only Trump urged union in 2020.
Yes and it ended up being really bad not only for the nation but the GOP. If he did:
- The GOP does way better in 2022
- Trump comes back and easily wins in 2024
So its very possible Trump not doing this kept republicans from having the Presidency, a solid House Majority and 60 senate seats come Jan 2025.
He would never manage 60 senate seats lol
Let's say Trump immediately concedes and behaves himself. Looking immediately at the GA senate runoffs, I actually think Kelly Loeffler would still have lost to Raphael Warnock; she was unpopular and Warnock was definitely a much stronger candidate than her (there's a reason there was a small-but-significant overperformance by Warnock over both Biden and Ossoff). Perdue would probably have held on, though. That means a 51-49 R senate for the 117th congress.
Looking ahead to 2022, given just how much Walker won by and the fact that there was no real opposition candidate to him, GA would've gone the same as in OTL. Maybe McCormick would've won the PA-SEN primary, but given the way he's campaigning rn in OTL, I think he would still have been portrayed as "out-of-touch" the way that Oz ultimately was, and lost the election.
Masters won the AZ primary as much because he was supported by Theil as because he was supported by Trump, and he was a crappy candidate who would've lost to Kelly even without the Big Lie (he lost by nearly 5 points in OTL).
Really only NV was close enough to flip in 2022, and I think maybe Laxalt could've won if he hadn't had to peddle the election lie. So that makes it 52-48 R.
Now kindly explain how you see the GOP flipping
8 more seats this year to get to the 60 seat mark?
Solid house majority is also pretty far-fetched...the Republicans have proven themselves unfit of governing as the majority, and tbh, the speakership debacles have less to do with Trump's Big Lie and more to do with the rise of the far-right generally. With the sh**tshow that's been going on in the House of Representatives since last year, I firmly believe that even if the GOP held a majority in 2024, it would not be that wide.
