What Senate races see the biggest leftward+rightward swings from 2018? (user search)
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  What Senate races see the biggest leftward+rightward swings from 2018? (search mode)
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Author Topic: What Senate races see the biggest leftward+rightward swings from 2018?  (Read 486 times)
Schiff for Senate
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« on: April 20, 2024, 10:22:30 PM »

Rightward is obviously WV, hands down. There's going to be a 30-point rightward swing from 2018 (D+3) at the absolute bare minimum. Barring that...barring that let's see some other contenders for rightward (ranked):

ND: This is a huge one people didn't notice, but in all likelihood it'll have the second biggest rightward swing after WV...only R+11 in 2018, this year R+30 or so is a reasonable guess (R+20 swing)
MD: D+35 in 2018, this year it'll be somewhere between D+15 and D+20 in all likelihood (so R+15 rightward swing at least)
TN: R+10 in 2018, will probably be about R+25 this year (R+15 swing)
MN: D+24 in 2018, will end up around, say, D+10-12 (so just behind TN)
FL: Statistical tie in 2018, this year Scott will win by high single-digits, maybe double-digits (R+10 swing or so)
MO/IN: R+6 to R+16ish (roughly R+10 swing)

For leftward, off the top of my head only UT really sticks out, and it'll most likely be the winner for leftward swing. Romney won by 32 points; I expect Curtis to do around 10 points worse than that, maybe.
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Schiff for Senate
CentristRepublican
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*****
Posts: 12,423
United States


« Reply #1 on: April 20, 2024, 10:24:14 PM »

How has no one mentioned MD for rightward? Cardin won by 35 points and even if Hogan loses (which I still think he does for now), it will be a hell of a lot closer than that.

Hogan is definitely losing, and it won't be as close as people think. I'd say a 15 point loss is probably about right, which would place MD in 3rd place just behind ND.
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