2022 or 2024, which would be easier for Hogan to win?

[Schiff for Senate]

Definitely 2022. As S019 noted, while overall the year wasn't that bad for Democrats, they did underperform in some deep blue states (cough cough NY and CA). MD does have fundamental demographic differences from those two (especially CA), and Moore and Van Hollen did win in full-blown landslides, but there's the fact to consider that both of their opponents were very far-right. The amount of crossover appeal a moderate R like Hogan might have is probably underestimated here; I think Hogan would most likely hold Van Hollen (who, fwiw, isn't some deeply-entrenched, widely-popular longtime incumbent) under 60%, at least.

Meanwhile 2024 will be a presidential election year, so there'll be less liberal support for a guy like Hogan. Hogan will need to be careful about Trump, too; the more he distances himself from Trump (and Trump will definitely not embrace him by any means), the more support he might have among suburban Ds in places like Anne Arundel County - but it could come at the cost of some hardcore MAGA Republicans who refuse to vote for Hogan (and leave ballot blank or vote third-party).