How can a Presidential candidate win with zero Southern states?

[Schiff for Senate]

Like this:


(BTW, in modern times, Maryland is a northeastern state, not a southern state. What it was 150 year ago during the Civil War and Reconstruction doesn't matter.)

The term "Mid-Atlantic" exists for a reason. I wouldn't go nearly so far as to characterize MD as "northeastern" (DE, probably, but MD is too far south for that), but yes, it's definitely not southern, either.

Imo the South is all of the former Confederacy, excluding TX (huge swaths of it are much more western than southern) and FL (geographically it's Deep South ofc, but the same historical vs contemporary argument you made is very well applied to FL - today, it's got a ton of Midwestern/Northeastern transplants, a lot of Hispanics in the Southeast, etc.; really only the north of it - Little Dixie - can be characterized as southern).

[Schiff for Senate]

Not sure it can happen without any of the Census South, but it's not outlandish at all for a Democrat to at least theoretically win without the Former Confederacy - yes, even Virginia.  Is it likely?  No, it is extremely unlikely.  But states aren't math problems that only move in relation to each other based on CuRrEnT tReNdS.  The overwhelming odds say that any Democrat getting to 270 already has Virginia in the bag, but it's at least somewhat conceivable that some really unique circumstances or an odd matchup could give us this map or something:

I can imagine a theory that on paper at least isn't too outlandish. If Youngkin somehow maintained popularity in VA and managed to stay relevant through 2028 (here, the one-term limit is really quite a hindrance), and then managed to win the GOP nomination, this map wouldn't be a shock by any means.

Although GA certainly complicates matters, as it appears it's only going to trend further left between now and 2028, which would make a GOP victory there quite an upset.