Which governors race will Republicans overperform the most compared to 2018?

[Schiff for Senate]

Kansas, Iowa, New York, and New Mexico

I will include Vermont and New Hampshire since the question asked in relation to 2018 not 2020

Georgia can be a sleeper, if Kemp wins the primary (which he likely does) polling is pointing towards a margin of over 5 pts against Abrams. That wouldn't be as massive as the others on the list but a 4 or 5 pt swing in what is considered a deeply polarized state would be pretty impressive.

Isn't Scott retiring? I believe he is, and if so, the GOP will not come even remotely close to Scott's 15-point win in the state back in 2018, red wave (or even red tsunami, if there hypothetically was one) or no.

Also I can't see Kemp win by over 5 points.

[Schiff for Senate]

Pennsylvania by net, since Wolf won by 18 last time.

Yeah it blows my mind what an electoral titan Wolf was. In 2014 (a red wave year) he won by like 9 or 10 points, and in 2018, he won by 18 and won PA16 (district in northwest PA that broke for Trump by a solid 18 points). I don't get why he was so popular and had so much crossover appeal given that he seemed to be pretty much a standard liberal Democrat, but whatever. In 2022, I don't expect Democrats to hold the governorship (if they win it at all) by more than a point.