Post bold 2022 predictions

[Schiff for Senate]

-Contrary to expectations Republicans have greater success in the Senate, flipping AZ, GA and NV.

-The House while it still flips only gives the GOP a 10 seat gain for a 223-212 house.

-PA GOV is to the right than either MI GOV or WI GOV.

-WI SEN is to the right of NC SEN.

-There's one highly shocking upset, what it is I couldn't tell you but there will be one highly surprising result whether it be in the House, Senate or in the Governors races.

-DeWine survives Renacci's primary challenge.

-

The fifth one's bound to happen. Sixth one seems likely. 4th one's pretty plausible. The only legitimately bold takes here are the first three, particularly the first two.

Anyway, my bold take is Rubio cruises to reelection (not a hot take) and FL SEN is more Republican than OH SEN (hot take).

[Schiff for Senate]

ME-GOV is to the right of NV-GOV

I mean, I know it's supposed to be bold, but this is honestly very unlikely. I know you theorize about ME trending rightwards, but the truth is, it won't because while rural ME02 trends rightward, the coastal and (I daresay) urban ME01 is actually trending leftwards (though only slightly since 2012). So ME will get redder for a bit more, but ME02 will lose population and ME01 will gain population, and ME will stay blue, by at least Clinton's 3 point margin.

[Schiff for Senate]

ME-GOV is to the right of NV-GOV

I mean, I know it's supposed to be bold, but this is honestly very unlikely. I know you theorize about ME trending rightwards, but the truth is, it won't because while rural ME02 trends rightward, the coastal and (I daresay) urban ME01 is actually trending leftwards (though only slightly since 2012). So ME will get redder for a bit more, but ME02 will lose population and ME01 will gain population, and ME will stay blue, by at least Clinton's 3 point margin.

I agree that ME is not really heading dramatically for the Republican column, and it certainly won't be to the right of NV (not least because Sisolak has nothing going for him). However there's good reason to believe that ME-Gov has a chance of going red this cycle, and it's much more of a credible Republican target than say, Minnesota.

I agree MN is much less likely to go Republican than ME, but that doesn't mean either are very feasible targets or that ME is likelier to flip than NV. Here are my ratings -
MN: Safe D
ME: Lean D
NV: Tilt D (much closer to Tossup than to Lean)